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Central PA - Winter 2018-19

pasnownut

By pasnownut,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, djr5001 said:

That TT 10:1 map looks a little off to me as I don't see anything that supports it printing totals that high across southern tier of LSV even if there ends up being sleet involved.  Kuchera and Ferrier (available with 3km NAM on TT) are significantly lower with totals across that area.  Soundings have York to Lancaster corridor as freezing rain by 8pm tomorrow night.  I have long thought that the TT 10:1 map factors in surface temp in calculating snow totals, have been told that is not the case, but once again it is printing large snow amounts when surface temp is at or below freezing and upper air temps are above 0C.  Front end thump is going to be nice but sure looks to get messy after that because I just don't see the cold air at the surface warming all that quickly to above freezing if even at all (especially around I-81 stretch from Carlisle to east of Harrisburg).  Last image = major yuck

 

I concur with the story behind these maps.  What the models are showing right now is not a snow storm for the LSV.  A few inches, transition to sleet then a "warm" freezing rain where it may be 32 but the rain is falling so fast it is not cause as much damage as if it were 25.  

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

And? 

There's so many I didn't copy/paste, I was suggesting if interested to go take a look.

  • Seems like he's calling for 4"-6" along the "toll road"
  • Perhaps 1" near the M/D line
  • 18" in northcentral PA
  • Long duration freezing rain down here tomorrow night
  • Start time is 3pm, ends at 11am Sunday
  • .1 - .4 of ice
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Porsche

Porsche

Posted
Posted

A few mid-morning thoughts on upcoming impacts across the Lancaster area. • A moisture-rich & fast-moving storm--in and out in ~20 hours. • Snow begins ~3pm SAT...may come down heavy w/ sleet for a few hours, then over to an extended period of freezing rain overnight.

6:47 AM - 18 Jan 2019
 
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  1. New conversation
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      • A brief change back to snow is possible ~8am Sunday, then a quick end as gusty Arctic winds kick up. • Temps will fall throughout Sunday with a rapid refreeze of standing water/slush. • Low temps Sunday night in the single digits with sub-zero wind chills.

       
    •  

      • Front-end accumulation of snow & sleet will have a very sharp gradient...with <1" in Philly up to 18"+ in northcentral PA. Lancaster will reflect this gradient...perhaps only 1" near the MD boarder up to 4 to 6" along the Turnpike. Perhaps 2 to 4" of snow/sleet in Lanc city...

       
    •  

      • Ice accretion from the freezing rain Saturday night is the wild card. Surface temps are the critical factor...and this will vary town to town across the county...and so the amount of ice accretion may vary from 0.1" up to ~0.4". Tough to nuance such a complex storm.

       
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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
Just now, Porsche said:

A few mid-morning thoughts on upcoming impacts across the Lancaster area. • A moisture-rich & fast-moving storm--in and out in ~20 hours. • Snow begins ~3pm SAT...may come down heavy w/ sleet for a few hours, then over to an extended period of freezing rain overnight.

6:47 AM - 18 Jan 2019
 
  •  
 
  1. New conversation
    •  

      • A brief change back to snow is possible ~8am Sunday, then a quick end as gusty Arctic winds kick up. • Temps will fall throughout Sunday with a rapid refreeze of standing water/slush. • Low temps Sunday night in the single digits with sub-zero wind chills.

       
    •  

      • Front-end accumulation of snow & sleet will have a very sharp gradient...with <1" in Philly up to 18"+ in northcentral PA. Lancaster will reflect this gradient...perhaps only 1" near the MD boarder up to 4 to 6" along the Turnpike. Perhaps 2 to 4" of snow/sleet in Lanc city...

       
    •  

      • Ice accretion from the freezing rain Saturday night is the wild card. Surface temps are the critical factor...and this will vary town to town across the county...and so the amount of ice accretion may vary from 0.1" up to ~0.4". Tough to nuance such a complex storm.

