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January 2019 Discussion

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 11:30 PM, weatherwiz said:

That storm next week almost screams an icing scenario for somewhere in NE. Almost a perfect setup for cold air to just drain into the region. Might be tough for southern areas to remain all frozen, but this could be nasty somewhere. 

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We’ll take it. In a winter that won’t winter.. beggars can’t be choosers 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 11:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ll take it. In a winter that won’t winter.. beggars can’t be choosers 

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People get too impatient with winter every year lol. December has never historically been a big snow month, although the trend the past several-plus years has been some brutal Decembers. There is a ton of potential moving forward and if the changes within the stratosphere and the PV transpire like what has been hinted we will be dealing with some pretty active times. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 11:30 PM, weatherwiz said:

That storm next week almost screams an icing scenario for somewhere in NE. Almost a perfect setup for cold air to just drain into the region. Might be tough for southern areas to remain all frozen, but this could be nasty somewhere. 

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Yeah I could def see some ice with that setup for a time. We'll see what it looks like as we get closer. It's kind of weird we've been tracking this thing for like 2 days already but it's still 6 days out. Long time to go yet. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 11:35 PM, weatherwiz said:

People get too impatient with winter every year lol. December has never historically been a big snow month, although the trend the past several-plus years has been some brutal Decembers. There is a ton of potential moving forward and if the changes within the stratosphere and the PV transpire like what has been hinted we will be dealing with some pretty active times. 

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No surprise that our two good decembers in the past 6 years were both La Niña or cold neutral (2013 and 2017) and the 3 garbage decembers were all El Niño. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 11:35 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I could def see some ice with that setup for a time. We'll see what it looks like as we get closer. It's kind of weird we've been tracking this thing for like 2 days already but it's still 6 days out. Long time to go yet. 

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Yeah this signal has been there for a few days now, but like you said still a long way to go. If the synoptic setup verifies as is with that omega-block look that high to the north goes nowhere. This would be a rather dynamic (and fast moving) system and I'm sure there would be one heck of a frontogenetic band. It would be nice if that system could like change the pattern a bit but even days after it still looks like the central part of the country remains in the favor for cyclogenesis. More Plains blizzards and SE severe 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 11:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

No surprise that our two good decembers in the past 5 years were both La Niña or cold neutral (2013 and 2017) and the 3 garbage decembers were all El Niño. 

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Anytime there is a Nino on hand December is pretty much cooked. Plus when you factor in unfavorable blocking/stratosphere we have had as well as a whole. 

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dmillz25

dmillz25

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 11:30 PM, weatherwiz said:

That storm next week almost screams an icing scenario for somewhere in NE. Almost a perfect setup for cold air to just drain into the region. Might be tough for southern areas to remain all frozen, but this could be nasty somewhere. 

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I like the red! Congratulations on becoming an official meteorologist!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 10:26 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I will never forget you standing in the highway just about creaming our pants on TV with the best snow growth ever. I was dryslotted at the time but somehow as saved by a band and ended up with 13 or so

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Even I know that Clip of Ryan standing there as dinner plate dendrites ripped down at 4/hr.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 11:44 PM, Spanks45 said:

That looks like that would have been awesome here in Newtown, I wonder how much they got? I spent 25 years in Millersville PA and only experienced 9 double digit storms from 83 to 2008 (93, 96, 2003 were all 20+)

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Prob 2FT. Everyone from NYC to HFD cashed in with 20+. In a bad pattern and a bad winter, we was lucky.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2019 at 11:35 PM, weatherwiz said:

People get too impatient with winter every year lol. December has never historically been a big snow month, although the trend the past several-plus years has been some brutal Decembers. There is a ton of potential moving forward and if the changes within the stratosphere and the PV transpire like what has been hinted we will be dealing with some pretty active times. 

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Congrats on your new colors.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

18Z FV3 shows one way this could not work out. Confluence in Canada is weaker, high is weaker and further north and drifts east. This allows low to track further north and secondary doesn’t get going far enough south to lock in cold air. I find this scenario more believable in the recent regime than a stronger high and a further south snowier scenario for more weenies. I’d rather expect less and get pleasantly surprised if this works out lol. Easier on the psyche.


.

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2019 at 1:29 AM, snowgeek said:

18Z FV3 shows one way this could not work out. Confluence in Canada is weaker, high is weaker and further north and drifts east. This allows low to track further north and secondary doesn’t get going far enough south to lock in cold air. I find this scenario more believable in the recent regime than a stronger high and a further south snowier scenario for more weenies. I’d rather expect less and get pleasantly surprised if this works out lol. Easier on the psyche.


.

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Other than the mental psychology, I agree with this post. I right now would be pleasantly surprised if I see more than 1” and a few hrs glaze in K ASH. Climo is certainly creeping toward max winter , so more icing certainly possible. I would honestly be very surprised if this sustained as a plowable event for pike Area.

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2019 at 2:31 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Other than the mental psychology, I agree with this post. I right now would be pleasantly surprised if I see more than 1” and a few hrs glaze in K ASH. Climo is certainly creeping toward max winter , so more icing certainly possible. I would honestly be very surprised if this sustained as a plowable event for pike Area.

 

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ORH laid it out pretty well...if it can redevelop earlier into a hybrid Miller B, it could be a solid regionwide storm.  It could also track up the St Lawrence and be a SWFE to rain even in far NNE.   

However we are getting to the point where a good chunk of posters won't believe it even if models show 8-12" until they are shoveling it.  The default logic until proven otherwise these days seems to be "expect heartbreak".  

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2019 at 2:44 AM, powderfreak said:

ORH laid it out pretty well...if it can redevelop earlier into a hybrid Miller B, it could be a solid regionwide storm.  It could also track up the St Lawrence and be a SWFE to rain even in far NNE.   

However we are getting to the point where a good chunk of posters won't believe it even if models show 8-12" until they are shoveling it.  The default logic until proven otherwise these days seems to be "expect heartbreak".  

 

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I’ll make it simple. Shit pattern gives you shit results. I do think the risk is more on the warmer side, but it has a few things going for it like decent confluence to our northeast and a cold surface to start. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/3/2019 at 2:44 AM, powderfreak said:

ORH laid it out pretty well...if it can redevelop earlier into a hybrid Miller B, it could be a solid regionwide storm.  It could also track up the St Lawrence and be a SWFE to rain even in far NNE.   

However we are getting to the point where a good chunk of posters won't believe it even if models show 8-12" until they are shoveling it.  The default logic until proven otherwise these days seems to be "expect heartbreak".  

 

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How quickly things change. Especially those who are running hot this decade. 

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