Central PA - Winter 2018-19

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I truly hope true Central PA  gets wamboozled. 

Beaut is we’re all gonna get some. We typically don’t do well in these so I think while we are bummed, we are realists going in so we know it doesn’t usually work as well down here. This week we’ve been (and still are IMO) painfully close to something pretty nice. As I alluded to earlier this week (and Mag just reiterated) we are in prime climo so perfect isn’t a necessity to get it done. That has been my stance for the last week. Just needed the players to show up and we can be in the game. 

[WmsptWx]

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

But what if they eat it on this one? LOL

They have eaten it on so many this one is not going to make a difference.  Hey at least it excites the natives and sells bread.

[canderson]

WHAT THE F. That graphic is over the WSW even.

@MAG5035 you're the pro here: What do you think CTP is seeing that us novice guys are missing in model studies? Clearly there is something different other than "they see cold air lasting longer" because they'd have a reason I can't imagine honestly.

I don't know if I've ever seen CTP this bullish on a marginal type setup. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

I don't pay attention to these maps regularly to know patterns/etc but interesting to note how much of Texas just east of our system currently and east PA/MD/VA GFS is busting too warm at the surface today from the 12z run just a few hours ago.

We know the GFS has a warm bias. That has played into my reasoning for why I thought we hang onto something frozen for longer. Cad always overachieves and we have cold north and climo that will aid in keeping column cold enough. 

Thats the train I left the station with and will ride to the end.

If I fail....I’ve learned something.  All good

 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Even tho I don’t like where I am that is a beautiful map and one not often seen. Congrats to many. 

[CarlislePaWx]

I think they are really expecting the "big thump" that we've talked about all week.  Look at them referring to snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr and locally higher Saturday evening.  With those rates it's easy to see how quickly you could reach those accumulation totals even with the change thrown in afterwards.

[anotherman]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

WHAT THE F. That graphic is over the WSW even.

@MAG5035 you're the pro here: What do you think CTP is seeing that us novice guys are missing in model studies? Clearly there is something different other than "they see cold air lasting longer" because they'd have a reason I can't imagine honestly.

I don't know if I've ever seen CTP this bullish on a marginal type setup. 

Could it be a response to what happened in November?  People were taken by surprise.

[Jns2183]

Here is something interesting from SREF land. Even though the mean for Harrisburg is 5.04” after taking out 2 highest/ 2 lowest there are 3 distinct camps. Low-end is 1-3”, middle is 6-8”, high is 11-12”.



The low-end is further broken down into 2 camps with those around 1” being just funky with start times having the snow start at noon or before & just being very light & having a switch over by 6 or 7 & the second camp being 2-3” with an intensity profile of the first band just being much less intense than higher totals with a flip by 1am or even 7am.



The higher 2 camps pretty much have same intensity, all starting between 3-6pm mostly, with the 6-8” having a change over between 10pm-1pm and the 11-12” pretty much not changing over.




. Pro

[Bubbler86]

The Meso WRF model's are much colder than the Global models at this point.  They only go to 48 on TT but really give credence to the High being more assertive in draining CAD down the valleys east of the mountains.  Still they do not support big snow totals...at least not up to a foot in MDT.   These are also from 0Z.  Trying to find some support for these snow totals on the Warning. 

 

Notice position of the Low at 7PM tomorrow:

 

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Here is something interesting from SREF land. Even though the mean for Harrisburg is 5.04” after taking out 2 highest/ 2 lowest there are 3 distinct camps. Low-end is 1-3”, middle is 6-8”, high is 11-12”.



The low-end is further broken down into 2 camps with those around 1” being just funky with start times having the snow start at noon or before & just being very light & having a switch over by 6 or 7 & the second camp being 2-3” with an intensity profile of the first band just being much less intense than higher totals with a flip by 1am or even 7am.



The higher 2 camps pretty much have same intensity, all starting between 3-6pm mostly, with the 6-8” having a change over between 10pm-1pm and the 11-12” pretty much not changing over.




. Pro

Thanks for sharing.  Obviously some uncertaintly remains....even if the SREF's. 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

The Meso WRF model's are much colder than the Global models at this point.  They only go to 48 on TT but really give credence to the High being more assertive in draining CAD down the valleys east of the mountains.  Still they do not support big snow totals...at least not up to a foot in MDT.   These are also from 0Z.  Trying to find some support for these snow totals on the Warning. 

 

Notice position of the Low at 7PM tomorrow:

 

ICE ice baby....

[Bubbler86]

Just now, pasnownut said:

ICE ice baby....

One of the WRF's just flipped over to 12Z.  Whaaaa....12-18" area wide. Jackpots Cashtown.  LOL  Not kidding. 

[CarlislePaWx]

I can report BINOVC here just developing.  High temp has hit 35.1.  Should have stuck with my 36...lol.  I would also say that radiative effects have now taken out 60-70% of last night's snow.

[Voyager]

All I can say is that I'm so glad I chose not to go back out on another run yesterday after I returned from North Carolina. If I would have, I'd have likely drawn a 3 day trip somewhere that would have gotten me home late Saturday afternoon or evening. Now with the State of Emergency and the ban on commercial vehicles, I probably wouldn't have gotten home at all, and would have been stuck out for AT LEAST one extra day, alone in a truckstop or rest area somewhere, waiting for the Governor to lift the ban. No thanks. I would rather enjoy this storm from the comforts of home with my wife and family.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I can report BINOVC here just developing.  High temp has hit 35.1.  Should have stuck with my 36...lol.  I would also say that radiative effects have now taken out 60-70% of last night's snow.

I'm home and i have 36.2 here. Almost all of last night's snow is history. 

[2001kx]

The gfs is making me nervous for here..Im right on the gradient.

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

ICE ice baby....