       

Yeah...what he said. :) 

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, canderson said:

So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? 

Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting?

Shovel it as it flips and keep salting the hell out of it... 

Honestly, I don't know. That's always been my dilemma in these types of storms. When to shovel for maximum (and safe) effect and the least amount of work.

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, canderson said:

So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? 

Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting?

My plan is to try and time it right and do a round of clearing I would say late afternoon/early evening after the first few inches so that some additional snow falls before a changeover then don't touch it until ending on Sunday.  That way its not a full water logged and frozen heavy mess to try and shovel and its also not just ice that will be nearly impossible to use salt on Sunday once the arctic air starts to arrive and temps drop.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? 
Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting?


If it gets above freezing it will probably be between midnight and 7 am. After 7 it starts going into the freezer


. Pro
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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Jmister said:

Definitely jealous of you true Central PA guys this storm! 

I came to State College in 2007 from PHL and was expecting to get pummeled by I-95 runners but instead missed out on 3 of the top 5 PHL snows ever while the single best storm in UNV my ten winters was 14" in Feb 2010 (PHL recorded 28" :blink:).

Now that I'm back in the PHL area, these are the kinds of storms I hoped for back in State College. Figures.

Enjoy!

 

I'm pretty sure at least from looking at some of the KPSU observation archives that if the State College area were to see 10"+ from this storm that it would be the first time since the 95-96 winter for having multiple 10"+ events. Not even 02-03, 03-04, or 09-10 had that there (only 1 per winter). It doesn't happen too often even in the snowier winters. 

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? 

Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting?

I try to clear off after things mix/change over and put salt down, and usually that'll make any sleet/ice easier to remove. Especially if there ends up being a good bit of sleet.. sometimes that's worse than having a crusty top to the snow.  That or leave whatever snow is there til the event's over but with the possibility of a rapid refreeze that might not be the best idea for this scenario. 

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kdskidoo

kdskidoo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm pretty sure at least from looking at some of the KPSU observation archives that if the State College area were to see 10"+ from this storm that it would be the first time since the 95-96 winter for having multiple 10"+ events. Not even 02-03, 03-04, or 09-10 had that there (only 1 per winter). It doesn't happen too often even in the snowier winters. 

 

wow, that's some stat.  I would have never thought multiple double digit storms in one winter are all that rare in central PA, especially out that way.  seems the last 10 years or so the big ones have def

initely hit more south and east areas.

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

Hi all.  Just caught up from overnight posts.  Ended up with 1.9" total from the snow which was certainly more than I was initially thinking at the beginning last night despite how adamant the models seemed at painting 2" totals.

Regarding tomorrow...wow.  NWS earlier update had me at 6".  Then the newer update now says 6 to 8".  Definitely have tilted the gradient lines.  This morning's NAM shows about 6" of snow but then 0.50" of freezing rain.  Yikes.  I'm in the max freezing rain area.  This would be reminiscent of the Jan 1994 snow/ice storm that preceded the record cold wave.

Even Horst seemed to be playing up his concern about ZR.  That was my takeaway from his discussion.

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Seems reasonable. (amounts and temperatures) 

If the Euro holds its ground they may cancel the WSW.  I am a huge believer in Cad but you need something pushing the air down the east side of the slopes for it to be a factor and not seeing a lot of cad signatures in the thermal parts of the maps.  Again if we currently had arctic air over us it would be one thing but it is going to be 40 today and above freezing again tomorrow before the precip starts.  Just not a signal for a real ice storm unless the afternoon runs are wrong and our wind direction can be changed more quickly by the low, whether on surface or transfer, being deflected more south. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, daxx said:

I thought the gfs looked terrible.   Not good for a lot of people except the far north.

Yep, unless we get some movement in that LP position this is quickly turning into a non event for us. Still a little time left but would be a terrible bust for the models at this point.  As Nut had been adamant about we really just need that lead Vort to stay 50 miles further south than progged.  Fingers crossed.  LOL. 

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