Upstate/Eastern New York

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Really hope we can get into a clipper pattern that is depicted at end of GFS, its typically Upstates best pattern for consistent snowfall every few days with lake enhancement in front and LES behind.

 

Love that look, just wish it wasn’t over 2 weeks out!  Hopefully the modeling keeps trending in that direction so we can have something legit on the table to really start tracking after mid month. 

[wolfie09]

If i ever needed the euro to be correct it's now lol

The majority of this is frozen for northern oswego county, a little rain mixed in during the "lull"

 

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Friday night and sat night..

Temps struggle to get out of the single digits on sat..

[wolfie09]

And sunday night lol

probably a little overboard me think..

[rochesterdave]

34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Solid 2” for KROC and 1” for BUF. But a foot just SE of SYR? Must be confusing sleet. 

[TugHillMatt]

10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Solid 2” for KROC and 1” for BUF. But a foot just SE of SYR? Must be confusing sleet. 

Higher elevations SE of Syracuse. Madison county tends to get some upsloping.

[wolfie09]

Another strong mid level shortwave and associated surface low will
reach the eastern Great Lakes very late Tuesday afternoon and
evening. While model guidance is in good agreement with the large
scale features, there are some differences in the finer details as
to where the band of most persistent precipitation will develop with
this system. The initial area of precipitation will be in the form
of rain late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Cold advection will
increase Tuesday night, allowing the rain to change to snow later
Tuesday night. Precipitation will be mainly snow by Wednesday
morning, with the possible exception of the immediate lakeshores.
Some minor accumulations are expected by daybreak Wednesday across
higher terrain.

Wednesday and Wednesday night a surface low will rapidly deepen over
the Gulf of Maine before moving into the Canadian Maritimes. A deep
mid level trough will carve out across the Great Lakes and New
England, with several mid level shortwaves moving through the
longwave trough. An extended period of moist northwest flow will
setup across the eastern Great Lakes, with lake induced equilibrium
levels rising to over 8K feet with time. This will all support
widespread snow showers and embedded areas of steadier light snow
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The combination of lake enhancement
and northwest upslope flow will bring accumulating snows to the
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier, Tug Hill, and western
foothills of the Adirondacks. This may require winter headlines as
the details become more apparent and confidence increases on the
timing and placement of heavier snow amounts. Even across the lower
elevations of the lake plains expect some modest accumulations
during this time period. It will also be quite windy Wednesday and
Wednesday night with some blowing and drifting snow in areas which
receive accumulation.

[wolfie09]

Ouch

18z nam takes away all snow with the warm front and replaces it with ice..

Over 1/2" on the tug..

[wolfie09]

[TugHillMatt]

All week, this was consistently shown to drop 6 to 10 inches of snow here on the Tug...run after run showed it. Now the day before it becomes a few inches with ice. These low pressure systems have blown chunks.

[wolfie09]

That's from the warm front..

We have another more important system on Tuesday night-wed..

Models haven't handled this set up to well but we are getting there..

 

[wolfie09]

Giving some credence to the euro..

[rochesterdave]

18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Giving some credence to the euro..

I think the south shore suffers due to the strength of the winds. Upslope regions could do better. IE: finger lakes hillsides and Madison CTY as suggested before. 

[rochesterdave]

Please

[rochesterdave]

Absolute bomb! New GFS also gives pretty good totals for our LES hybrid event

[Ottawa Blizzard]

29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Please

If only that could track just a little further northwest so that Toronto could cash in as well....

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

[BuffaloWeather]

A nice high elevation tug thump on NAM. 

[TugHillMatt]

Sure hope so. Gives me over a foot.

Hard to tell..but think I am at about 15 or 16 inches on that NAM run.

[wolfie09]

Yea Nam is very euroish, gives me pretty much exactly 1 foot and still snowing..Cautiously optimistic..

[rochesterdave]

Add the old GFS to the phase list

 

[Syrmax]

You all up on or near the Tug enjoy the snow this week.  Looking like nuisance amounts south of there.  I missed out on a round of golf with friends this past Friday, too busy at work. Hopefully we can stay on the mild side and get in a round or two this month or in Feb. Looks very possible this winter.

[wolfie09]

[Thinksnow18]

The discussion that follows explains how all long range models are coming into better agreement at most of the conus east of the Rockies having BN temps during weeks 3 and 4 and beyond. Multiple chances for snow after tomorrow including what looks to be a decent chance next weekend.

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

A robust shortwave trough will drop south across the Upper Great
Lakes by Tuesday afternoon. The left exit region of a jet streak
will promote cyclogenesis and low pressure will move north of Lake
Erie and across Lake Ontario by Tuesday evening. An associated cold
front will move east across WNY during this time and rain and snow
showers will spread across WNY. Temperatures and the wet-bulb effect
will lower temperatures quickly Tuesday evening, first across the
higher terrain and then across the Lake Plains overnight. East of
Lake Ontario...Upward forcing will increase in vicinity of the low
as it approaches overnight. A deformation zone will likely stretch
from the northern shore of Lake Ontario into the Adirondacks by
Wednesday morning. Rain is expected at lower elevations in the
evening before changing to all snow by morning. Temperatures will be
near or below freezing at higher elevations through the night and
snow is expected Tuesday night. Due to the marginal temperatures,
minor accumulations are expected and will be confined to the higher
terrain with 1-2 inches expected by Wednesday morning.

Low pressure will move into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning.
Multiple shortwave troughs will rotate around a larger trough that
is located across the Northeast. Northwest flow will setup across
the eastern Great Lakes and cold air advection will transport cold,
Canadian air into the region. Snow showers are expected into
Wednesday evening as lake induced equilibrium levels increase and
the dendritic snow growth zone lowers. Temperatures will hold steady
during the day with temperatures in the mid 30`s along the lakeshore
and mid to upper 20`s on the higher terrain. It won`t be until
Wednesday afternoon when 850mb temperatures reach the minus teens C
and lake effect enhancement gets going. Moist, northwest flow
continues Wednesday night and lake induced instability really ramps
up. Moderate to heavy snow is possible at times Wednesday night with
the greatest accumulation across the higher terrain. Winter
headlines may be needed Wed-Wed night.

 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Hope everyone has their snowblowers tuned up, their snowmobiles gassed up cause Winter may finally be making a return after a month sabbatical. Cold and Snowy most of November to first week of Dec then Normal to above for 4-5 weeks and now we finally see a real change in guidance but is it sustainable, I think so but who really knows but from what Ive seen, we're looking at 4-6 weeks of true mid Winter conditions so we'll see, but it is late by a couple weeks, no doubt!