Central PA - Winter 2018-19

[2001kx]

PAZ017>019-024>028-049>053-191200-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-
Columbia-
Including the cities of DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg,
State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union,
Lewistown, Mifflintown, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville,
Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick
956 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO
1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with some mixed precipitation expected. Total
snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches, with the highest amounts
near interstate 80 and the lowest amounts around Johnstown. Ice
accumulations will generally be less than a tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Snow will develop during Saturday afternoon and become
heavy at times toward evening. Expect the snow to change to
mixed precipitation Saturday night across roughly the southern
half of the state. The snow or mixed precipitation should taper
off around sunrise Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
impossible.

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

Wasn’t there a storm here in the late 90s or something that had Mets predict8ng 2’ snow and it ended up a rainstorm with no frozen precip? I’ve heard that urban legend.

There was a storm in 2000 that was forecast to dump 2' and we ended up partly cloudy. Horst was calling for 6"-12" and he was the lowest bust. 

I can't recall a bust due to getting rain and not snow. Usually our bad busts were total whiffs. 

[MAG5035]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

There was a storm in 2000 that was forecast to dump 2' and we ended up partly cloudy. Horst was calling for 6"-12" and he was the lowest bust. 

I can't recall a bust due to getting rain and not snow. Usually our bad busts were total whiffs. 

That sounds like that would be a big cities thing, where the rain/snow line set up on the wrong side of I-95. 

[KPITSnow]

Just now, MAG5035 said:

That sounds like that would be a big cities thing, where the rain/snow line set up on the wrong side of I-95. 

Or swpa....

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, MAG5035 said:

That sounds like that would be a big cities thing, where the rain/snow line set up on the wrong side of I-95. 

Reading your response, I remember a storm that came on a Saturday morning while I was still in high school. At the time I lived just outside of Millersville, and was at the high school that morning for basketball. I remember going into the gym with a forecast of 4"-8" and coming out 2 hours later to a driving rainstorm. I was crushed...until my dad came home. He worked just across the river in York county near Hallam. As the crow flies it might have been 7 or 8 miles from our house. He pulls in the driveway shortly after I get home and gives me a weird look. Turns out there was 5" of snow at his shop and when left it was SN+. He said the Susquehanna was literally the dividing line between rain and snow. 

That happened in the winter of '81 or '82 and I don't ever recall anything like that happening before or since. 

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

That sounds like that would be a big cities thing, where the rain/snow line set up on the wrong side of I-95. 

Probably a good chance who told us this grew up around Philly actually so that makes total sense.

Fun history lesson, thanks guys. 

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the latest from CTP as of 1034pm

They are Not backing down! 

 

I'd love for that to verify for you guys who live south of I-80, but places like UNV and definitely AOO are living on the edge with the warm layer aloft for a time. Models are showing a real pounding for a good few hours on the front end which can hopefully keep the heavy sleet to maybe Rt 22 and south, but if the warmer models are right, it would cut back quite a bit up to I-80 and even up to IPT. I could see the 14-15" being predicted for State College if the heavy snow comes in fast like a wall and the warmth can be held at bay, but I can also see it being 7-9" of quicksand from a surging warm layer. I'm really not seeing how Harrisburg gets 8". Hopefully I'm wrong and it's an overproducer, but I've gotten burned a few times on these storms when I lived in State College in the mid-late 2000s. 

[MAG5035]

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Or swpa....

Lol, that's a tough place for snow, especially under I-70. At least Pittsburgh metro rides the line a lot more often with these type of events.. and looks to do so again tomorrow. The low ultimately should stay under PA, so I think Pittsburgh should be good for at least 3-6". With how the low is tracking you guys may see some accumulations when the cold air changes things back over on the back side. 

[Santa Clause]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'd love for that to verify for you guys who live south of I-80, but places like UNV and definitely AOO are living on the edge with the warm layer aloft for a time. Models are showing a real pounding for a good few hours on the front end which can hopefully keep the heavy sleet to maybe Rt 22 and south, but if the warmer models are right, it would cut back quite a bit up to I-80 and even up to IPT. I could see the 14-15" being predicted for State College if the heavy snow comes in fast like a wall and the warmth can be held at bay, but I can also see it being 7-9" of quicksand from a surging warm layer. I'm really not seeing how Harrisburg gets 8". Hopefully I'm wrong and it's an overproducer, but I've gotten burned a few times on these storms when I lived in State College in the mid-late 2000s. 

