Central PA - Winter 2018-19

[Bubbler86]

Just now, pasnownut said:

I dare you to post that in the MA thread....then sit back and 

I am going to get enough flak for it here but the WRF is still a decent short analysis tool.  Probably a step below the HRRR.  Seriously just looking for support for CTP's call. 

 

 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

Shit. Are we about to do the south march to end south marches? 

historically inside of 24, we do the S jog a bit, and we only need....a bit. 

That is and has been part of why I've been hanging on for dear life w/ this and being the stick in the.....SNOW.  

Only because we are so close to something...not cause I'm wishing this one in (even though my inner weenie really is).  

[pasnownut]

Just now, bubbler86 said:

I am going to get enough flak for it here but the WRF is still a decent short analysis tool.  Probably a step below the HRRR.  Seriously just looking for support for CTP's call. 

 

 

hey 

 

I'll hug it.

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I dare you to post that in the MA thread....then sit back a

I'm on it. 

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Look at that cold wedge running down the 81 corridor into VA.

the further that goes and every hour longer it holds, can only help us up here.  IF we get into the good rates of 1-2"/hr, we all know what the math is if we hang on a little longer.  We might not go big, but we get something appreciable and less time tainting.  

[clarks green snow]

Wow-I see everyone is under a warning but up here above Scranton I am under a Watch with the following forecast for Waverly:

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.

Saturday

Snow, mainly after 3pm. High near 29. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 10 inches.

Sunday

Snow, mainly before 10am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 10am. High near 23. Wind chill values as low as -1. North wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

[pasnownut]

Dont look now, but the 18z NAM LP is about 50-75miles SW of 12z through 24.

Strap in gang.....

[Bubbler86]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Dont look now, but the 18z NAM LP is about 50-75miles SW of 12z through 24.

Strap in gang.....

It starts south but surprisingly jumps toward the Maxon Dixon later on. 

[MAG5035]

Before I forget I did end up with about a 1.5" total from last night. Yard snow depth was about 3.5-4" this morning which might have shrunk a little bit. But it's been an overcast and sometimes hazy/foggy day around here and temps have managed to creep up to around 34-35ºF ish.

[2001kx]

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Before I forget I did end up with about a 1.5" total from last night. Yard snow depth was about 3.5-4" this morning which might have shrunk a little bit. But it's been an overcast and sometimes hazy/foggy day around here and temps have managed to creep up to around 34-35ºF ish.

Thats what i got as well ( 1.5") but i dont have that much on the ground....yet.

[WmsptWx]

12 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm on it. 

My hero. I'm too busy at Weis trying to score some storm strange. 

[2001kx]

 

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

It starts south but surprisingly jumps toward the Maxon Dixon later on. 

We still have time with 3 more sets of runs/data to parse through and in truth, the qpf was much stronger in S 1/2 while column still supported snow.  That alone would get it done for us LSV'rs.  IF, IF we get another move like that, column will adjust and the word BOOM comes to mind.  Regardless, i'd still sign right now.

Look at the snow maps.  7 in lanco, and 21 in northern lebanon.  THAT is a tight gradient folks.

[MAG5035]

Updated CTP short term:

Quote

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Major storm continues to have Central PA square in it`s sights.
We have very high confidence in high impacts for almost all of
the CWA. We have medium confidence of high impacts over the
SErn-most counties. The threats change from N-S. Pure/only snow
with SLRs of 14-16:1 along the NY border down to about I-80
(slightly lower SLRs as you move south). There is still a chance
of turning to sleet in the central band of counties (basically
along route 22). The southern tier is almost certain to change
from snow to sleet and freezing rain. The far SE (adams, york,
lanc counties) may even turn to plain rain for a couple of hours
before the precip tapers off. Yet, they will have such a mix
that it will likely impact travel there, esp on the interstates,
to put up the warning all over the area.

The snow will probably start off with a bang - falling heavily
in many/all places from mid-aftn through midnight. The chance
for 1+"/hr rates is very high across much of the area according
to latest prob/ens guidance, esp in the SW and central zones in
the afternoon-early evening, and the central and NE zones late
aftn-midnight. Totals have been solid/persistent for quite a few
shifts/cycles. Have not moved much from the previous forecasts,
only to add a couple of inches to the AOO-UNV-SEG corridor. Did
nip a few hours off the end of the warning/watch to end it at
18Z Sun, since all models end the steadiest precip between 11
and 13Z.

The wind kicks in over the NW in the middle of the night, and
around sunrise in the SE. Gusts into the 20s will be common.
Blowing snow is expected over the nrn two-thirds of the area
where mostly snow will have fallen. But the stuff on the ground
in the southern area may be so heavy after IP/ZR/RA that it
should not blow around as much. Temps will be down to the single
digits by sunrise in Warren Co, with the wind chill already well
below zero by then.

 

[sauss06]

Heard it’s gone snow

[WmsptWx]

Well, there ya go. They expect a pounding early.

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

We still have time with 3 more sets of runs/data to parse through and in truth, the qpf was much stronger in S 1/2 while column still supported snow.  That alone would get it done for us LSV'rs.  IF, IF we get another move like that, column will adjust and the word BOOM comes to mind.  Regardless, i'd still sign right now.

Look at the snow maps.  7 in lanco, and 21 in northern lebanon.  THAT is a tight gradient folks.

 

Just a little leery of the way it is changing focus on low centers seemingly each panel.  29 is in Eastern KY, 30 goes backwards to Central KY, 31, back to East, 32 goes to Southern KY, 36 goes to Northern WV, 39 goes due South to VA (it transferred).  Seems it is having issues and I am a Nam Fan so hurts to say it. 

