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BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Jan 2014 had blizzard warnings for that lake effect snow event. Could have been truly epic but lake erie was 60% frozen over at start of event already. Would have been 50-60" temps in single digits and 50 mph winds. Instead was 2' max totals around orchard park and Hamburg. 2014 had 2 blizzard warnings issued one in Jan one in March. 2014 was the best year of snowfall I will ever get. Jan LES blizzard, March synoptic blizzard and Nov. 2014. 

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Nope, but I'd have to check for sure but I doubt it.  I don't even think they were posted for the Feb 100+ so I doubt any other were worthy.  VD 07 was a strong one as well but no dice on blizzard warnings.  They happen more out by you guys apparently.  I think it goes by office too so.....

Well Feb 100+ was just localized insane lake effect in the same old places you'd expect (super impressive, but somewhat expected).  The March 12, 2014 storm was a ****ing doozy for a huge swath from Ohio through Maine.  I am willing to bet you had a blizzard warning for that (As nearly the entire KBUF CWA had them).  I'll dig a bit when I get to work.  Not sure where to start but I'll kill some time.  

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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

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58 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

So wait, burying homes is normal then over there, lol?

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/no-snow-for-the-southern-side-of-the-alps-in-the-foreseeable-future/?fbclid=IwAR21ZO2Q8RBN9QIw9PKUEupiVvFnc_xZUbrAHciZbdCl4XuXqBnKntnUBeI

i know this article is a week old but it explains what’s been going on over there. Feet of snow on the north side of the Alps and no snow and mild temperatures on the south side. 

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted

Your right Delta, we did cause here it is,  Great site where you can request any Afd Disc from any NWS office across the country! 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS 
EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT AND NEW 
JERSEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED 
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WIDESPREAD HEAVY 
SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE... 
THE HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS 
THAT WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS 
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING 
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SQUARELY ON A 
STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT IS CURRENTLY STILL IN ITS 
FORMATIVE STAGES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY 
AS A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS 
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH THE RESULTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN 
DEEPENING AND DIGGING FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ON 
ITS EASTERN FLANK...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND LIFT 
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING 
EASTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE 
COURSE OF WEDNESDAY. 

WITH SUCH A DEEP AND IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOLLOWING ALONG SUCH A 
TRACK...OUR ENTIRE AREA CAN EXPECT AN INITIAL ROUND OF MIXED LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH 
THE BULK OF THE SNOW COMING BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
EVENING...WHEN THE BEST OVERALL DYNAMICS AND LIFT WILL COME TOGETHER 
DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 18Z GUIDANCE HAS DEVIATED LITTLE 
FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS HIGH.

DIGGING INTO THE FORECAST DETAILS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD 
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY 
STARTING TO BREAK OUT ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN 
TIER. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE IN A 
SIMILAR FASHION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO 
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW...AND 
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 
150 KT JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AT THE 
ONSET...STILL-WARM TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN 
INITIAL PTYPE OF PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT RAIN...BEFORE A MIX WITH 
SLEET/SNOW AND EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW TAKES PLACE 
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. BY 
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE EXPERIENCING ALL 
SNOW...SAVE FOR AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER WHERE A NARROWING 
SWATH OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. 
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT...MIXED...AND WARM ADVECTIVE NATURE OF 
TONIGHT/S PRECIP...ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY 
SHOULD RANGE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH MOST OF THESE 
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

ON WEDNESDAY...THINGS WILL DRAMATICALLY TURN FOR THE WORSE AS THE 
DAY PROGRESSES AS THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PASSES BY TO OUR 
SOUTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...WITH A STRONG SHOT OF WARM 
AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID 
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND BOTH OF THESE OVERLAID BY A PRONOUNCED 
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT ZONE OF STRONGLY 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALSO IN PLACE AND 
ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO COMING INTO PLAY 
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL ADD UP TO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY 
SNOWFALL AREAWIDE...WITH THE WORST OF THE SNOW GENERALLY COMING 
BETWEEN THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SNOWFALL 
AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6-11 INCHES...WITH THE 
LOWEST ACCUMS NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE NY/PA 
LINE...AND THE HIGHEST OVERALL AMOUNTS COMING IN AREAS OF FAVORED 
OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. CLOSER TO THE 
NEW YORK-PENNSYLVANIA BORDER...A WINTRY MIX TO START THE DAY WILL 
ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BEFORE 
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVES A CHANGEOVER TO ALL 
SNOW BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

