Upstate/Eastern New York

[vortmax]

1 minute ago, WNash said:

Maybe after the Thursday model runs that incorporate better sampling? If this goes down the toilet I don't want to be reminded by a thread that will stay on page one of the Upstate NY/PA subforum for two years.

lol

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Probally starts at 15 to 1 ends as 25 to 1. Average 20 to 1 ratios

Was just doing back of the envelop math on Euro with Kuchera on SYR clown map totals.  16" snow at 10:1 is 1.6" liquid. To get 40" you need a 25:1 ratio. I could see storm ending as that but not the bulk of it.  

[tim123]

The thing i like is the ensambles are tightly clustered. Not one way nw and one way south east. 

[wolfie09]

[Syrmax]

Just now, tim123 said:

The thing i like is the ensambles are tightly clustered. Not one way nw and one way south east. 

Agree. Overall there is unusually good model alignment this far in advance.  

[tim123]

Actually euro gives syr over 2 inches  so 20 to 1 is ratio it has

[tim123]

Gives roc 1.8 or so. So 18 at 10 to 1 36 at 20 to 1. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

The last 4 runs of the Euro have all dropped 1mb with each run during the development stage near Missouri.  These runs are also a little more amped.  I'm nervous it just keeps ticking NW.  The southern Tier towards Bing is already getting into a mixed precip scenario with a setup like that.  

With that kind of Arctic air impinging upon the system from its Northwest, I'd think the system would somehow try to escape east or ENE, no? Unless we get a full phase, then all bets are off as we taint but for how long? Lots of difficult questions to answer now as we are still like few said four days away so one run at a time!

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

I think a good conservative amount from this far out to be telling the public is a nice foot 4 totals I would not be telling the public 18 to 24 in 5 days out from the beginning of an event no way no how but that's just me

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[vortmax]

Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I think a good conservative amount from this far out to be telling the public is a nice foot 4 totals I would not be telling the public 18 to 24 in 5 days out from the beginning of an event no way no how but that's just me

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At least until the energy is sampled on Thursday.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Whatever station whoever posted that from the Met on that station has grapefruits for balls, lol!

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[tim123]

My guess is the ensambles are showing maybe some mixing in central ny 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

That's nuts from 4.5 days out, wow! Sexy for sure!

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

My guess is the ensambles are showing maybe some mixing in central ny 

I'd bet my life at least a few are

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

Listen man if we taint for even a few hours in the heart of the storm totals will still be ridiculous so I wouldn't really worry about tainting all that much, seriously!

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[tim123]

Particularly east of syr

[vortmax]

Greart AFD out of BUF:

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Major Winter Storm Possible This Weekend...

There continues to be fairly strong consensus between the
operational GFS and ECMWF...along with many of the GEFS medium range
ensemble members...that a MAJOR storm system will track from the
southern plains to the Mid Atlantic region during the course of this
weekend. This impactful southern stream storm system is likely to
produce a plowable snowfall over our forecast area...with the risk
for over a foot of snow for large areas. As usual...this will hinge
on the exact path that the storm will take...so confidence is not
yet high enough for a winter storm watch. This concern will remain
highlighted though in the HWO product.

Breaking this event down piece by piece...the seed for this
potentially very impactful storm system can be traced all the way
back to the northern Pacific. A somewhat innocent but well defined
shortwave...seen in hemispheric WV imagery near the intersection of
the Aleutian trench and the Emperor Seamounts...will make its way
to the California coast by Thursday afternoon. After crossing the
intermountain region on Friday...the increasingly robust shortwave
will induce strong cyclogenesis over the southern Plains Friday
night. The deepening storm system will cross the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Saturday...while a wedge of high pressure over our region
will give way to a burgeoning...far reaching warm frontal boundary
and subsequent inverted sfc trough. The deepening moisture field
over our forecast area will then be lifted by a strengthening low
level jet that will impinge upon a significant tightening of a
H925-70 baroclinic zone to our south. There will also be added
support from a aloft...as an anomalously strong H25 jet of
170kts will be found over Quebec. All of this will encourage
light snow over the western counties during the morning to
overspread much of the remainder of the region during the
afternoon...with the snow likely becoming moderately heavy over
the Southern Tier. Travel conditions should rapidly deteriorate
from southwest to northeast as we push through the midday into
the afternoon.

The peak of the storm is then expected Saturday night...as the
deepening cyclone is forecast to track by to our south across
Pennsylvania. Strong frontogentic forcing ahead of the system during
the first half of the night should support moderate to heavy steady
snow across much of our forecast area with steady snow continuing
during the overnight within a well defined deformation zone to the
north-northeast of the sfc low. Its certainly worth pointing out
that the accumulating snow within the deformation zone should be
lake enhanced for sites from Wayne county westward to the IAG
Frontier. In addition...the deep forcing will remain supported by
very strong jet dynamics aloft. Again...the placement of these
various lifting mechanisms will ultimately determine the severity of
the winter storm...so stay tuned.

On Sunday...the still strengthening winter storm will chug from
eastern Pennsylvania to the New England coast. This storm track will
encourage the aforementioned deformation zone to be `dragged` to the
east across our forecast area...while significant lake enhancement
within a deepening arctic airmass will most certainly keep snowfall
intensities up. The snow at this point will have a water content
of roughly 25:1...and with strong winds of 15 to 30 mph likely...
there should be extensive blowing and drifting. If the storm
plays out as the consensus of the models are suggesting...travel
on Sunday will be difficult if not impossible in some areas.
The confidence for this scenario is still not quite high enough
for headlines... but it is advised to stay tuned for updated
forecasts and discussions.

The powerful winter storm will exit across the Canadian maritimes
Sunday night and Monday. While the synoptic snow will have ended
over our region...a persistent north to northwest flow of sub
-20c air will keep fairly widespread lake snow showers in place. There
 should still be a tight enough pressure gradient to support
 gusty winds...and again...given the low water content of the
 snow... continued blowing and drifting will be a strong
 possibility.

[tim123]

That was from Las night. At least the long range part

[BuffaloWeather]

32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

80-95% of 12" over higher in an EPS for synoptic is basically unheard of in Upstate 4 days out. 

[WxNoob]

A wise man once said you gotta smell the taint to get the biggest totals

[BuffaloWeather]

Being in bullseye 4 days out is never a good thing. However, the tightness of those Ens and consistency run to run in GFS and Euro is reassuring. 

[tim123]

Usually you get the best snow growth near the taint line

[tim123]

Big fat fluffy flakes

[Syrmax]

I know its serious when the Emperor Seamount  gets mentioned.

[tim123]

Actually one of the best write up I have seen in years from buffalo. I applaud them for doing there job. 

[CNY_WX]

3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I know its serious when the Emperor Seamount  gets mentioned.

Sounds like this guy was showing off his knowledge of sub oceanic features.

[Syrmax]

1 minute ago, CNY_WX said:

Sounds like this guy was showing off his knowledge of sub oceanic features.

Probably a double major in Oceanography. The tell will be if we see the Laurentian Abyssal mentioned.

[wolfie09]

Wpc continues to trend wetter..

 

[CNY_WX]

16 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Probably a double major in Oceanography. The tell will be if we see the Laurentian Abyssal mentioned.

[Syrmax]

If the Ukie, Tropic Thunder, JMA and ICON models score a coup with this system, as is being suggested/wishcasted elsewhere, I think we will all go insane.