[WmsptWx]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

Heard it’s gone snow

I thought you were dead. Judging from that picture, you may still be.

[vortmax]

20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Dont look now, but the 18z NAM LP is about 50-75miles SW of 12z through 24.

Strap in gang.....

Not much confidence in the NAM solutions per the WPC...

 

Preference: Non 12Z NAM blend

Confidence: Slightly Above Average

 

...19Z update...

 

The differences between the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC and their previous

00z cycles were minor with a non 12Z NAM blend continuing to

appear best for the central and eastern U.S.

 

...previous discussion below...

 

Model clustering continues to slowly tighten with each cycle, such

that confidence is a bit above average for the track and evolution

of the upper trough and surface low moving from the central to

eastern U.S. this weekend.  However, the 12Z NAM stands out the

greatest from the relatively tight model clustering with its

surface low tracking faster/east compared to the remaining

deterministic and ensemble consensus. This is due to a slightly

flatter low-mid level wave in the NAM. The 12Z NAM also differs

with its 700 mb evolution across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with

a less consolidated wave. While the 12Z NAM is not a significant

outlier, there is enough difference to exclude it from the overall

preference across the central and eastern U.S.

[pasnownut]

21 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

It starts south but surprisingly jumps toward the Maxon Dixon later on. 

saw that at 36, but then jumps 150 miles south next panel.  if we can retard that jump north a bit, it likely helps keep the column from too much taint for non frozen variety down here.  Boy its a thumping for many though

[Porsche]

Kuchera

[sauss06]

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I thought you were dead. Judging from that picture, you may still be.

I too went to Weis Market..........

Though i'm all about the event, whatever it is, my biggest concern is after whatever happens snow , sleet or frzn, is the brutal temps on sunday night into monday morning. any idea of winds?

[paweather]

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected. * WHERE...South central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. Heavy snow will move into the area Saturday afternoon and last into the late evening. A change to sleet and freezing rain will occur during the night. The heaviest of the snow will be from early afternoon through late evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Precipitation will taper off around sunrise Sunday, but the wind will become stronger and cold air will drop the wind chills and produce blowing snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Just a little leery of the way it is changing focus on low centers seemingly each panel.  29 is in Eastern KY, 30 goes backwards to Central KY, 31, back to East, 32 goes to Southern KY, 36 goes to Northern WV, 39 goes due South to VA (it transferred).  Seems it is having issues and I am a Nam Fan so hurts to say it. 

most definitely something to be nervous about buying into.  To your point it could be back in N WVA tonight and wrecks the mids earlier, and we rain.  CTP's update (from Mag) gives cautious optimism that the big guns are behind and in support of the front line weenies wishes for better down here.

[Voyager]

I'll say this. If the NAM were to somehow be correct with both the kuchera snow totals and the ice totals. Say bye bye to Voyager for awhile. Ten inches of snow followed by 1.11 inches of ice would be destruction of an epic proportion. Add in the frigid temps and winds afterwards and the tree and power line damage would be historic. We'd probably be without power for weeks... Thankfully, we've never seen that much ice here, and I highly doubt we'd see it this time, either.

The speculation of such a scenario, though, is mind boggling.

 

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Not much confidence in the NAM solutions per the WPC...

 

Preference: Non 12Z NAM blend

Confidence: Slightly Above Average

 

...19Z update...

 

The differences between the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC and their previous

00z cycles were minor with a non 12Z NAM blend continuing to

appear best for the central and eastern U.S.

 

...previous discussion below...

 

Model clustering continues to slowly tighten with each cycle, such

that confidence is a bit above average for the track and evolution

of the upper trough and surface low moving from the central to

eastern U.S. this weekend.  However, the 12Z NAM stands out the

greatest from the relatively tight model clustering with its

surface low tracking faster/east compared to the remaining

deterministic and ensemble consensus. This is due to a slightly

flatter low-mid level wave in the NAM. The 12Z NAM also differs

with its 700 mb evolution across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with

a less consolidated wave. While the 12Z NAM is not a significant

outlier, there is enough difference to exclude it from the overall

preference across the central and eastern U.S.

thats fine.  I'll hug the HRRR.  At least we have choices...lol

[Bubbler86]

Just now, pasnownut said:

thats fine.  I'll hug the HRRR.  At least we have choices...lol

Wait until the 18Z Rgem comes out and go up to the NY forum and let them know we have arbitrarily decided to toss it.

 

 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

most definitely something to be nervous about buying into.  To your point it could be back in N WVA tonight and wrecks the mids earlier, and we rain.  CTP's update (from Mag) gives cautious optimism that the big guns are behind and in support of the front line weenies wishes for better down here.

Great points Bubbler and nut. These models have been all over the place. CMC early on was warm, now colder more snow. GFS/EURO warm but out of the mid-long range period for this storm. NAM overdone as always but cold solution. There is not one consensus agreement with models. other than Northern PA will get hit hard. This is fun should be a great Saturday to watch it unfold grab a drink(s) and see what happens. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Great points Bubbler and nut. These models have been all over the place. CMC early on was warm, now colder more snow. GFS/EURO warm but out of the mid-long range period for this storm. NAM overdone as always but cold solution. There is not one consensus agreement with models. other than Northern PA will get hit hard. This is fun should be a great Saturday to watch it unfold grab a drink(s) and see what happens. 

wanna hug.....

hug this

[pasnownut]

All joking aside, no matter how it shakes out....

This is a lot of fun (and likely more than I should be having while working). 

Thank god i can multitask.  When I cant, I'll probably not be able to sell....so I'll just sit here and talk weather w/ you weenies.