dryslot Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:50 AM, powderfreak said: Yeah I've learned that in past seasons... in NNE it's definitely harder to catch up to climo than in SNE. Luckily up this way we had a huge November and have at least had some snow in December. The NNE zone southeast of the mountains though is another story but I'm not as well versed in that climo from like LEW to CON area. Expand I was closer to my december climo in November, And i'm closer to my Nov climo in december, So its like the 2 mos were flip flopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I can’t even say 14-15 without changing underwear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:55 AM, Go Kart Mozart said: Geez, we get a good (great) report on the weeklies, why all the fretting about a relaxation? Expand You honestly want to lock weeks 3 and 4 of the weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:57 AM, CoastalWx said: I can’t even say 14-15 without changing underwear. Expand We know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Helluva chinooky on this last couple o GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:57 AM, dryslot said: You honestly want to lock weeks 3 and 4 of the weeklies? Expand Week 2 is nothing to shake a stick at either. Enjoy the ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Actually, within the next 8-10 days, the pattern changes aloft on most guidance, with the exception of the GFS operational model, the rest of the guidance suite agrees that a major coastal storm looks to impact the region in the day 10-11 timeframe. The GEFS mean has a low near the Bahamas phase with the clipper around the 5-7th of January 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 It looks like a major pattern change is coming after January 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 4:19 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It looks like a major pattern change is coming after January 4th. Expand More like Jan 10th. AK vortex retrogrades westward as the epo/pna builds northward from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: More like Jan 10th. AK vortex retrogrades westward as the epo/pna builds northward from the south. Expand Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Yeah I still think post 1/7 for anything. Maybe even longer. Even then, it's not a perfect look...but better than we have had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:10 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I still think post 1/7 for anything. Maybe even longer. Even then, it's not a perfect look...but better than we have had so far. Expand I'm smelling something..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:13 PM, moneypitmike said: I'm smelling something..... Expand Yup...starting to get that feeling. Waiting for the first inch until mid Jan is tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Oh no. Did the SOI spike cause this stall? This would result in the dead ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:27 PM, EastonSN+ said: Oh no. Did the SOI spike cause this stall? This would result in the dead ratter. Expand That’s not a bad spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:37 PM, CoastalWx said: That’s not a bad spot. Expand My bad. I thought phase 7 was warm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:39 PM, EastonSN+ said: My bad. I thought phase 7 was warm for us. Expand 7&8 are where you want to be during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 7&8 are where you want to be during the winter. Expand Thanks. What is causing the AO spike projected below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 2:04 PM, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. What is causing the AO spike projected below? Expand I just think we are seeing a lot of momentum added to the atmosphere right now. High AAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 2:04 PM, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. What is causing the AO spike projected below? Expand Probably the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 1:39 PM, EastonSN+ said: My bad. I thought phase 7 was warm for us. Expand Here’s an easy way to think about it. Everything to the left is good for us and to the right much less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Thanks all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Huge vortex gets established over the Siberian side of the arctic ocean in the medium range...that's whats helping the AO go up. I posted this a couple daysago, but it still holds true....doesn't help either that one of the PV lobes is down near Baffin Island...that is right in the AO domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 3:32 PM, ORH_wxman said: Huge vortex gets established over the Siberian side of the arctic ocean in the medium range...that's whats helping the AO go up. I posted this a couple daysago, but it still holds true....doesn't help either that one of the PV lobes is down near Baffin Island...that is right in the AO domain. Expand If my memory is serving me well , Ventrice mentioned something similar during the last week or so. I think at some point some individuals may just have to consider that the winter doesn't take a turn for the better for SNE. My expectations for this winter were and continue to be on the low side due to the El Nino. Currently SNE is finishing up one of it's least snowiest Decembers on record. And the pattern during the next couple of weeks doesn't look all that promising. It is within the realm of possibility that come mid January that parts of SNE has record low snowfall totals from 12/1 - 1/15. At this point the winter is beginning to resemble a stock in which there is far more downside than there is upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Will was only pointing out why the AO charts have it positive...that h5 map is actually pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 What an awful pattern on the gfs Pattern gets alot better on the cmc by the 7th. People are jumping off cliffs everywhere. Original forecasts for this winter was for a crappy December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Icestorm to ring in the New Year? NAM and Canadian have that look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 4:21 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: If my memory is serving me well , Ventrice mentioned something similar during the last week or so. I think at some point some individuals may just have to consider that the winter doesn't take a turn for the better for SNE. My expectations for this winter were and continue to be on the low side due to the El Nino. Currently SNE is finishing up one of it's least snowiest Decembers on record. And the pattern during the next couple of weeks doesn't look all that promising. It is within the realm of possibility that come mid January that parts of SNE has record low snowfall totals from 12/1 - 1/15. At this point the winter is beginning to resemble a stock in which there is far more downside than there is upside. Expand I think we need to see deeper into January before get worried. Honestly, this is eerily similar to 2014-2015 in a lot of ways...in fact, December was colder and had more opportunities than 2014 did, but we whiffed on them so we ended up with similar near-zero snowfall that 2014 had. Early January 2015 had big arctic cold shots mixed with torching cutters....the pattern was changing, but we were still getting on the wrong side of the initial arctic gradient...i.e., chaos continued to conspire against us even though we probably could have easily gotten a nice SWFE if the nuances lined up correctly. Finally the PNA ridge established itself further east by late January and we were off to the races. Again, I'm not predicting we will repeat that 100" in 3 weeks type insanity...but even a much toned down version (like 50" in 5 weeks) would obviously completely change the tenor of the winter. I don't see signs of failure yet in the progression. If it starts showing up, I'm definitely going to post my concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 4:47 PM, Snow88 said: What an awful pattern on the gfs Pattern gets alot better on the cmc by the 7th. People are jumping off cliffs everywhere. Original forecasts for this winter was for a crappy December Expand gfs looks like crap in the LR.. for sure.. if we use the GFS and GEFS pattern is still not there by mid January.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/28/2018 at 4:47 PM, Snow88 said: What an awful pattern on the gfs Pattern gets alot better on the cmc by the 7th. People are jumping off cliffs everywhere. Original forecasts for this winter was for a crappy December Expand The 7th is too early. Mid month looks more accurate but who knows what the SOI/MJO will do. The SOI Spike and latest MJO are definitely concerning. At the very least this will delay any pattern change. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost 2/3 of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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