Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

Most weak El Nino years feature above average temps in December and we've seen that so far this month. While it hasn't been too warm, we are +1.6 for the month and likely to add to it this coming weekend. The long range outlook which featured colder then normal weather has been pushed back about 2-3 weeks so far. The transition time frame for a return to colder then normal weather looks like the middle of January. However, the long range forecasting models have been absolutely terrible, along with the indices changing on the daily. Buffalo is below average in terms of snowfall for the year so far.  

The next 2 weeks will likely feature a "gradient" type pattern with 2-3 cutters. Cold air will be hard to find, but climatology states we are close to entering the coldest time of year in a few weeks. A strong PNA along with a the EPO going negative will feature cold air across the Northeast. However the entry point of the cold air will likely be pretty far east which if LES comes will feature NW winds as the predominant wind direction. We need help from that WPO to get the entry point of cold air farther west. The SE ridge looks to be the main focal point the next 2 weeks (La ninaish). 

 

The farther we get into January the colder we should get.

The MJO looks to be entering a more favorable phase as well, but will take until the 2nd week of January to get there. 

 

The lag time of SSW is usually 2-3 weeks, another thing going in our favor. However the placement of the SSW will have a direct result on placement of coldest air. Many times SSW can result in the coldest air going over Europe or even Siberia. 

Lake Erie and Ontario are both above average for this time of year.

All in all we should gradually see a transition to a more wintry type pattern as we enter the first week of January. I'd favor NW favored snowbelts and Eastern New York for Synoptic. Not the best pattern for Western NY but we may get some luck with that gradient pattern. Mid January to Feb should feature some great winter weather. Perfect timing as I will be moving into my house.

Merry Christmas all and to all a good new year! 

[wolfie09]

Temperature down to 11°, whatever falls should have a nice fluff factor..

[BuffaloWeather]

Forgot to include long range CIPS analogs. I remember posting these a few weeks ago, they all showed colder then average and those were wrong. But I do think the colder air is just delayed, not canceled. Too many things going in its favor. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Weeklies discussion, I would be a little worried about the cold that keeps getting pushed back in the long range. From Carvers:

"I was not a huge fan of the Weeklies run.  It cut snow totals by about half w a fairly decent "warm-up"(likely rainy and cloudy) in the middle.  Looks like a decent cold shot from Jan 4-11 and another from say January 23 - the end of the run.  The worst of the cold was pushed back.  Likely culprits?  Maybe the MJO is over-riding the Nino signal.  Also the SOI is in La Nina territory and decently so.  That is rare and is not a good thing.  While it wasn't a Grinch run and certainly wasn't terrible, it did have a lump of coal or two.  I certainly don't like to see AN temps during our best snow climatology time.  That said, if we get cold during the last week of Jan into February w this constant precip...have to think that is good.  My rule about Nino winters is that they just require a ton of patience...I am not fan of backloaded winters.  At this point, I don't see anything that would change my original winter set of ideas.  Below is the teleconnection chart.  There are certainly some inconsistencies there"

[CNY-LES FREAK]

MJO's usually disappear, or should I say die out, during ninos, but this ones hanging on a bit longer it seems but I doubt it lasts much longer but who really knows.

Tbh, I'm not really looking forward to a prolonged period of single digit & teens for highs and lows below 0, F that, give me snow at 29F and I'm a happy camper as the older I get, the colder I get, or so it seems, lol!

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[vortmax]

Very nice writeup BW! 

[BuffaloWeather]

The difference between the Euro and GFS are huge in the long range. Euro is warm, GFS is cold. NWS mentions it. 

Forecast uncertainty quickly increases Monday night and Tuesday. The
latest 00Z GFS brings a cold front across the area early Tuesday,
with a chance of snow showers followed by lake effect potential by
evening as cold air pours into the Great Lakes. The ECMWF on the
other hand brings a much stronger southern stream wave through the
Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday, which
would bring a surge of warmer air and rain into our region, followed
by much colder air later Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GEM
represents the middle ground, with a weaker southern stream wave
moving through the Mid Atlantic region. Given the uncertainty, went
with a chance of rain/snow showers for this period.

