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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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2 minutes ago, lpaschall said:

I dont trust anything the models put out outside of 36 hours. I have avoided our mid atlantic long range thread as its a roller coaster discussion that has zero usefulness.

Well hopefully I am not offending too many people with my short bursts of model discussion.  We are within 24-36 hours now.  I had a week where I was at my computer a lot so have been having fun with it and trying to keep even keeled through our little to no snow runs, like now, and the more excitable runs. 

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Well hopefully I am not offending too many people with my short bursts of model discussion.  I had a week where I was at my computer a lot so have been having fun with it and trying to keep even keeled through our little to no snow runs, like now, and the more excitable runs. 

Not at all and I am here because my forum threw in the towel on this storm and I am on the fringes of this forum. Was primarily focusing on the long discussions about MJO, STS, etc... and what the long range models have 384 days out lol....

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6 minutes ago, lpaschall said:

I dont trust anything the models put out outside of 36 hours. I have avoided our mid atlantic long range thread as its a roller coaster discussion that has zero usefulness.

I'm with you on that.  The -NAO keeps getting pushed back (always two weeks away).  The one positive sign is the -AO does look to come to fruition, but it could also immediately bounce back into positive territory, so all you can do is shrug your shoulders.  The MJO isn't helping at all, doing laps in warm phases.

Long range forecasts have been extra unreliable this winter.

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4 minutes ago, lpaschall said:

Not at all and I am here because my forum threw in the towel on this storm and I am on the fringes of this forum. Was primarily focusing on the long discussions about MJO, STS, etc... and what the long range models have 384 days out lol....

This one has been frustrating to me as it seemed apparent, early week, that there was nothing that was going to stop this low from getting up to or north of us...then the models kept hinting, almost every other run, that the low could jump and transfer southeast just in time to turn a big rain storm into a MECS so it lured me in.

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

This one has been frustrating to me as it seemed apparent, early week, that there was nothing that was going to stop this low from getting up to or north of us...then the models kept hinting, almost every other run, that the low could jump and transfer southeast just in time to turn a big rain storm into a MECS so it lured me in.

Don't you know that since the internet and us weenies having access to the models, the programmers put that extra code in there for the models to do that...just to aggravate us. Then they join the forums, and lurk, laughing as we go emotional over each model run. :ph34r:

:lol:

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Just now, Voyager said:

Don't you know that since the internet and us weenies having access to the models, the programmers put that extra code in there for the models to do that...just to aggravate us. Then they join the forums, and lurk, laughing as we go emotional over each model run. :ph34r:

:lol:

I guess I have an affinity to track one that looked bad but surprised us.  :-) 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Anyone else want to lay some chips out there? Final call: (same as I've been saying for 3 days) 

Lanco/York: 1"-3"

Harrisburg metro area: 2"-4" (Carlisle officially 3.3" :) )

Ridge and Valley: 4"-8"

Williamsport/MAG land: 6" - 10"

Nut's Cabin: 10" - 15"

 

Solid call, I'm sticking with my original.

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Anyone else want to lay some chips out there? Final call: (same as I've been saying for 3 days) 

Lanco/York: 1"-3"

Harrisburg metro area: 2"-4" (Carlisle officially 3.3" :) )

Ridge and Valley: 4"-8"

Williamsport/MAG land: 6" - 10"

Nut's Cabin: 10" - 15"

I'll accept your predictions...all but mine.  For me, 4.8".  LOL.

BTW, I hate trying to predict.  It's much more fun observing.  

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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I'll accept your predictions...all but mine.  For me, 4.8".  LOL.

BTW, I hate trying to predict.  It's much more fun observing.  

I agree, but at least this way I can put it out in the open how little I actually know. :) 

Interestingly...your guess and my guess are probably only separated by 1 extra hour of snow, which isn't much...

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Just now, Jns2183 said:

I’ll stick with my call yesterday of kmdt seeing 4” with a lot of ice with a caveat that within 12 miles south and north of the turnpike someone sees 2” and someone sees 8” with the key being how long after 6pm do the pingers start


. Pro

I agree with you on the gradient...except I'll say 2" - 6" within 12 miles. Should be fun to watch it unfold! 

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