Why even make that call then, they should know climo better than anyone.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Why even make that call then, they should know climo better than anyone.

It’s a really tough call for the middle third of the state. Wouldn’t want their job right now. The models edging a little warmer tonight so far would worry me somewhat for totals over a foot in that area. We’ll see if they adjust in the next update. 

[MAG5035]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I'd love for that to verify for you guys who live south of I-80, but places like UNV and definitely AOO are living on the edge with the warm layer aloft for a time. Models are showing a real pounding for a good few hours on the front end which can hopefully keep the heavy sleet to maybe Rt 22 and south, but if the warmer models are right, it would cut back quite a bit up to I-80 and even up to IPT. I could see the 14-15" being predicted for State College if the heavy snow comes in fast like a wall and the warmth can be held at bay, but I can also see it being 7-9" of quicksand from a surging warm layer. I'm really not seeing how Harrisburg gets 8". Hopefully I'm wrong and it's an overproducer, but I've gotten burned a few times on these storms when I lived in State College in the mid-late 2000s. 

Yea here in Altoona it could go either way. 6-8" is probably still a good bet and if there's not a lot of mixing then a foot or so is certainly doable. I think UNV gets to 10". I had a post earlier today mentioning if that happened I believe would be the first winter they've had 2 or more 10"+ single events since 95-96. We got whacked by the November storm in this region under similar circumstances. I think the original warning was for like 4-7 and I had about 9 inches before it even mixed (on the way to 10.5") and State College had almost a foot. The damage was done on the front end of that one and it just poured snow for a few hours in the afternoon. This one is similar but stronger, more moisture laden and perhaps a bit further north. November's storm didn't have a closed 850 low and this one does which with the track of that into SW PA is the primary sticking point with this system. On the other hand we're deep into January and in the coldest stretch climo wise, there's a significant arctic air mass to the north that while not being fully tapped will likely anchor some CAD. I just don't think we're raining nearly to Williamsport on the GFS's track. (maybe if the super amped RGEM and HRDPS had its way). I don't think I've ever seen CTP bet the house on totals like this given uncertainty, esp in between the turnpike and I-80.  It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea here in Altoona it could go either way. 6-8" is probably still a good bet and if there's not a lot of mixing then a foot or so is certainly doable. I think UNV gets to 10". I had a post earlier today mentioning if that happened I believe would be the first winter they've had 2 or more 10"+ single events since 95-96. We got whacked by the November storm in this region under similar circumstances. I think the original warning was for like 4-7 and I had about 9 inches before it even mixed (on the way to 10.5") and State College had almost a foot. The damage was done on the front end of that one and it just poured snow for a few hours in the afternoon. This one is similar but stronger, more moisture laden and perhaps a bit further north. November's storm didn't have a closed 850 low and this one does which with the track of that into SW PA is the primary sticking point with this system. On the other hand we're deep into January and in the coldest stretch climo wise, there's a significant arctic air mass to the north that while not being fully tapped will likely anchor some CAD. I just don't think we're raining nearly to Williamsport on the GFS's track. (maybe if the super amped RGEM and HRDPS had its way). I don't think I've ever seen CTP bet the house on totals like this given uncertainty, esp in between the turnpike and I-80.  It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow. 

At least maybe I can watch a whiteout on the PSU webcams as I get ready for my slushy inch to rain in my backyard.

Hopefully it does work out there. The Nov event was definitely a big overperformer. The biggest event I saw in State College was probably 2/14/07 which was supposed to be 18-20" but ended up 11" due to the same warm air aloft and too far west 850 low. I lived there during a really boring period, hopefully it's finally turning back to snowier in central PA. 

