tim123 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Look at surface temps in upper 20s when it shows rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Hey Nick, what are your thoughts on storm totals? Thinking a general 10-20" across this area? Thats probably a decent first guess. Id beware of some of the obsene qpf being thrown out in the models. In the end, its still not a closed off system in the mid levels. Risk of less than ideal snow growth with warmer than you might expect 600 to 700mb layer where lift is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Man thats some serious cold right there, wow, They would definitely consider closing local schools in the area with children waiting for the bus when its -15F without the wind, not my kid if I had one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Man thats some serious cold right there, wow, They would definitely consider closing local schools in the area with children waiting for the bus when its -15F without the wind, not my kid if I had one! If it weren't MLK day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I mean get excited. Its been a tough winter thus far and this looks like a really nice storm for the area...but id sell widepread 3ft kuchera amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 00z GFS coming in a good bit weaker and SE thru hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 So would I for sure, lol, SWFE progressive, no real blocking still 4 days out so things can and will change but by how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, WesterlyWx said: 00z GFS coming in a good bit weaker and SE thru hour 90. Yeah, its a much more elongated low pressure center, less organized. This might help slow that NW trend but I'd still like to see a sub 1000mb system coming out of the Ohio valley. We need a happy medium here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If its a bad night of models lets at least hold it together and not have a complete meltdown yet, lol, as one model suite won't change much and there's still 20 runs to go, ! Feels like we've been tracking this thing for weeks, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Yeah, its a much more elongated low pressure center, less organized. This might help slow that NW trend but I'd still like to see a sub 1000mb system coming out of the Ohio valley. We need a happy medium here. Yeah with less phasing and the low being more strung out means plenty of room for SE shifts and lighter precip rates over WNY at least. We want it phased and strong just not too much. Oy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Jesus, the GFS is going all Ukie on us. oh man...there it is. There are tricks up this storms sleeve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: If its a bad night of models lets at least hold it together and not have a complete meltdown yet, lol, as one model suite won't change much and there's still 20 runs to go, ! Feels like we've been tracking this thing for weeks, lol! Nah. Meltdowns are more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Buf only 10" on the Kuchera maps. Uh oh. Figured something would happen at some point given how far away we are, not gonna begin melting yet but does put a small knot in my stomach tbh lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well kids, I've seen enough for tonight, off to bed. This is the gut punch I've been expecting. I'm certainly not giving up but that run is a bit of a crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Run just looks goofy. Entire thing basically turns into a cold front. Actually weakens everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The MA I bet are rejoicing, lol, watching another model head towards Uncle! Not really concerned but if the Euro holds serve, rejoice, but the MA will say its wrong, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Lack of phase would hurt us. It’s a careful balance. The 12z EURO was a once a decade storm. I’m ok with this run. It’s gonna bump around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Still gives over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Agreed, really not concerned one bit as I'm gonna grab some well needed sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Run just looks goofy. Entire thing basically turns into a cold front. Actually weakens everything Yeah, it does look goofy. Between hrs 90 and 96 looks like it jumps the low due south from KY to AL. I'll pull the "it's suffering from convective feedback" card out for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Hey wait, I know what to blame... convective feedback, hahaha. Joking aside, that secondary surface low does pop in the deep convection south of the parent storm stringing out the system and weakening the system as a whole. Hopefully it will correct away from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Great minds think alike B-lo Bumble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If the FV3 looks like that, which I seriously doubt then I'll give it some thought but its the GFS that their about to do away with in March so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Lack of phase would hurt us. It’s a careful balance. The 12z EURO was a once a decade storm. I’m ok with this run. It’s gonna bump around. Watch the Euro run the low up to Detroit and rain on us all, just to really mess with us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Canadian looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just happy to see the NW trend stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: Watch the Euro run the low up to Detroit and rain on us all, just to really mess with us... It would really do that too, thats the crazy part but I would believe it more than what the GFS is trying to sell for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Canadian looks a tad bit south of 12Z to me. But still looks like a solid thump region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 CMC looks great and its closed up to H700 which is a completely different look and its a partial phase but a nice looking system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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