rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z GFS a beautiful thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: That avatar is a sight for sore eyes! Jump on in, the water is perfect! Hey Delta! Love the analog you posted earlier....and yeah....we need to watch for mixing issues....would be a close call if the models, at this point, are off by 30-50 miles in the track. This may be the case where we DON'T want the southern stream to amp up anymore. There will be plenty of theta-e out in front....(18 hrs. of mod. snow beats front end>6 hrs. mixing>backend deformation...) Impressed with the baroclinicity as modeled with this upcoming event (and even moreso, as depicted by some models down the road for potential storms)….load the moisture, lift it like a mofo, then let the mid level centers do their magic!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 When do you guys think BUF issues WSW? I’d think 4 days out is too soon. Maybe tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: When do you guys think BUF issues WSW? I’d think 4 days out is too soon. Maybe tomorrow? Thursday PM AFD is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: When do you guys think BUF issues WSW? I’d think 4 days out is too soon. Maybe tomorrow? They'll probably wait until the 1st storm is within the CONUS and models run a time or 2...my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: When do you guys think BUF issues WSW? I’d think 4 days out is too soon. Maybe tomorrow? Just now, DeltaT13 said: Thursday PM AFD is my guess. If the model consensus holds serve, then I'm in agreement with Delta. And I'd venture that some portion of our region has a 20-30 percent chance of receiving the holy grail of a Blizzard Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Thursday PM AFD is my guess. Agreed. They actually discussed the possibility this morning's AFD but I think it would be confusing with the slider on Thursday night Friday morning of 2 to 4. Thursday afternoon AFD my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 At the same time GFS is in SE NY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The only real negative I can see if that it's still Tuesday, 4-4.5 days away and basically I dont think modeling can look any better for us for this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: At the same time GFS is in SE NY lol That's waaay off from the other models for 12z Sun...yikes. Would like to see the UK reconcile it's differences! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Anyone have GEFS? FV3 is amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: That's waaay off from the other models for 12z Sun...yikes. Would like to see the UK reconcile it's differences! Ukie is the model of choice elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 The best timeframe for lake effect is 1-24 to 1-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Mike Cejka from WIVB here in Buf gave his earliest thoughts...he said 12" to 18" metro north and 18" to 24" south over the higher terrain...he stated these were on the "lower side" as some model ( guessing the Euro) is much greater!!! Can we just fast forward to thursday already!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Mike Cejka from WIVB here in Buf gave his earliest thoughts...he said 12" to 18" metro north and 18" to 24" south over the higher terrain...he stated these were on the "lower side" as some model ( guessing the Euro) is much greater!!! Can we just fast forward to thursday already!!! I think the TV mets should be quite wary of talking totals this early...I would be, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, vortmax said: I think the TV mets should be quite wary of talking totals this early...I would be, at least. Probably true but the cat's out of the bag early on this one, everywhere. I wouldnt talk totals till Thursday. Just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Amazing when most are flush hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Probably true but the cat's out of the bag early on this one, everywhere. I wouldnt tqlk totals till Thursday. Just in case. I agree with this too and trust me he's not pulling a forecast...but he wanted to show everyone what he believes this storm could be. I actually think it wise to give people enough notice to change plans if traveling or such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I agree with this too and trust me he's not pulling a forecast...but he wanted to show everyone what he believes this storm could be. I actually think it wise to give people enough notice to change plans if traveling or such. That's a good point. Someone posted here yesterday about that...flying out of KBUF Sunday IIRC. If you really have to travel I'd look at moving that up or back a day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 First glance at 96 hr euro a touch stronger with low over Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Bit more ridging ahead of it in Ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 First glance at 96 hr euro a touch stronger with low over Arkansas Any stronger and we taint for sure, lol, maybe the GEM had the right idea after all, lol! That would be hilarious, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro same look to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 slighty NW at 120.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I should say SW, maybe just a touch slower..1 mb stronger, 991mb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Near pit at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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