BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I wish we could post short video clips on here. Might have to start a YouTube account and post links to videos of the lake events here. I have a channel with lots of LES events. Some of my workouts as well haha. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3LutXF6kA73itxjVZ9h7-w?view_as=subscriber I put together this slideshow of my all time favorite LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS looks good for overrunning wolf. Do you have GEFS solutions? Interested to see how many amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I have a channel with lots of LES events. Some of my workouts as well haha. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3LutXF6kA73itxjVZ9h7-w?view_as=subscriber I put together this slideshow of my all time favorite LES event. Wow, you have lots of videos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 BW check this out...its an excerpt from Don Paul on the Blizzard of '85...check out those temps!!! How did snow flakes even form in cold air like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Ggem cuts this right over us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ggem cuts this right over us.. Good thing that model is as reliable as a broken compass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 https://www.nytimes.com/1985/01/22/nyregion/snowfall-brings-buffalo-region-to-a-standstill.html This one was before my time in Buffalo, so did a bit of research. Without seeing a weather map, sounds like the PV made a journey into Ontario. Probably southwest of Hudson Bay to get such incredibly cold temps at BUF with a mean SW wind. It would be interesting to see what triggered this event in terms of broad scale circulation. Must have been some wicked blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 https://www.nytimes.com/1985/01/22/nyregion/snowfall-brings-buffalo-region-to-a-standstill.html This one was before my time in Buffalo, so did a bit of research. Without seeing a weather map, sounds like the PV made a journey into Ontario. Probably southwest of Hudson Bay to get such incredibly cold temps at BUF with a mean SW wind. It would be interesting to see what triggered this event in terms of broad scale circulation. Must have been some wicked blocking. Jan 18 85 - Jan 22 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow, you have lots of videos! I was on CNN and NBC for that Nov 2014 event. I think I'm over 500K views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Jan 18 85 - Jan 22 85 . Wow! Looks like the PV dropped straight down over the west side of Lake Superior. That would certainly ruin your outdoor plans at BUF...Thanks for posting - great maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Totals of up to 47" reported in southtowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Totals of up to 47" reported in southtowns. So the really strange part or fascinating part is the date of the 85 Blizzard and the timeframe we are watching...just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just going through this book, some big time events throughout our history that many don't know about. Just look at these totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: So the really strange part or fascinating part is the date of the 85 Blizzard and the timeframe we are watching...just saying... Yeah the 0 GFS wasn't as good, pattern look weird compared to its ENS. A more westerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Just going through this book, some big time events throughout our history that many don't know about. Just look at these totals. I was flipping through that thing a little earlier tonight. Love that book so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: So the really strange part or fascinating part is the date of the 85 Blizzard and the timeframe we are watching...just saying... 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Totals of up to 47" reported in southtowns. Don’t know if I’ve ever seen a “spread the wealth” event look better than that. Is that map from the Buf blizzard book? I need to track that down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Don’t know if I’ve ever seen a “spread the wealth” event look better than that. Is that map from the Buf blizzard book? I need to track that down... No, its from WNYlakeeffect. He lived in Jamestown and put together maps of every LES event off Erie that is documented. Unfortunately Accuweather forums closed and they are no longer accessible. He posts here once in awhile and hope he has a storage of them somewhere. He graduated college and moved to NYC I believe. But every winter weather enthusiast in Buffalo needs to have this book on their bookshelves. It's unreal the storms that have hit this area. @WNYLakeEffect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Look at that cold!!! Hmmm compares right up with 85 again! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: No, its from WNYlakeeffect. He lived in Jamestown and put together maps of every LES event off Erie that is documented. Unfortunately Accuweather forums closed and they are no longer accessible. He posts here once in awhile and hope he has a storage of them somewhere. He graduated college and moved to NYC I believe. But every winter weather enthusiast in Buffalo needs to have this book on their bookshelves. It's unreal the storms that have hit this area. @WNYLakeEffect Yeah, I haven't done anything in quite some time, but I still have all of the stuff saved at home. Some of the data (newspapers, COOP records) was either hard to find or process, but it's all out there. The Blizzard Book was a neat throwback -- many of the accounts of the storms it lists from before 1900 can be found on free(-ish) newspaper archives from the New York Times and Google. I based any of my maps from before the mid-90s entirely on COOP observations, which are inconsistent and geographically sparse, so they're very approximate. I'd do the maps differently nowadays. At the time, I overlaid multi-day totals on the map and tried my best to make contours that took into account the local tendencies and variations we experience. Later I attempted to create a mapping program in Python, but I was unsatisfied with the results (I needed to deal with way more data to make somewhat decent maps than my skills or time allowed, and it's really hard to make a program that considers local geography when plotting contours). It could absolutely be accomplished, though -- anyone that knows how to deal with masses of data, which can be pulled from databases in commonly used formats, could make a decent reconstruction of daily weather across the eastern US from 1893 to the present. I vaguely recall a product from some NOAA branch that sort of did this, but the execution wasn't exactly how I'd envisioned it. Someday I'll revisit everything and do it my own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, WNYLakeEffect said: Yeah, I haven't done anything in quite some time, but I still have all of the stuff saved at home. Some of the data (newspapers, COOP records) was either hard to find or process, but it's all out there. The Blizzard Book was a neat throwback -- many of the accounts of the storms it lists from before 1900 can be found on free(-ish) newspaper archives from the New York Times and Google. I based any of my maps from before the mid-90s entirely on COOP observations, which are inconsistent and geographically sparse, so they're very approximate. I'd do the maps differently nowadays. At the time, I overlaid multi-day totals on the map and tried my best to make contours that took into account the local tendencies and variations we experience. Later I attempted to create a mapping program in Python, but I was unsatisfied with the results (I needed to deal with way more data to make somewhat decent maps than my skills or time allowed, and it's really hard to make a program that considers local geography when plotting contours). It could absolutely be accomplished, though -- anyone that knows how to deal with masses of data, which can be pulled from databases in commonly used formats, could make a decent reconstruction of daily weather across the eastern US from 1893 to the present. I vaguely recall a product from some NOAA branch that sort of did this, but the execution wasn't exactly how I'd envisioned it. Someday I'll revisit everything and do it my own way. I knew you were still around somewhere! Thanks for the response. It would be awesome to get a dedicated website or host server to keep track of the history of all the events throughout the years. Let me know if you need any help with the maps, would love to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 complex storm we have here . Guidance showing a 2nd low riding a CF. Euro was another huge hit for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Eps continues to be more amped than OP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Hp really screws us over on the OP.. Obviously we need it better positioned .. Euro drops it down at the perfect time for the MA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Here is a better look.. Need HP farther north (slower) or the LP to speed up a little lol It all comes down to timing..Still have 7 days to figure it out. 6z GFS was rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here is a better look.. Need HP farther north (slower) or the LP to speed up a little lol It all comes down to timing..Still have 7 days to figure it out. 6z GFS was rain lol Suppression is my big concern. Good to see EPS loosening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 GFS is a nice overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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