Look at that cold wedge running down the 81 corridor into VA.

[JTrout]

Did anyone see the Euro at 240. If that verified, I wonder what kind of surface temps would make it all the way to the Maxon Dixon. -20 or so??? Looks crazy 

[JTrout]

[pasnownut]

Just now, bubbler86 said:

One of the WRF's just flipped over to 12Z.  Whaaaa....12-18" area wide. Jackpots Cashtown.  LOL  Not kidding. 

My wonder is if the cold dome above us, as well as climo may save the day (and the column).  I know the "no blocking" stuff has come up over the past week, but just a couple years back we did a nice end to winter sans blocking.  We DO have cold close, and honestly i think its possible that may be at play.  

 

13 minutes ago, Voyager said:

All I can say is that I'm so glad I chose not to go back out on another run yesterday after I returned from North Carolina. If I would have, I'd have likely drawn a 3 day trip somewhere that would have gotten me home late Saturday afternoon or evening. Now with the State of Emergency and the ban on commercial vehicles, I probably wouldn't have gotten home at all, and would have been stuck out for AT LEAST one extra day, alone in a truckstop or rest area somewhere, waiting for the Governor to lift the ban. No thanks. I would rather enjoy this storm from the comforts of home with my wife and family.

 

State of emergency?

 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Look at that cold wedge running down the 81 corridor into VA.

If the Wrf's are to be believed, the Nam is going to hold ground with a colder solution. 

[Voyager]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

My wonder is if the cold dome above us, as well as climo may save the day (and the column).  I know the "no blocking" stuff has come up over the past week, but just a couple years back we did a nice end to winter sans blocking.  We DO have cold close, and honestly i think its possible that may be at play.  

 

State of emergency?

 

Yuppers...

https://wnep.com/2019/01/18/emergency-measures-in-place-ahead-of-weekend-winter-weather/

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

My wonder is if the cold dome above us, as well as climo may save the day (and the column).  I know the "no blocking" stuff has come up over the past week, but just a couple years back we did a nice end to winter sans blocking.  We DO have cold close, and honestly i think its possible that may be at play.  

 

 

I have been one of those no block guys but I believe we get a whopper of a storm as long as the low does not come up to near Pitt on a North Easterly Trajectory.  If the minimal blocking/cold dome is enough to persuade it east then CTP is going to be very right.  If it makes it up near Pitt then I think the LSV is rain eventually. 

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I can report BINOVC here just developing.  High temp has hit 35.1.  Should have stuck with my 36...lol.  I would also say that radiative effects have now taken out 60-70% of last night's snow.

we are at 33 as of 30 min ago and still retaining, but it has compacted and we've lost maybe 10-20% at a guess.  

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

If the Wrf's are to be believed, the Nam is going to hold ground with a colder solution. 

Happy hour on a friday might get REAL happy were that to be true.  

If not, at least we can have a drink to ease the pain.

[Bubbler86]

Eye candy.  LOL.  

[WmsptWx]

Shit. Are we about to do the south march to end south marches? 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Eye candy.  LOL.  

I dare you to post that in the MA thread....then sit back and 

[MAG5035]

17 minutes ago, canderson said:

WHAT THE F. That graphic is over the WSW even.

@MAG5035 you're the pro here: What do you think CTP is seeing that us novice guys are missing in model studies? Clearly there is something different other than "they see cold air lasting longer" because they'd have a reason I can't imagine honestly.

I don't know if I've ever seen CTP this bullish on a marginal type setup. 

Here was my post from the previous page.

36 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Wow 12-16" in the warning grouping for here. 10-16" on the northern counties. I'm very intrigued as to why CTP has been especially adamant on this being dominant on the frozen end. The 12z guidance today hasn't exactly instilled any confidence in me making a call for 10+ in the AOO/UNV corridor although warning snows are definitely likely. They could be taking precip intensity into account as this looks to be a fairly fast and very hard hitting storm in that department.. much like our November storm. That one overachieved in the LSV before mixing. Intense precip would keep an isothermal column for awhile when the warm air aloft tries to push in. They also could simply be factoring in climo too. This is the coldest time of the year, and we have arctic air to our north which should bleed in at the low levels to some degree as this storm approaches. This is hardly a frigid storm setup but it isn't necessarily a marginal one either.  

I don't think there's anything being particularly missed with model analysis, I mean it is right there on the major models where they warm things aloft for mixing over southern parts.. but most have front end snows. I'll live or die with this but with the 12z GFS track it is NOT raining to Williamsport with this as it depicted. I do think as stated above that this will be a fairly fast and very hard hitting system that could deliver warning totals to the LSV up front before mixing, which could be where CTP is going with that. I dunno about 8-12" in H-burg but 6" isn't out of the question before mixing. There's likely to be pretty intense lifting to go with the front end heavy snowfall in a large part of the column, which could bolster ratios some (kuchera doesn't account for that). Even just a 12-14:1 type snowfall would pile up pretty fast. I also disagree that it is a marginal setup. Marginal would be if it's in the 20s across the border in Quebec with not much high pressure. It's to be in the MINUS 20s to -30s up there. Strength in the high pressure in mb is not necessarily as important as the pressure gradient between a mid-upper 1030s high vs the approaching 990s low from the OH Valley. Air flows from high pressure to low pressure. Thus I think low level cold is being understated some with bleeding down from the north. The only thing marginal is the track of the 850mb low being a bit NW of where we'd want it... but otherwise this arctic air to the north is enough to force the storm mostly underneath us. 

But yea I am surprised their numbers are that high, although I expected warnings for the whole area. I was anticipating more mixing and somewhat lower totals. One thing I don't expect this to be is an extended rainstorm, even in the far southern tier. I think we all see varying degrees of a front end thump.