CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Kind of sad when your the thee biggest Super Power on the planet and we have to rely on a European model for an accurate forecast, lol, sad I tell ya. I've saved all model runs cause I will go back and see who did the best wrt Track, Temp Profile, Accum, phasing and HP placement as it will be interesting to see who had the right idea first, who fip flopped and which was thee most steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GFS had an incremental drop in moisture for most of us. Similar to NAM. We are very much on the NW fringe of this storm. I’m a bit surprised at the bullish NWS forecast. They are definitely siding with a more phased system. 18z has not given a boost to that thinking (yet). Even if this thing jogged well SE, almost all of us would still see warning amounts. So there is that. This is what the GFS does for every storm. Euro/Meso models from here on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 FV3 seems to be holding serve on the track, just a few hours faster and a couple mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Tonight's 00Z runs will be the first ones with our system ashore and "fully sampled." Will be interested to see if any changes show up in 00Z or 12Z upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS is "All American": An Emotional Roller Coaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Tonight's 00Z runs will be the first ones with our system ashore and "fully sampled." Will be interested to see if any changes show up in 00Z or 12Z upcoming runs. The makings of our storm are currently crossing the continental divide and just about to drop out of the Rockies for some Lee Side Cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The shorter range meso models like RGEM and HRDPS certainly have this tracking farther north in the Ohio valley than the globals do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not the FV3, its been thee most steady model there is so you must be talking about the OG GFS, lol, which has also held serve for a few runs now so........ The Nam won't be helpful; until we're within 24-36 hrs until go time so tomorrow 12Z the Nam should be on point but tonight should put the last nail in the coffin as far as the CMC, GFS and Euro and no one cares about Uncle Ukie anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I won't look at meso's until tomorrow as their not that helpful beyond 24-36hrs but they are amped for sure but to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I won't look at meso's until tomorrow as their not that helpful beyond 24-36hrs but they are amped for sure but to be expected. Personally, I won't look at any model unless it gives us 18-24"+. #protip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I don't like what the NAM is selling at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I don't like what the NAM is selling at all! go on... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Don’t like that jog from WV to Delmarva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hi guys, I'm new to this forum. I wanted to see how is it looking in Henrietta, NY for this storm. Any idea how much we will be getting? (in Rochester, NY area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Oy vey, another one from KROC, lol, Just kidding, welcome to the thread and we're glad to have ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 There are many from the KROC area including our in house Met, Delta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m a very specialized scientific weather analyst too. Very smart. Just check my avatar. Lol! Henriettia is pretty well positioned to be in a double lollipop of snow. It’s south enough to get into the stronger synoptic precip and far enough north to benefit from lake enhancement. I’m not sold on the 16-24” most local Mets are calling for. I think a foot or so is a good target (right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Anyone get a peak at the 18z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 its only out to 48hr Heres NCEP precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 only goes out to 48hr so.... all bullish I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, RGEM goes into Central OH, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Wow, RGEM goes into Central OH, lol! That's what I said earlier. The mesos are farther north...common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Wow, RGEM goes into Central OH, lol! That’s what I’m talking about! Prolong that transfer as long as possible. Would love to see more models move this way. Haha. It’s deep too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So what I miss? lol! Just got done with a 13 hour shift... All I will say is the local mets did a fine job scaring the bejesus out of the general public for this storm... The market was just straight up silly today... Haven’t seen panic shopping to this level in several years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Who has the KU method for the EURO Wolf cause it applies in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That ugly AF for NYC and SNE. But rationalizations will he provided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like it ticked precip nw a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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