Upstate/Eastern New York

[wolfie09]

Yet the updated P&C forecast for KFZY has 1"-3" wed night lol

Wednesday

Snow. Areas of blowing snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday Night

Snow showers. Low around 20. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

  

Ambient synoptic moisture within the dendritic snow growth zone will
make for effective snowfall rates, with possible upstream
connections to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay bringing snowfall rates 1
to 2 inches per hour. This will likely occur late in the day...over
the Southern Tier and southern Boston Hills, as well as to the
southeast of Lake Ontario.

Enjoy!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

nice excerpt from afternoon disco:

Forecast focus revolves around the continuation of accumulating lake
effect snow. Plenty of cold air aloft advecting across the lower
Great Lakes with 850 mb temperatures lowering to -18C to -15C
throughout Wednesday night through Thursday. This will result in
growing over-lake instability which will allow for lake processes to
continue. The primary steering flow regime stays relatively steady
state from the northwest throughout much of the period with only
subtle veering to north-northwesterly at times.

Profiles continuing to look favorable, suggesting plenty of moisture
above a 8-9 kft inversion Wednesday night before slowly sinking
toward 4-6 kft late in the day Thursday. Combined with an expected
fairly unidirectional speed shear through the boundary layer and
potential upstream connection, there could certainly be some
dominant banding for a period of time Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Lowering cap and along with at least some diurnal
disruption, expect the more significant lake bands to become less
intense during the day Thursday.

Cold northwest flow will continue Thursday night through at least
Friday morning before surface high pressure crests over the eastern
Great Lakes. Inversion heights are quite low at around 6K feet, but
given how cold the airmass is the favorable dendritic crystal growth
zone will still be below the inversion. This will still support
scattered light snow showers southeast of the lakes. Temperatures
will be well below average, with highs in the teens in most areas,
and single digits across the North Country. The lingering weak lake
response will slowly come to an end later Friday or Friday night.

[wolfie09]

Guess it depends where your facing. i know very little about upslope lol

While some lake effect
snow is possible early Wednesday on a west wind over the Tug Hill,
the feeling now is that a northwest wind will highlight the upslope
areas of the northwest face of the Tug Hill, such as Carthage,
Copenhagen and Fort Drum tomorrow

[TugHillMatt]

Anybody want to take a gander by posting one of BUF's maps from previous events that they think matches this well?

[BuffaloWeather]

What me and Devin are getting from this event. 

[phoenixny]

Binghamton very bullish on on a quick 4 to 8 late tonight.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
346 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

NYZ009-017-025-092100-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0001.190109T1700Z-190111T1200Z/
Northern Oneida-Southern Cayuga-Tompkins-
Including the cities of Boonville, Auburn, and Ithaca
346 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 5 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Southern Cayuga and Tompkins counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes Wednesday through Friday.

[phoenixny]

oops!

 

NYZ018-036-037-044-045-092100-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0003.190109T0500Z-190109T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0001.190109T1700Z-190111T1200Z/
Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica,
Cortland, and Norwich
346 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Additional heavy lake effect snow
  possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expected
  tonight through Wednesday morning. Winds gusting as high as 40
  mph. Additional lake effect snow accumulations of 5 to 10
  inches possible late Wednesday through Friday morning.

* WHERE...Onondaga, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland and
  Chenango counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from midnight tonight
  to noon EST Wednesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from
  Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  commute on Wednesday.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Enjoy!

Matt, you will easily see 10-20" with this event, no doubt in my mind and if the winds can veer just a bit more Westerly tomorrow morning before they head NW, you may get a bit of a surprise.  Just a spray of Moderate to at times heavy snow falling to the SE of the Lake for an extended period of time is what gives uu our biggest totals thats why yesterdays disco out of KBUF was just nuts, lol, but they changes their tune real quick.  Those soundings I showed yesterday were real, lol, and it showed exactly what KBUF mentioned in todays disco but maybe they just wanted a day more of guidance to pull the plug on a watch.  I believe we go to a warning with the morning disco unless some drastic changes happen that I don't see so.....

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Here's a good one Matt with mainly NWerly winds that blanketed the area with a ton of the white stuff!

