CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Thats no mesolow, lol, its an additional SW as there's also one straddling the PA/NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Nice mesolow over LO heading due East right for Matts house, lol! 12+ is over the highest elevations of Madison and Onondaga counties. I would think Oswego would be on the lower end of the spectrum as far as totals are concerned but this system definitely has some surprises in store for some of us. Id imagine, if we change over before the main shield of precip moves on off to the NE of us, then we stand the best chance of seeing higher accumulations but we gotta see how this LP moves. If it moves over KALB then we stand a better chance of seeing the tail end of the Def band but it may head towards Western Mass and if that happens, then it'll shut off, and we'll have to wait for the LEnahncement to kick in later tomorrow so lots depends on this developing system to our SE. I am watching that blossom as it heads east. Wolfie first, then me...hoping it is snow. I'll keep you updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I was gonna ask, snow or mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 41 and steady rain here. Looks like we will get some measurable snow accum more towards thursday a.m. here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Flipped to snow here, sticking with no problem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Has just started to mix, Lame!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Last snowmap before the event starts unfolding.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Nws has worst case scenerio 6"-8" and best case 18"-24" I will say all the the meso models are JP the same area as the november system.. With 12"-20" for northern oswego, southern jefferson at 10-1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yeah, normally this is a good look but it is forced to transfer and jets ENE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Still 37F, lol, pathetic, seriously though WTF? Its just one of those Winters where no matter what happens it just doesn't wanna snow, period!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Back to straight rain, lol! I'm done looking, when it flips it flips, unreal though!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Same thing happened here, we flipped picked up a coating and then back to a mix lol Precip is also very light at the moment, which could be the culprit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Its actually heavy here as I'm under those heavier returns down near Phoenix and Fulton but still plain rain at 37F! The temps are straight stuck on 37 and its been there for hrs and hrs, lol! Wait, my bad, it actually went up a couple ticks to 39F from WU. Dont know how accurate it is, but doesnt matter as all levels are cold enough for snow except the surface, lol! H925 is at -3C so this warm air right off the deck has to be deep enough to change whatever is falling over to rain, wow. Models, like you said last night, between 4:30-5 and it looks like the models were off by a few ticks so a great job so far with thermals from the guidance!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Good luck everyone as it looks like there's really not gonna be a lull like I first thought as that's what usually happens, lol, but not this year as everything that should happen just doesn't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, normally this is a good look but it is forced to transfer and jets ENE.. This should come further North as soon as the GFS gets a clue! It was nowhere near us a day ago now its down over PA but man, that HP is in a perfect place for East Coast Cyclogenesis, so I think this one needs to be watched carefully as the models haven't a clue yet, and won't, until we head into a pattern change the next week. That's usually a time period when models statistically don't do so good as there's quite a bit going on when a large scale pattern change ensue's. Not saying it heads up into the GOM but a BM track is still quite plausible I'd imagine so we'll see I suppose. At least there's action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Matt, your gonna get a pounding for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I already see I'm screwed along with Brian and Phoenixwx, lol! To main bands one just to our North and on to our South with subsidence in between, lol, blowing exhaust for 2 days while everyone around us snows except that strip I just mentioned, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Still rain, just comical right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Tug is getting pounded right now and so are you, wolfie! Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 lol, the temp will notvbudge even with a stiff NW wind, unreal! It's like theres an imaginary wall in the way of us.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Upstream radars are all blossoming with lake effect and enhanced snows...should fill in nicely around here this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Still 36 and raining here. It reached 40 overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Blah lol Not a huge fan on how this one is starting.. Coming down nicely at the moment, been keeping track of the hrrr which has most of the heaviest stuff just to my east, KFZY would be lucky to see an inch by midnight if it was correct.. Radar doesn't look great at the moment..As most of this stuff will probably miss me to the east with nothing behind it for the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Snow is starting to mix in, 35 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 About a half to 3/4 of inch in Delhi, 1550' with very light snow continuing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Nothing here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Temps slowly dropping, down to 33.5 according to the nearest WU station..Flake size has increased as well..Obviously very wet in nature.. We need to drop down towards freezing soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow.2 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 A solid 1/2" out at the cabin overnight (almost managed to get the ground covered), with raging mostly cloudy skies on the way to work. A fierce winter storm storm warning for heavy lake effect snow indeed. Winterless winter continues, my bitterness level trending north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...it will be a bit of a different story initially as the airmass across that lake will really not become cold enough for true lake effect to develop until later this afternoon or early this evening. Instead...the bulk of any snows for a good chunk of today will be more orographically- enhanced in nature and primarily found east of Lake Ontario on a general northwesterly flow...with accumulations of as much as 4 to 8 inches found across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western slopes of the Adirondacks...while lower amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be more common across the lower elevations. To the southeast of Lake Ontario...a narrow swath of relatively drier air and the lack of a sufficiently cold airmass will likely preclude much in the way of lake effect until later this afternoon... after which time increasingly colder air...deepening moisture... and an increasingly northwesterly fetch will allow lake effect snows to develop and then continue right through tonight. With some directional shear in place and with less terrain enhancement to work with...the Lake Ontario lake snows will likely be less impressive than their Lake Erie counterparts...but will probably still be organized enough to produce a general 3-6" across Monroe/ Ontario counties between late today and tonight...with as much as 5-8" falling during this same time frame across the Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Southern Oswego county corridor. Meanwhile further to the north...continued orographically-driven snows will likely produce another 4-7" across the higher terrain of the rest of the eastern Lake Ontario region tonight...with another 2-4" likely across the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I love how i'm grouped in with the tug hill when im not lol "foothills", "gateway", "tug hill region" sure but not actually on the hill lol Today Snow. Areas of blowing snow after 10am. High near 34. West wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight Snow. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 22. West wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Snow. High near 22. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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