[wolfie09]

It has been snowing all night for like half an inch lol

[rochesterdave]

The long boring stretch continues. Our early jump in snowfall has been relegated to near normal, or below, due to a weak December. 

Many of us got a Christmas miracle and now we are back to the doldrums. None of models have anything of interest for 10 days but this pattern is definitely game for surprises. Just need the two streams to link up- not early (cutter) and not late (ots). Canadian comes closest. 

Dull stuff. 

[BuffaloWeather]

13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The long boring stretch continues. Our early jump in snowfall has been relegated to near normal, or below, due to a weak December. 

Many of us got a Christmas miracle and now we are back to the doldrums. None of models have anything of interest for 10 days but this pattern is definitely game for surprises. Just need the two streams to link up- not early (cutter) and not late (ots). Canadian comes closest. 

Dull stuff. 

The GFS looks fantastic, the Euro not so much. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

[TugHillMatt]

Can the GFS and Euro EVER look fantastic at the SAME time?!? Lol

[wolfie09]

They don't call the euro "DR NO" for nothing haha 

It very rarely ever looks great probably why it's most realistic lol

[wolfie09]

12z gfs looks Blahh

All northern stream dominate with most stuff missing to the north..

We are split between both streams..

[wolfie09]

Our best shot at snow over the next 10days as it stands now, gfs has been showing this for a couple days now..

Even last night's euro took the new years eve snow away..

[rochesterdave]

10 day gfs1/2” for KROC. 

[wolfie09]

UKMET has it but could be rain, hard to decipher..

[wolfie09]

Need a north trend..

Still in the game, for now..

Looks like a couple energies running around, hence the timing differences..Models keying on differnt SW..

[wolfie09]

I guess not all websites are available..

 

The website you are trying to access is not available at this time due to a lapse in appropriation.

NOAA.gov and specific NOAA websites necessary to protect lives and property are operational and will be maintained during this partial closure of the U.S. Government.

See weather.gov for forecasts and critical weather information.

[BuffaloWeather]

23 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

10 day gfs1/2” for KROC. 

Yeah constant model changes going on right now. Gradient is the way to go next 10 days or so. 

[wolfie09]

Laughable, the only place not getting snow right now lol

Sounds about right..

 

A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 35. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. 

 

[wolfie09]

Winds out of the west/wsw, so lets put accumulating snows in the southern part of the county..

[wolfie09]

Pretty much all you need to see from the euro..

Hardly any snow on the ground 1st week of jan

[wolfie09]

Euro gives us 2 rain storms and then a miss to the south with a snowstorm..

[TugHillMatt]

Is that 2 rain storms in addition to Friday's storm...or including?

This pattern has been ugly. This will be thaw number 5 or 6 for the Tug. Watching snow melt and vanish is depressing.

[wolfie09]

That is counting the upcoming rain event..

Then we see more rain for the ball drop, litterly while the ball is dropping lol

May be a little lake effect on the backside..

Then we miss asnowstorm to the south on the 3rd/4th..

[wolfie09]

Doesn't surprise me lol

First year i moved to futon we barely had 100 inches..

I'm a jinx haha

[wolfie09]

Heaviest snow of the event right now, 1.25 down..

[wolfie09]

Snow keeps back filling off the lake..

[BuffaloWeather]

Yeah we're going to need some PAC help, what a horrid pattern. I read something somewhere that the MJO hit a record high today? I think that is what is dominating the pattern right now. Will have to see that the GEFS say later. 

[DeltaT13]

Man I've been trying to stay positive, but with every model run, the reality of a crappy winter seems more real.  Looks like we can almost write off the first 2-3 weeks of January.  Just no blocking, pac air dominating NA, and a split flow that seems to move any system of interest either well North or well South..   We havent even had a damn high wind event yet this fall/winter.  Losing faith.....