AS IF ALL OF THE ABOVE WERE NOT ENOUGH...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TO 
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE WINDS LIKELY PEAKING 
DURING THE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN 
THE NORTHERLY FETCH OFF OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...STRONGEST WINDS 
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE LAKESHORES SOUTH INTO THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR. 
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO...AND 
CONFIDENCE IN THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE SNOW FORECAST IS HIGH 
ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WARNING. IT IS WORTH 
NOTING THAT A GLANCE AT THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS 
SYSTEM BEARS A VERY STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE MARCH 7 1999 STORM THAT 
BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE ROCHESTER AREA ALONG WITH OTHER 
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HAVE UPGRADED THE 
CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THE SOUTHERN TIER 
COUNTIES OF WYOMING/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY AS WELL AS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL NOT BE 
EXPOSED TO THE FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS SUCH WINDS SHOULD NOT BE 
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A BLIZZARD WARNING. ALONG THIS 
SAME VEIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST 
SHY OF BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA OF 35MPH. NONETHELESS...I DO NOT 
WANT TO DOWNPLAY THE HAZARDS IN THESE AREAS AS THERE WILL STILL BE 
HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL STILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY 
HAZARDOUS...EVEN OUTSIDE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREAS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY UNDER 
STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 
TEENS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND CHILLS FALLING TO NEAR 
ZERO. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL OF THIS WILL MAKE THIS AFTERNOON/S 
RATHER MILD HIGH TEMPS SEEM LIKE A VERY DISTANT MEMORY...AND WILL 
MAKE AN ALREADY MISERABLE DAY SEEM EVEN WORSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN INTENSE WINTER STORM WILL TRACK FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD ON 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THIS TAPERING 
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DROP 
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...DOWN TO -20C AT OR JUST BELOW 850 
MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL 
ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THE WORST 
CONDITIONS TO BE BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND SYRACUSE ON WEDNESDAY 
EVENING...WITH A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW PRODUCING NEAR 
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

EXPECT FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROF AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN AS SYNOPTIC 
LIFT WANES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND DEEPENING 
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER SOUTH 
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AIDED BY SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ACROSS ANY HIGHER 
TERRAIN.

OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...WITH 
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTING AN INTENSE STORM...WITH ONLY MINOR 
DISAGREEMENTS IN TRACK AND TIMING. PREFER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION 
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM) FOR QPF/SNOW FORECAST...SINCE THESE ARE MORE 
LIKELY TO CAPTURE BOTH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. EVEN 
THESE ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE WITH REGARD TO LAKE EFFECT...MEANWHILE 
SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FLUFFY AS THE BEST LIFT SETTLES 
IN A ZONE FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TOO...WITH TEMPERATURES IN 
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST PLACES BY THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED COLD 
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 
TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WIND 
CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION 
THURSDAY...AND BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING. DRIER 
AIR WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER 
TROF...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FORECAST TO 
LIFT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE WIND SHIFT. 
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT ONLY MODEST 
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THEN WARMER AIR WILL BUILD 
IN ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
BUT POSSIBLY SPARKING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH 
WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING A CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE 
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR 
REGION. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY 
NIGHT AN INTO SATURDAY.

HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS DEBATABLE...WITH THE 
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY ON TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY 
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UTILIZING A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE...SUNDAY 
SHOULD BE A CHILLY DAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. THE AIR MAY BE 
COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF EAST OR 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A COASTAL 
LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS 
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL BRING FAIR 
BUT CHILLY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THIS 
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING 
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...BUT STILL PROBABLY A FEW 
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY THIS EVENING 
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE AIDING 
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HZ ACROSS THE AREA. -RA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT THIS -RA TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND BRIEFLY 
CHANGE OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR 
TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW...COMMENSURATE WITH A DETERIORATION TO 
IFR CONDITIONS...AFTER 06Z. THIS TRANSITION MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE 
FOUND. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL INCLUDING KOLE/KELZ MAY 
EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF PL/FZRA BEFORE PRECIP TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW 
AROUND 12Z. 

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL 
UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A RAPID 
DETERIORATION TO IFR/LIFR AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS DURING 
THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 
35KT BY WED AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN 
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA 
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z. IN ADDITION 
TO THE LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS...SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW 
MAY FURTHER DELAY GROUND OPERATIONS AT AREA TERMINALS. 

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIFR/IFR IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SNOW IN MOST 
LOCATIONS...WITH THE SNOW LINGERING LONGEST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW 
SHOWERS. 
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS 
EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT AND NEW 
JERSEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING NORTHERLY 
TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS THEN DIMINISHING LATER WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
     NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY 
     FOR NYZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
     NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY 
     FOR NYZ020-021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY 
     FOR NYZ012.
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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

Great Find CNYWX!  I remember tracking that storm and being extremely excited when we upgraded to blizzard warnings.  I took off from work to chase that one.  I then went to Gore mountain a few days after and it was glorious.  That storm is the last really Huge synoptic hit that I clearly recall for the entire area. 

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