Bubbler86 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Given the forecast for the rest of the week starting Wednesday, probably the happiest people around these parts operate RoundtopMtn resort. Boy what an awful start of their season so far. Liberty Mountain isn't even open. I thought liberty somehow, even with many days in the 50's, had some slopes open...not the tubing though last time I checked. It has indeed been a terrible season for them so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 51 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I thought liberty somehow, even with many days in the 50's, had some slopes open...not the tubing though last time I checked. It has indeed been a terrible season for them so far. They opened on 12/23 but closed down a week or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: They opened on 12/23 but closed down a week or so ago. Wow. Thanks for the info. Tomorrow is going to hurt but better times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 My guess for the Sunday storm: it won’t snow >1” north of the PA/MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, canderson said: My guess for the Sunday storm: it won’t snow >1” north of the PA/MD border. Well the Mid-Atlantic forum did make a storm thread for this potential event so there's that haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I think a few days before the Blizzard of 2016 Canderson said MDT wouldn’t get more than 6 inches of snow.... Long way to go for this one & the rest of winter. If this one misses, the Euro weeklies again tonight look fantastic for the rest of this month through the middle of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 It sounds very sleety outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Currently a sleet & freezing rain mix now in Marysville. The car tops have a light glaze on them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 0z GFS whacks C-PA, Pit and Mid-Atlantic gangs. Canadian more of an I-80 south event but I consider that progress for that model which was pretty disinterested in any event just a day or so ago and a decided shift into our region from 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Sleet and 31 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: 0z GFS whacks C-PA, Pit and Mid-Atlantic gangs. Canadian more of an I-80 south event but I consider that progress for that model which was pretty disinterested in any event just a day or so ago and a decided shift into our region from 12z today. We have a phase solution. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 36 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: 0z GFS whacks C-PA, Pit and Mid-Atlantic gangs. Canadian more of an I-80 south event but I consider that progress for that model which was pretty disinterested in any event just a day or so ago and a decided shift into our region from 12z today. Yes indeed! Hopefully the good trends will continue tomorrow. The GFS map below is Kuchera ratio, which is a positive snow factor with this cold air in place. The Canadian that I have does not provide Kuchera ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Still 32-33ish here. Nasty glaze of ice remains on untreated stuff, hard to stand on my paved driveway. Probably about 0.1" on the ice accrual. Per mesowest obs the cold air looks to be starting to retreat with above freezing obs for the most part AOO/JST south and near 50 on the other side of the Alleghenies in the Pit region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 0z Euro keeps it's minor event status quo much like the GFS has with it's big snowstorm one. The issue isn't really that the wave isn't there. The Euro does eject out southern energy in a similar manner and we have a breakout of snowfall with a 6-8" bullseye in the midwest (MO) which then runs a few to several inches along the OH River Valley that loses it's luster once over the Apps. It does have a 1-3" type event in the western half of PA with up to an inch or so (used Kuchera numbers). So all the major models do have this thing, but the big difference especially between the GFS and Euro is the northern branch and positioning of the ridging in central Canada. GFS has a sharper and somewhat stronger ridging up into the Hudson Bay, which buckles the northern branch in the fashion that allows enough interaction to touch off the GFS's bigger storm. The Euro's alignment doesn't buckle the northern stream and it stays largely separated, so in that case we just have the southern stream wave ejecting out on a positive tilt with progression and no dig. Adding in the Canadian, it gets there by having a much more robust and consolidated southern branch shortwave but has little NS interaction like the Euro. The differences between the three models at H5 around that 120-144hr timeframe are pretty significant... but I am becoming more confident that we see x amount of snow from this. The eventual evolution as to how much x ends up being is going to need to be sorted out a lot better the next few days. As I mentioned a couple days ago, this overall setup is a way for us to winter with an active Pac and above average 500 ridging. You have the ridging in western/central Canada and the Pac shortwaves undercutting and running thru the SW US. GFS at 126hr EURO at 126hr Canadian at 126hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Mag thanks for your thoughts on this! Everything was ice coated here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Euro looks to get 2" or so inches up to MDT for Sunday. It's still a Virginia special mostly it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, canderson said: Euro looks to get 2" or so inches up to MDT for Sunday. It's still a Virginia special mostly it appears. Horst PM update: (Blizz isn't going to like it :() WED/THU will be windy & seasonably cold, before a brief Arctic blast arrives FRI/SAT...likely both sub-freezing days. A southern storm will threaten SAT PM into SUN...with Lanco on the northern edge Still too early to call...but some accumulation is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 A couple pretty nice rumbles of thunder here in Altoona around 6pm. Did you hear any down your way Mag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Lol, thunder and lightning with the approaching showers here. That and I could've sworn I saw a tornado warning in NW PA on RadarScope earlier this afternoon. Edit @pirates21 Yep haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I thought I saw lightning but thought maybe it was lights in the window. Amazing for January 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Rain, sleet, ice, wind, thunder and lightning, Now its time to add a sizable amount of snow to that cornucopia of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Great trends today especially for the LSV for snow this weekend ! We are very much in the game according to the Euro, EPS, GFS & GEFS at 12z & 18z today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I have seen lightning in January 4 times in my life and evrey time i saw it we got a winter storm a few days after. Last time a saw lightning in January was the Squall that proceeded the 2016 storm . I didn't see any yet tonight but I know its out there I will head out soon hope to see a few flashes . I think todays convection is a good vibe for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 hours ago, Flatheadsickness said: I have seen lightning in January 4 times in my life and evrey time i saw it we got a winter storm a few days after. Last time a saw lightning in January was the Squall that proceeded the 2016 storm . I didn't see any yet tonight but I know its out there I will head out soon hope to see a few flashes . I think todays convection is a good vibe for the weekend Yes, Joe Bastardi has recently brought that up. He says that the old saying is that when there are thunderstorms in winter that often times it snows within 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 It’s game time ! Who’s going to start our thread for this weekend event ? The 0z Euro, EPS & GEFS all agree that CTP will be getting snow this weekend! It looks like a long duration light to moderate snow event at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 My son and I went for a walk looking north and did manage to catch a few far of flashes thought we herd thunder but it turns out the lightning was somewhere between state game lands 210 and state game lands 264 so I doubt I herd the thunder but its winter so maybe. Lightningmaps.org only seams to get about 90% of the strikes so maybe it was closer. I think even the spc was caught off gard at how unstable the environment got today. It send shivers down the back of my paints and turns my palms all rosie. Im getting hot for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s game time ! Who’s going to start our thread for this weekend event ? The 0z Euro, EPS & GEFS all agree that CTP will be getting snow this weekend! It looks like a long duration light to moderate snow event at this time. Yep...that's the type of snow that's been largely missing for quite a few years down this way. A good 'ole 2"-4", 3"-6" snowfall. If it materializes, we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 A new day dawns to the first accumulation of snow on the ground in over a month (coating)... 12 hours after having thunderstorms roll through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: A new day dawns to the first accumulation of snow on the ground in over a month (coating)... 12 hours after having thunderstorms roll through. Good for you! I was a little surprised when I woke up and it was still 41 degrees down this way. Thought it would be colder, but I'm guessing with a pretty good NW breeze today we'll see nearly steady temps before falling this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Good for you! I was a little surprised when I woke up and it was still 41 degrees down this way. Thought it would be colder, but I'm guessing with a pretty good NW breeze today we'll see nearly steady temps before falling this evening. i had 42. It will probably be 8-10 degrees colder on the way home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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