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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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I'm not sure how 12z UKMET fared yet vs 0z via meteocentre models. It appears to be faster and does breach the southern half of PA with 850mb temps at or above 0ºC. But I'm not sure if the 0z UKMET did that because it was slower and the warmest frame would have been after 48hr where it goes to 12 hour increments. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Anyone else want to lay some chips out there? Final call: (same as I've been saying for 3 days) 

Lanco/York: 1"-3"

Harrisburg metro area: 2"-4" (Carlisle officially 3.3" :) )

Ridge and Valley: 4"-8"

Williamsport/MAG land: 6" - 10"

Nut's Cabin: 10" - 15"

I'll lay some chips out tomorrow at this time....:lol:

 

Ok fine.  I'm in.  Final call.  Troll me at will.... 

 

Lanc 1-2 south and 3-5 north  - then sleet/zr and couple hours of rain.  We lose some but not all then freeze solid

HBG -                   4-6 then ^^^

N/NW/NE of HBG - 6-9 then sleet/zr, maybe a little rain

State college          7-10 maybe a little mixing

N and NW/NE of state college...you suck....all snow 8-14

Cabin - 16

 

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59 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

No signs yet of approaching breaks in the overcast.  Temp only at 31.  Think we won't hit projected high of 40.  I predict 36.  Let's see how that turns out.

31 at noon here in etown.  I would have bet the farm (that i dont own) that the calls for 38-40 today would bust.  Nice overcast all morning, deck lifting now, but I think your 36-37 is solid call here as well.  not that it means much in the end, except we have lost little/nothing other than treated surfaces.  Some thought it would be gone.  I guess we have a few hours for that to happen.  Gut says no.

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Just now, pasnownut said:

31 at noon here in etown.  I would have bet the farm (that i dont own) that the calls for 38-40 today would bust.  Nice overcast all morning, deck lifting now, but I think your 36-37 is solid call here as well.  not that it means much in the end, except we have lost little/nothing other than treated surfaces.  Some thought it would be gone.  I guess we have a few hours for that to happen.  Gut says no.

Its already 39 here.  Still overcast just so far south.  LOL.  

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I'm planning on taking Amtrak from Lancaster to Philadelphia early Saturday, then coming back on the 6:55 to 8:10 train.  Am I running any kind of risk of getting stuck in Philadelphia?  I'm having trouble telling when the various types of precipitation start based on these maps.  Any help would be appreciated, thanks!

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2 minutes ago, theLancster said:

I'm planning on taking Amtrak from Lancaster to Philadelphia early Saturday, then coming back on the 6:55 to 8:10 train.  Am I running any kind of risk of getting stuck in Philadelphia?  I'm having trouble telling when the various types of precipitation start based on these maps.  Any help would be appreciated, thanks!

no.  you should be fine.  may see some delays though

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Its already 39 here.  Still overcast just so far south.  LOL.  

Looks like we're in a CAD at the moment...lol.  Cold stuff still trapped at the surface.  I think CAD will absolutely be in play tomorrow night regardless of what the maps show or don't show right now.

BTW, I'm thinking of lowering my predicted high temp to 35.  Still thick overcast and temp only up to 32.9.

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Looks like we're in a CAD at the moment...lol.  Cold stuff still trapped at the surface.  I think CAD will absolutely be in play tomorrow night regardless of what the maps show or don't show right now.

BTW, I'm thinking of lowering my predicted high temp to 35.  Still thick overcast and temp only up to 32.9.

Yea, at 800 feet it can really change the playing field both good and bad.  10 miles to my south it is 35 at HGR.  I had a 2" snowpack this AM and it is 80% gone. 

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Looks like we're in a CAD at the moment...lol.  Cold stuff still trapped at the surface.  I think CAD will absolutely be in play tomorrow night regardless of what the maps show or don't show right now.
BTW, I'm thinking of lowering my predicted high temp to 35.  Still thick overcast and temp only up to 32.9.

CAD looks better on 12z Euro


.
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8 minutes ago, theLancster said:

I'm planning on taking Amtrak from Lancaster to Philadelphia early Saturday, then coming back on the 6:55 to 8:10 train.  Am I running any kind of risk of getting stuck in Philadelphia?  I'm having trouble telling when the various types of precipitation start based on these maps.  Any help would be appreciated, thanks!

They've already cancelled some trains and modified service. Check their website for current schedule. 

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

I was doubting my digital but I have a old fashioned bulb that is under a deep overhang and it is almost at 40 as well.    

not doubtin at all, just surprised #microclimate

I've decided I'm going to roll w/ whatevs and just have fun, cause win lose or melt, thats why I come in here... to chat up weather.

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

31 at noon here in etown.  I would have bet the farm (that i dont own) that the calls for 38-40 today would bust.  Nice overcast all morning, deck lifting now, but I think your 36-37 is solid call here as well.  not that it means much in the end, except we have lost little/nothing other than treated surfaces.  Some thought it would be gone.  I guess we have a few hours for that to happen.  Gut says no.

C'mon buddy, the only one that said that was...me. :) You can call me out. For what it's worth, the cloud deck has lifted here at work in the past 30 minutes and there are a few dim glimpses of sun. Actually I'd say about 25% of what we got has melted here, we'll see what happens...

 

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