tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Plume average for KROC at 23”. Wow That's nice. Been a couple years since a 2 footer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Me and Matt almost doubled our output, so we keep.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Do those plumes use ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 KBUF AFD about the storm - KROC could be jackpot area - Sat 2-4, Sat ngt - 8-16, Sun 3-6+ Light snow will spread into Western NY Saturday morning as warm air advection and isentropic lift move into the region. Light easterly winds and temperatures in the mid to upper teens to low 20`s will result in a light snowfall that accumulates slowly throughout the morning. Light snow will then spread into Saturday afternoon while snow intensifies slowly across Western NY. Saturday will be uneventful with minor accumulations of 2-4 inches across WNY to 1-3 inches east of Lake Ontario. Although there continues to be spread in the speed of phasing and the track, the spread is getting smaller. A beautiful coupled upper- level jet will promote rapid deepening as low pressure moves into the northern Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night. At this time, mid- level frontogenesis will have moved into western and north-central NY, moving east of the region Sunday. This will promote deep lift in the dendritic growth zone for much of the region. Northeast winds will also increase overnight and will produce lake enhancement along the southern shore of Lake Ontario during this time. The open waters of Lake Ontario are still in the upper 30`s to low 40`s. This is more than enough to produce increased instability and additional snow totals. Winds will be increasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts near 40 mph along the southern shore of Lake Ontario with gusts near 35 mph across the Niagara Frontier and Lake Erie shoreline. Winds will be lower across interior portions of NYS. Snow rates will likely be 1 in/hr with the potential for higher rates where enhancement is likely. Snowfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches are possible overnight. Winds will start to back to the northeast Sunday morning and cold air advection will spread across the eastern Great Lakes through the day. The heavy widespread synoptic snow will move east of western NY Sunday morning and will move east of the North Country by Sunday afternoon. Snow will transition to lake effect during this time with gusty winds and areas of blowing and drifting snow. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible Sunday with the higher amounts along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain. The Tug Hill region will also see enhancement from upslope conditions. Temperatures will take a tumble Sunday and Sunday night with highs in the single digits to low teens and near zero to the minus teens across the North Country Sunday night. Wind chills will go below zero early Sunday morning and fall through the day on Sunday. Wind chills will likely approach minus 20 across WNY and minus 40 across the North Country by Monday morning. As mentioned above, confidence has increased that a major winter storm will impact western and north-central NY this weekend, however there remains uncertainity as to where the heaviest snow axis will be and how wide it will be. With this, will continue to message the Winter Storm Watch Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Possible (total) snow accumulations during this time range from 12- 18 inches with 18-24 inches along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and across the southern Tug Hill region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam needs a nudge to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Nam needs a nudge to the NW I'm not worried about the NAM. At this point everything looks to be locking in...the numbers discussed in the AFD look great and I'm getting psyched for hefty accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I'm not worried about the NAM. At this point everything looks to be locking in...the numbers discussed in the AFD look great and I'm getting psyched for hefty accums. If we see a foot from this I think it’d be a huge win. Anything more is gravy. Anything less than 8” at this point is a bust in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Winter Storm watches up for portions of the GTA. Looking around 6-10" here which I will gladly take because this winter has been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, mississaugasnow said: Winter Storm watches up for portions of the GTA. Looking around 6-10" here which I will gladly take because this winter has been awful. Nice!!! That's really great news and further solidifies a more northern shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Also day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Nice!!! That's really great news and further solidifies a more northern shift Yep, though the northern suburbs probably wouldn't mind another bump north. As of right now the northern suburbs are looking at 2-4", Downtown Toronto and west to Hamilton 4-6" and Hamilton-Niagara 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Winter Storm watches up for portions of the GTA. Looking around 6-10" here which I will gladly take because this winter has been awful. What is Toronto’s yearly average snowfall? Being on the wrong end of Lake Ontario and not in a favorable synoptic location it’s probably fairly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CNY_WX said: What is Toronto’s yearly average snowfall? Being on the wrong end of Lake Ontario and not in a favorable synoptic location it’s probably fairly low. About 51" We have a climate similar to Detroit/Chicago. Most of our big storms are terrible for about 90% of this sub because they cant transfer to coast and generally have to pass right over Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Channel 9’s latest accumulation forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 whats up with the 12" map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Same as the NWS! 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Channel 9’s latest accumulation forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Why isn't channel 9 showing Lake Enhancement along the South Shore? Probably broad brushing for now until tomorrow perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Thats only through Sunday evening, wow, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: About 51" We have a climate similar to Detroit/Chicago. Most of our big storms are terrible for about 90% of this sub because they cant transfer to coast and generally have to pass right over Rochester. Do those even happen anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Why isn't channel 9 showing Lake Enhancement along the South Shore? Probably broad brushing for now until tomorrow perhaps. That's Rochester territory. Might as well be Rochester, Minnesota to their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Thats a lot of Blue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Thats a tough one for NYC folk, damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Haven't had a forecast like this for a while! Tonight Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 20. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Snow, mainly before noon, then a chance of snow showers after noon. High near 34. South wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Night A chance of snow showers before 10pm, then scattered flurries between 10pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 17. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 8. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Areas of blowing snow. High near 12. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Night Snow. Areas of blowing snow before 4am. Low around -5. Chance of precipitation is 90%. M.L.King Day Snow. High near 6. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Monday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around -4. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Thats a tough one for NYC folk, damn! NWS OKX Bullish for change to rain and temps rising into 40s in and around NYC, NJ and southern CT counties. Apparently they haven't tossed the GFS and FV3 as some others have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Now why would they go and throw the one model out thats been the most steadfast and hasn't budged from its track since Tuesday, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS had an incremental drop in moisture for most of us. Similar to NAM. We are very much on the NW fringe of this storm. I’m a bit surprised at the bullish NWS forecast. They are definitely siding with a more phased system. 18z has not given a boost to that thinking (yet). Even if this thing jogged well SE, almost all of us would still see warning amounts. So there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NYC must of been just added as was coastal CT and I cant for the life of me figure out why? Maybe the Mets in their office are throwing everything else out except the Euro, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Thats weird cause if you click on the pic you can see the blue over the area but not if you don't click? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: NYC must of been just added as was coastal CT and I cant for the life of me figure out why? Maybe the Mets in their office are throwing everything else out except the Euro, lol? They must have been reading the other subs here, and learned that ICON > GFS, Ukie has led the model field with this system, 1C temp variations are a trend and not model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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