 

LAKE EFFECT STORM
November 19 - 21, 2016

Maximum Snowfall:  Lk. Erie 12" (Warsaw); Lk. Ontario 54.5" 
(Redfield)
Duration:  36 hours +/-
Flake Scale:  3 flakes ***

The 2016-2017 lake effect season got off to an impressive and 
unusual start with a hybrid event featuring lake effect and lake 
enhanced snow embedded within a large scale (synoptic) system.  
Accumulating snow covered an unusually large area, with only the 
immediate Buffalo and Niagara Falls areas escaping with only a light 
dusting.  Northwest winds were strong through most of the event, 
producing significant blowing and drifting snow and very difficult 
travel.

A strong cold front crossed the Lower Great Lakes from west to east 
during the day of the 19th.  The airmass was only marginally cold by 
late in the day on the 19th, with lake effect rain mixed with wet 
snow developing off Lake Erie near Buffalo, changing to all snow 
across the higher terrain south of the city during the evening.  The 
heavier snow did not develop until a secondary cold front crossed 
the area on the morning of the 20th, bringing a strong push of 
arctic air into the region.  A strong area of low pressure developed 
over New England on the 20th and moved very slowly north into 
southern Quebec on the 21st.  Abundant moisture and lift associated 
with the strong low pressure system produced widespread light to 
moderate snow across much of the region from the Genesee Valley into 
Central and Northern New York.

The close proximity of the strong low and the associated deep 
moisture and lift made this a hybrid lake effect snow event.  Lake 
enhanced snow covered a much larger area than in our typical lake 
effect snow events that feature very narrow bands of heavy snow.  
The most persistent lake enhanced snow was found east and southeast 
of Lake Ontario, with storm totals of over one foot in a large area 
from Rochester eastward to the Tug Hill region and Watertown.  
Upstream connections to lake effect snow off Georgian Bay also 
enhanced snowfall across parts of Central NY.  Very persistent 
upslope flow into the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau played 
a critical role in producing the highest totals from this event, 
with a few locations seeing 3 to 4+ feet of snow over a 3 day 
period.  This event also produced unusually heavy amounts of lake 
effect snow outside of our area across the Finger Lakes and Southern 
Tier.  The Binghamton airport and several other locations in the 
Finger Lakes and Syracuse area received over 2 feet of snow over the 
3 day period.

Off Lake Erie, the northwest wind direction through the bulk of the 
event greatly limited the fetch across the short axis of the lake, 
and produced much lower snowfall totals.  Upslope flow into the 
higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and portions of Southern Erie 
and Wyoming counties helped to enhance snowfall amounts to some 
extent, and a few brief upstream connections to Lake Huron also 
developed.  Total amounts over the 3 day period were generally in 
the 8-12 inch range across the higher terrain east and southeast of 
Lake Erie.  

[CNY-WXFREAK]

This should be similar but with less intensity I think so we'll see.  That too was a  hybrid Synoptic-LEnhanced event that was awesome to begin the season with.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Here's a good one Matt with mainly NWerly winds that blanketed the area with a ton of the white stuff!

 

LAKE EFFECT STORM
November 19 - 21, 2016

Maximum Snowfall:  Lk. Erie 12" (Warsaw); Lk. Ontario 54.5" 
(Redfield)
Duration:  36 hours +/-
Flake Scale:  3 flakes ***

The 2016-2017 lake effect season got off to an impressive and 
unusual start with a hybrid event featuring lake effect and lake 
enhanced snow embedded within a large scale (synoptic) system.  
Accumulating snow covered an unusually large area, with only the 
immediate Buffalo and Niagara Falls areas escaping with only a light 
dusting.  Northwest winds were strong through most of the event, 
producing significant blowing and drifting snow and very difficult 
travel.

A strong cold front crossed the Lower Great Lakes from west to east 
during the day of the 19th.  The airmass was only marginally cold by 
late in the day on the 19th, with lake effect rain mixed with wet 
snow developing off Lake Erie near Buffalo, changing to all snow 
across the higher terrain south of the city during the evening.  The 
heavier snow did not develop until a secondary cold front crossed 
the area on the morning of the 20th, bringing a strong push of 
arctic air into the region.  A strong area of low pressure developed 
over New England on the 20th and moved very slowly north into 
southern Quebec on the 21st.  Abundant moisture and lift associated 
with the strong low pressure system produced widespread light to 
moderate snow across much of the region from the Genesee Valley into 
Central and Northern New York.