[paweather]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I'd love for that to verify for you guys who live south of I-80, but places like UNV and definitely AOO are living on the edge with the warm layer aloft for a time. Models are showing a real pounding for a good few hours on the front end which can hopefully keep the heavy sleet to maybe Rt 22 and south, but if the warmer models are right, it would cut back quite a bit up to I-80 and even up to IPT. I could see the 14-15" being predicted for State College if the heavy snow comes in fast like a wall and the warmth can be held at bay, but I can also see it being 7-9" of quicksand from a surging warm layer. I'm really not seeing how Harrisburg gets 8". Hopefully I'm wrong and it's an overproducer, but I've gotten burned a few times on these storms when I lived in State College in the mid-late 2000s. 

at least they made a call. Geez everyone is such a backstreet QB. My goodness. I actually love the fact they made a call on what they think will happen. This is not taking models straight to what that may say. 

[paweather]

JM welcome back to the forum it has been awhile. 

[2001kx]

The first time they mention mixed precip in my point and click forecast.

 

Saturday

Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 28. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. East wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow showers, freezing rain, and sleet before 7am, then a chance of snow showers. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -5. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

[skiier04]

49 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

The first time they mention mixed precip in my point and click forecast.

 

Saturday

Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 28. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. East wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow showers, freezing rain, and sleet before 7am, then a chance of snow showers. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -5. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Looks like their latest map actually bumped UNV up to 15"... pretty crazy

[pasnownut]

as i parse through the overnights, i can only think CTP is using this as their in house model.  All the biggies, have not been kind to the LSV and southern 1/3 as they really cut us back, but this guys who us snow/frozen hounds gotta hug

 

[pasnownut]

only upside for me is w/ temp/dews right now, I wont lose a flake down here.  Column is saturated. 

I may need that to build my snowball

#glass1/4full

[pasnownut]

from the looks of that map above, mby will have 12" and my front yard 4"

 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

only upside for me is w/ temp/dews right now, I wont lose a flake down here.  Column is saturated. 

I may need that to build my snowball

#glass1/4full

This wall of heavy precip is heading our way. The initial precip is way out ahead of the low. This can dump heavy snow on us before any mixing impacts from the final low track need to be handled. Once the actual low approaches PA, the damage in terms of snow would already be done. Hopefully then after that, we just have a few hours of mixed precip at the end to lock in our snowpack.

[Blizzard of 93]

53 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

from the looks of that map above, mby will have 12" and my front yard 4"

 

Maybe CTP is just buying the NAM ?

 

[Blizzard of 93]

There is plenty of frigid air not too far away in southern Canada & northern New England that can feed in to the storm.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This wall of heavy precip is heading our way. The initial precip is way out ahead of the low. This can dump heavy snow on us before any mixing impacts from the final low track need to be handled. Once the actual low approaches PA, the damage in terms of snow would already be done. Hopefully then after that, we just have a few hours of mixed precip at the end to lock in our snowpack.

That’s what I’m hoping for. Front end to over preform. 

[WmsptWx]

Not feeling it today, guys. Just don't think this is going to happen.

[Voyager]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

Not feeling it today, guys. Just don't think this is going to happen.

That's my thought upon waking up this morning. The temp is still right at 32 so there was only a 3 degree drop since last night. I'd have been much more comfortable if we got down into the mid 20's at least. CTP did lower my totals in the warning text to 4-8 and the probabilistic map from 8-12 to 6-8.

Of course, I don't know what 850's are doing, but a surface temp at 32 first thing in the morning is not at all comforting, especially when we probably have about 6 hours until the onset of precipitation. The surface could warm a few degrees such as that by the time the precip starts, we are already in the mid/upper 30's. The air already seems to be saturated, so how much (if any) dynamic cooling could we get?

[Bubbler86]

I fear iI am going to bust too high on my accums.  I knew we did not have the Arctic air and talked myself into thinking otherwise.    It is 35 here with a dp of 32 right now. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I fear iI am going to bust too high on my accums.  I knew we did not have the Arctic air and talked myself into thinking otherwise.    It is 35 here with a dp of 32 right now. 

31/28 on this side

[TheDreamTraveler]

5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

31/28 on this side

33 near Harrisburg...It's definitely going to be close. I feel like most of the models will be right with the quicker changeover to mixed percip. I guess all that matters is how heavy the rates are before that happens. Here's hoping I guess lol

[Santa Clause]

28/25

[TheDreamTraveler]

How is the ice threat looking? The WSW is calling for 0.10-0.20 of ice accumulation instead of the 0.25 they were saying the other day.