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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Kinda of warm tonight. Hope we can get those lows down as low as we can go. 

To this point, the dew points for noon tomorrow are terrible on the HRRR.  Have not used it much for DP before so maybe someone can chime in and suggest whether its temp forecasts are reliable.  Hopefully not.  

image.png.9edff3848fc85f8d11f520ce5ab8e640.png

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

To this point, the dew points for noon tomorrow are terrible on the HRRR.  Have not used it much for DP before so maybe someone can chime in and suggest whether its temp forecasts are reliable.  Hopefully not.  

image.png.9edff3848fc85f8d11f520ce5ab8e640.png

 

 

 

NWS point and click has me low of 27 high of 31 tomorrow. With 4-8” of snow interesting. Somehow the cold air stays locked in or there will be a big bust. 

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23 minutes ago, pawatch said:

They have been pretty steadfast for the last couple days. 

Down by Harrisburg and the Turnpike, it's more bullish than I'd go. I'd shave a few inches off that. You really need a NAM come in like a wall solution that holds off the warmth aloft as long as possible. And up further north it's also risky. UNV getting 14" is if they stay about all snow. It could easily be 7-10" if the warm air aloft wins out and the sleet line races north. This isn't an easy forecast from I-80 south. I lived in State College long enough to see promising events like these turn to an icy mess at the last minute because of warmer air aloft than expected. A day before the 2/14/07 event, 18" of snow was expected there and it ended up with 10-11" icy gunk. 

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I'm just saying lol. The horde of mongrels are going to slip and slide they way to NWS offices on Monday crying "Fake News" and holding cardboard cutouts of local weathermen, screaming into bull horns and shouting out their name, if this busts so hard. 

The last thing the metrological community needs is people holding up a groundhog in regard while saying "If I was as wrong as the weatherman, I'd lose my job."

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21 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

NAM is an LSV ice storm as it continues to have trouble with the SLP location.  Not exactly confidence inspiring as it flashes between different points of low pressure from panel to panel.  

That is concerning as we are inside 24. Tells me that it is still uncertain as to when the transfer to southern slide happens. Not sure what that does to forecasts ir WAA. 

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

That is concerning as we are inside 24. Tells me that it is still uncertain as to when the transfer to southern slide happens. Not sure what that does to forecasts ir WAA. 

Yeah frustrating this late in the game models don’t know what to do. This is 2019 not 1989.

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Well...I very unexpectedly hit my high of the day at 7:00pm with a reading of 38.1.  My afternoon high had been 36.0 and began to fall a bit around sunset.  Then it mysteriously began to rise again up to the new high.  The temp has only dropped back to 36.5 as of this writing.  Not only that but when I went to the grocery store a short time ago there were raindrops on my front and rear windshields.  Uh-oh?:(

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well...I very unexpectedly hit my high of the day at 7:00pm with a reading of 38.1.  My afternoon high had been 36.0 and began to fall a bit around sunset.  Then it mysteriously began to rise again up to the new high.  The temp has only dropped back to 36.5 as of this writing.  Not only that but when I went to the grocery store a short time ago there were raindrops on my front and rear windshields.  Uh-oh?:(

Yea not much encouraging going on right now.  We are going to need an overzealous/under modeled high to come to our rescue.  

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Well...I very unexpectedly hit my high of the day at 7:00pm with a reading of 38.1.  My afternoon high had been 36.0 and began to fall a bit around sunset.  Then it mysteriously began to rise again up to the new high.  The temp has only dropped back to 36.5 as of this writing.  Not only that but when I went to the grocery store a short time ago there were raindrops on my front and rear windshields.  Uh-oh?

Yeah not a good sign. I have a theory that CTP is overcompensating for the November bust. People were pissed and they are showing that they will err on the side of caution. It’s the only thing that makes sense. I mean, it’s just too warm.
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