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  On 1/14/2019 at 10:25 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Welcome man! I doubt a flight gets canceled out of Buffalo for a storm that isn’t lake effect. You should be fine. What part of buffalo are you from? Definitely post more! 

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Thanks, I’m located in southeast Clarence, Main and ransom area. I work out in west falls so I get to see and enjoy the snow around here fairly often. I agree with thinksnow that the flight could have issues only because of other airports. I’ve been in and out of buffalo in crazy conditions. Snow landings are some of the softest lol. 

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  On 1/15/2019 at 12:15 AM, Luke_Mages said:

Thanks, I’m located in southeast Clarence, Main and ransom area. I work out in west falls so I get to see and enjoy the snow around here fairly often. I agree with thinksnow that the flight could have issues only because of other airports. I’ve been in and out of buffalo in crazy conditions. Snow landings are some of the softest lol. 

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That’s awesome, west falls is one of the snowiest places in western New York. Let us know how the weather is there throughout winter!

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  On 1/15/2019 at 1:04 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

The FV3 basically has air from space coming down into our area. If that happens all time cold temps will be set. That would completely freeze lake erie in 1- 2 days. 

fv3p_z500a_nhem_56.png

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Looks like someone’s blue pen exploded on the Great Lakes!  Quite the run of modeling today. 

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"Polar cap ozone reached record high levels recently, which is a pertinent proxy for BDC intensity and a strong precursor signal for anomalous high latitude blocking. Once the anomalous high latitude blocking accelerates in the troposphere, it should remain for a minimum of 30 days, potentially up to 45-50 days [which would take us into the first half of March]."

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Not sure if anyone put up the lates BUF disco. Figured I would during this lull. I like their attitude- going pretty hard and not holding back: 
Latest medium range model guidance continuing to suggest a large
and potent surface low pressure will track south of the region
over the weekend. Models do show considerable amount of moisture
being pulled northward into the system. With most of the model
guidance suggesting we will be well on the cold side of the
system widespread accumulating snow is expected likely starting
late in the day Saturday into a good portion of Sunday.
Additional lake enhanced/effect component will come into play on
the back side of the system with additional accumulating snows
likely. Although forecast details at this range are a bit
uncertain, this storm system will need to be monitored closely,
as there is potential for significant winter storm impacts for
the entire area, including heavy snowfall and strong winds which
could have significant travel implications during this weekend.
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  On 1/15/2019 at 2:06 AM, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Can we hold the lake freeze until after this please?

Perfectly aligned SW flow with 850s in the -30s!
174f9dbbb912f8daa8a6a4f5a081c691.jpg


.

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It will be unfrozen then but will quickly freeze lol we will have a few days of potential. That cold won’t happen though. Fv3 has been terrible. 

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