SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It will be unfrozen then but will quickly freeze lol we will have a few days of potential. That cold won’t happen though. Fv3 has been terrible. I hope she stays open so we can get at least one lake storm this year. Sure a half dozen synoptic events in 2 weeks are great but just not the same as a good old lake dumping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I hope she stays open so we can get at least one lake storm this year. Sure a half dozen synoptic events in 2 weeks are great but just not the same as a good old lake dumping! It’s dumped a lot, just all on ski country. 100” down there already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 We are in the midst of potential historical weather in upstate NY , the kind that could become an analog talked about for decades like 77, 85, 2014 and 15. I don't think it's out of bounds to realistically discuss 2 to 3 feet of snow over a good portion of upstate within the next 10 days and bitter cold thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 54 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lots of times. Blizzard of 85 is the benchmark 3-4 feet across all of Erie county. Feb 2007 brought 3-4’ across buffalo south towns. The question was if you’ve had one ‘this’ year. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The question was if you’ve had one ‘this’ year. Lol This year no lock ins on a SW flow. All quick hits and swinging bands. Like 3” tops each hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: This year no lock ins on a SW flow. All quick hits and swinging bands. Like 3” tops each hit. We had that NW flow that ended up totaling about 5”, but it was over such a long period that it may not have even been advisory level. Other than that, a couple bands that swing through and left 2-3”. This has been the worst lake effect season in years here. Fingers crossed we get something decent before the freeze-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, WNash said: We had that NW flow that ended up totaling about 5”, but it was over such a long period that it may not have even been advisory level. Other than that, a couple bands that swing through and left 2-3”. This has been the worst lake effect season in years here. Fingers crossed we get something decent before the freeze-up. Here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 00z GFS not a bad look for thurs night into Friday. Bit of an appetizer...2-4” across the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS is amped, early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Great track ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Decent hit on 00z GFS...about 10-12”. I wouldn’t expect much more due to progressive nature of the run. If this materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Kuchera 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 As event firms up will need to look at model soundings to see if we can get best UVV and dendrite zone to align. Kuchera probably shows high end potential given its incorporation of thermal profile in snow ratios but other factors have a say also. this isn’t really a classic nor’easter...more of a lee side low that follows a thermal boundary ENE. And wow, GEM caved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS shows a closed 700mb low forming on the lee side of the Rockies but it opens up as it moves east. So this thing looks to mainly tap a lot of gulf moisture and sling it north along the boundary the slp follows. So winds shouldn’t be much of an issue during the storm. You can see the progression below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Only 3 more days of model runs to go... although it does look promising. Being inside of h144 helps increase confidence in at least a 6” storm, unless there are major shifts in NWP over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukmet was pretty far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Only 3 more days of model runs to go... although it does look promising. Being inside of h144 helps increase confidence in at least a 6” storm, unless there are major shifts in NWP over the next couple of days. Do you know every time a potential system enters the pic, the first thing I do is block Syrmax, RLMAO, cause hes the biggest debbie downer there is and I dont want any negative posts from here on in, lol! Then as soon as it passes, I unblock him!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Obviously I'm joking cause I wouldn't be able to see that post if I did, lol. Anyway, this event ain't going anywhere as most globals are locked in so get ready and dont get to crazy with each model perturbation E-W-N-S so good luck to all!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro coming in NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just noticed Daves favorite model, the GEM caved, as it usually does, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro coming in NW..RLMAOSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I think it did come closer on euro. Not much bit it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 With ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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