The close proximity of the strong low and the associated deep 
moisture and lift made this a hybrid lake effect snow event.  Lake 
enhanced snow covered a much larger area than in our typical lake 
effect snow events that feature very narrow bands of heavy snow.  
The most persistent lake enhanced snow was found east and southeast 
of Lake Ontario, with storm totals of over one foot in a large area 
from Rochester eastward to the Tug Hill region and Watertown.  
Upstream connections to lake effect snow off Georgian Bay also 
enhanced snowfall across parts of Central NY.  Very persistent 
upslope flow into the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau played 
a critical role in producing the highest totals from this event, 
with a few locations seeing 3 to 4+ feet of snow over a 3 day 
period.  This event also produced unusually heavy amounts of lake 
effect snow outside of our area across the Finger Lakes and Southern 
Tier.  The Binghamton airport and several other locations in the 
Finger Lakes and Syracuse area received over 2 feet of snow over the 
3 day period.

Off Lake Erie, the northwest wind direction through the bulk of the 
event greatly limited the fetch across the short axis of the lake, 
and produced much lower snowfall totals.  Upslope flow into the 
higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and portions of Southern Erie 
and Wyoming counties helped to enhance snowfall amounts to some 
extent, and a few brief upstream connections to Lake Huron also 
developed.  Total amounts over the 3 day period were generally in 
the 8-12 inch range across the higher terrain east and southeast of 
Lake Erie.  

That’s primarily a west flow. Anyone have radar to prove otherwise? 

[wolfie09]

Here is another one..

An active pattern for December continued, with this fourth event of 
the season coming quickly on the heels on the third, which ended 
just the previous day. This event evolved as complex hybrid event, 
in which snow accumulations off of Lake Erie were driven more by 
pure lake effect, while the snow accumulations off of Lake Ontario 
more a combination of synoptic, upslope and lake effect snow.
A mid-level wave moved across the region late Monday night into 
Tuesday morning producing a widespread light snowfall. During the 
day Tuesday, the mid-level wave deepened into a closed off low while 
a surface low deepened across northern New England and southeast 
Quebec. The deepening system to our east allowed for ample wrap 
around moisture to move back into our region Tuesday night along and 
behind a secondary cold front. 
The synoptic snow became lake enhanced by Tuesday afternoon as 850mb 
temperatures plummeted to around -16C by Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning on the backside of the departing low pressure 
system. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the event 
transitioned into mainly into lingering lake effect east and 
southeast of both lakes

[BuffaloWeather]

Typical nw event map 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That’s primarily a west flow. Anyone have radar to prove otherwise? 

It clearly states it was primarilly a NWerly flow event! 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Here is another one..

An active pattern for December continued, with this fourth event of 
the season coming quickly on the heels on the third, which ended 
just the previous day. This event evolved as complex hybrid event, 
in which snow accumulations off of Lake Erie were driven more by 
pure lake effect, while the snow accumulations off of Lake Ontario 
more a combination of synoptic, upslope and lake effect snow.
A mid-level wave moved across the region late Monday night into 
Tuesday morning producing a widespread light snowfall. During the 
day Tuesday, the mid-level wave deepened into a closed off low while 
a surface low deepened across northern New England and southeast 
Quebec. The deepening system to our east allowed for ample wrap 
around moisture to move back into our region Tuesday night along and 
behind a secondary cold front. 
The synoptic snow became lake enhanced by Tuesday afternoon as 850mb 
temperatures plummeted to around -16C by Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning on the backside of the departing low pressure 
system. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the event 
transitioned into mainly into lingering lake effect east and 
southeast of both lakes

I remember this one as well, lol, cause their aren't many NWerly events that are too memorable!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

When you live in an area such as the Tug Hill and most of the events you witness are big events, its kind of hard to get excited over 2 days of 10-20" of snow, lol, but ppl all across the NE would love to experience what were about to experience even though they say say its fake, lol, they'd love to be in it and thats a fact!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Heres the loop of the November 16-17 event in its entirety from beginning to end but I cant post for some reason

 

it did post, my bad!

