Syrmax Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This looks about right. Fun for the hills. Almost a nothingbuger elsewhere. We'll see about wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Yes it is. Trying to decide if I should head down to the hills tomorrow or Thursday. I like to chase during the heaviest snow, as opposed to at the tail end of events to see depth...so thinking late tomorrow afternoon might be best time. I'm off Thursday, Closing on my house at 2. So I'll be available after that if you want to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 A radar composite of how this event will probably play out in WNY. Deadzone is usually between Metro Buffalo and Hamburg/Eden closer to lake shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: A radar composite of how this event will probably play out in WNY. Deadzone is usually between Metro Buffalo and Hamburg/Eden closer to lake shore. You know I kinda chuckled to myself when Todd Santos said 3-6 for buffalo by Thursday night but im starting to think he's on to something. Again reminds me of the 8" in November same set up....and where I work in Lackawanna it was a dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 This is Channel 9’s snowfall forecast through 7 tomorrow night I also included Meteorologist Jim Teske’s write up He’s calling for 10-16 on the Tug for the entire event: Here is our first look at new snow later Tuesday night into 7 pm Wednesday evening. Along with the snow there are strong westerly winds causing blowing snow and reduced visibilities. **This is the first part of a long duration snowfall** Additional snow falls Wednesday night into Thursday. For planning purposes, our first estimate of total snow in the Syracuse area by late Thursday night is 5-10" Over some of the higher elevations south of Syracuse and the Tug Hill stormn totals end up at 10-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: A radar composite of how this event will probably play out in WNY. Deadzone is usually between Metro Buffalo and Hamburg/Eden closer to lake shore. I think it'll be a bit more NW as well as significantly longer-duration and quasi stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: When you live in an area such as the Tug Hill and most of the events you witness are big events, its kind of hard to get excited over 2 days of 10-20" of snow, lol, but ppl all across the NE would love to experience what were about to experience even though they say say its fake, lol, they'd love to be in it and thats a fact! 4 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Definitely a primarily NW flow event with that snow distribution. Don't underestimate the power of enhancement on the Tug in a multi-band NW flow set-up. The southern half of the Tug in particular has plenty of wide open Lake Ontario water upstream to produce nicely in these situations. Looking forward to it! Hopefully it provides... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Looks like the first SW has gone through now we await the one thats gonna spawn a surface LP somewhere over New England. It looks like its moving through Northern PA and the So. Tier from West to East with a tick NE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 There's gonna be quite a bit of Synoptic moisture with this event it looks like, so that's one variable we don't have to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Come to think of it we just had a hybrid event at the end of November, no? Picked up 14"-15" in a 2 days span.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Jamestown over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Change over time for Oswego county between 4-5am, north to south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Come to think of it we just had a hybrid event at the end of November, no? Picked up 14"-15" in a 2 days span.. That's my analog for the Niagara Frontier as we picked up 8" at KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Change over time for Oswego county between 4-5am, north to south..I think it happens way before 4-5 am, but that is what guidance is showing us, but I think as the surface LP gets going its gonna cool pretty quickly from the top down, so we'll see I suppose.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 This system is forming right over top of us but if it had got going to our South a few ticks, it would be mix to snow, thats how unlucky we are, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yeah, wouldnt surprise me.. Cold enough aloft, surface 33°-35°, could easily be snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Soaking rain here, had to be close to an inch in the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Max of 20" on the 3k nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 How much snow would you project the city of oswego to receive wolfie and cny lesfreak for the entire duration over these nwxt 2 days..and will the winds be wnw or mpre nnw fir the lake effect pprtion of the storm..? Its pouring out rain now in the city of oswego..waiting for it to change over..how much synoptix snow we looking at ..sorry im all ovwr the place its just im genuinely excited qwre under a winter storm watch and back in the snow conversation haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I'm thinking a general 6-8" for the entire area with lolli's of over a foot+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 There's gonna be a nice deformation zone that develops overhead and if we get caught under it for a few hrs at the end, we can maybe sneak in a few inches of synoptic slop before we transition over to mainly LEnhanced stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 That high pressure just kills that system later this week. Would have been an awesome synoptic event if that thing was just a little southeast as both streams phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Thats exactly what i wanted ti hear gentlemen...music to my ears.. now wolfie when you say 6-8" w lollys of a 12+ where is the best chance of them.more localized 12+ bands .ore likely to set up...also cnylesfreak the synoptic slop at the end of the deformation zone, what time frame hour wise are we looking at just to give us a general frame of reference..like.the wee hours of this a.m.? And then a lull and then the lake enhanced action will kick.in this evening..to both you guys..how do you feel about the nws snowmap they out out..you like it or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Put out** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Sitting at 33 here on the Tug...hoping a little bit of heavier precipitation can bring the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 What a brutal long range. We finally get some decent cold air and we don't get synoptic or lake effect. I've never seen anything like it. Literally 10 days in a row with temps in 20s with no snow, unheard of in Upstate in Mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Nice mesolow over LO heading due East right for Matts house, lol! 12+ is over the highest elevations of Madison and Onondaga counties. I would think Oswego would be on the lower end of the spectrum as far as totals are concerned but this system definitely has some surprises in store for some of us. Id imagine, if we change over before the main shield of precip moves on off to the NE of us, then we stand the best chance of seeing higher accumulations but we gotta see how this LP moves. If it moves over KALB then we stand a better chance of seeing the tail end of the Def band but it may head towards Western Mass and if that happens, then it'll shut off, and we'll have to wait for the LEnahncement to kick in later tomorrow so lots depends on this developing system to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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