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

2’ is chase worthy 

Yes it is.  Trying to decide if I should head down to the hills tomorrow or Thursday.  I like to chase during the heaviest snow, as opposed to at the tail end of events to see depth...so thinking late tomorrow afternoon might be best time.  

[wolfie09]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Typical nw event map 

Guess u didn't read the description lol

Started out west and then veered wnw..

That was also a true LES event, this is a hybrid/lake enhancement event..Much different circumstances..

[rochesterdave]

25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That’s primarily a west flow. Anyone have radar to prove otherwise? 

Rochester doesn’t get snow on west flow. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

16 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

It clearly states it was primarilly a NWerly flow event! 

Definitely a primarily NW flow event with that snow distribution.  Don't underestimate the power of enhancement on the Tug in a multi-band NW flow set-up.  The southern half of the Tug in particular has plenty of wide open Lake Ontario water upstream to produce nicely in these situations.  

[CNY-WXFREAK]

This was the biggest event I was ever in.

LAKE  EFFECT  STORM  
February 3-12, 2007

Maximum Snowfall: Lk.Ontario 141" (Redfield), Lk. Erie 42" (E. 
Aurora)
Duration: 10 days
Prime Feature: epic massive event, record for duration and amount.

This event almost defied description as it started dramatically on 
the weekend of 3-4th in association with a surge of arctic 
air...then kept on all week off Lake Ontario as ripples in the low 
level circulation shifted winds and kept bands of snow moving up and 
down off Lake Ontario. Lake Erie was in the process of freezing up 
all week, so although conditions were favorable here too...only an 
inch or two fell each day after the initial burst on the opening 
weekend.

The activity began on Saturday morning 3rd on a southwest flow as 
winds backed ahead of an arctic front. Several inches fell across 
metro Buffalo as well as Watertown. The front whipped through later 
in the day with another burst of snow.  Then intense bands set up 
overnight and lingered all day Sunday across Buffalo's south Towns 
as well as southern Jefferson and Oswego counties. Over two feet 
fell over Orchard Park and East Aurora. Watertown caught over a 
foot. Then, the Lake Erie activity pretty much shut down for the 
rest of the week, although we did get some minor bands swinging 
north and south...dropping 1 to 3 inches each day. But...Lake 
Ontario was another story.

Lake snows continued on Monday and strengthened later in the day and 
really nailed central Oswego County all Monday night into Tuesday 
morning as another trough approached...many areas picked up 3 feet. 
The bands  then settled south and turned multiple into Wednesday, 
then refocused over Oswego again Thursday morning...dropped south 
Friday, came back north Saturday (10th) and all the way to Watertown 
again before settling south one last time early Monday 12th as 
arctic front dropped south.

The bands never completely broke up or disappeared, so we considered 
this a single event.

Here are some representative reports (all totals)....

Off Lk. Ontario...    
Redfield.............   141 inches
Parish..............     121 inches
N. Osceola.........    106 inches
Mexico..............    106 inches
Oswego.............    84 inches
Watertown..........   36 inches
Syracuse.............  17 inches

Off Lk. Erie...  (nearly all fell Feb 3-5).
East Aurora............42 inches
Orchard Park......... 36 inches
Boston.............      26 inches
Warsaw...........        24 inches
Dunkirk............      18 inches
West Seneca........     12 inches

The event was our longest ever and had highest totals. It impacted 
Buffalo's South Towns at first, and affected a decent sized 
population in Oswego County. It also garnered much national press. 
It therefore earns five ***** stars.

 

[wolfie09]

Pretty much no snow from the shortwave itself..

Have to depend on all lake enhancement..

[wolfie09]

To bad it won't make it up here with that HP coming down..

[CNY-WXFREAK]

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Pretty much no snow from the shortwave itself..

Have to depend on all lake enhancement..

Got to be honest, I wasn't really expecting any, and If we happen to get a couple inches from the SW itself, before it blows up over New England, then its added gravy to an already savory dish, lol!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

I think that Saturday into Sunday event still has plenty of time to change but you can easily see how the GFS caved already to the Euro and Canadian with a much less impressive system then the wrapped one it had advertised for a couple days.

[tim123]

Looks like roc in line for 6 to 10 that's my call. 

[wolfie09]

High rez canadian is quite wet, granted not all snow..

Max of 2.5" liquid in the boylston area and still snowing..

[CNY-WXFREAK]

moist!