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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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54 minutes ago, anotherman said:

The worst part is looking at where the Low will be.  Perfect placement for LSV snow.  Damn.

Yep.  Show that map to anyone in any other January and you'd think "get the shovels ready"....but in reality its "get the mops".

Soon....soon my friends.  It's coming.

For now we wait.

 

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Hope y'all are rested.  Thinking we may be "gettin busy" next week. 

No major threats yet, but pattern flip is looking like its happening, and so far....12z's have been a nice step towards better days a comin.

 

I've been brushin up and reading my weather weenie handbook, so I'm ready to go. 

Wanna sound intelligent if/when needed.  :D

 

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10 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Hope y'all are rested.  Thinking we may be "gettin busy" next week. 

No major threats yet, but pattern flip is looking like its happening, and so far....12z's have been a nice step towards better days a comin.

 

I've been brushin up and reading my weather weenie handbook, so I'm ready to go. 

Wanna sound intelligent if/when needed.  :D

 

Yes sir!

The models starting with the Euro weeklies last night followed by today’s EPS & GEFS are all converging on the long awaited pattern change back to winter.

There will be many nights of staying up for the 0z Euro tracking the storms & rumors of storms.

We might even be in business as soon as next weekend to get the winter party going!

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes sir!

The models starting with the Euro weeklies last night followed by today’s EPS & GEFS are all converging on the long awaited pattern change back to winter.

There will be many nights of staying up for the 0z Euro tracking the storms & rumors of storms.

We might even be in business as soon as next weekend to get the winter party going!

Go look at my last couple posts/pics in the MA forum.  Yeah, next week is starting to look better.  Off to bed....much rest needed as it may get busy like you said.

gnight

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12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Go look at my last couple posts/pics in the MA forum.  Yeah, next week is starting to look better.  Off to bed....much rest needed as it may get busy like you said.

gnight

Yes, I saw those posts. The turn around from a couple of days ago to today has been remarkable. Those posters & pro Mets that were calling for a pattern change by mid January might end up being correct after all if the positive trends end up delivering.

The MJO is heading for phase 7 & 8. The SOI has been tanking the last few days. The strat effects should only help as well over the next few weeks.

We should be in for a fun winter ride!

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Looks like Wednesday storm is North of us.

Mean while Western US.

Powerful Pacific Storm to Impact California Today

High winds, heavy rain, and heavy mountain snow up to 50 inches, and snow into The Grapevine in southern California can be expected from today's storm. Localized downpours may cause flash flooding on burn scars across California. Strong to briefly severe storms with damaging winds, water spouts, and tornadoes can be expected along north and central California coastlines later today. Read More >

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The SOI today had another day with a good negative number of -18.60. This makes 3 straight days of double digit negative values. This is a good indicator of a pattern change in about 10 days or so.

The MJO forecast today continues to correct to the the good winter phases of 8 & 1. 

The weather models should only continue to show good looks showing up for later this week & especially the following week.

Our winter weather ship is heading in the right direction!

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The Euro monthly forecasts for February & March were just released yesterday. They are posted now in the Mid Atlantic thread if you want to take a look. 

They look like what you would expect if @pasnownut or I were able to draw the perfect pattern for cold & stormy winter weather!

This should be fun. Get your shovels ready!

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36 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Euro monthly forecasts for February & March were just released yesterday. They are posted now in the Mid Atlantic thread if you want to take a look. 

They look like what you would expect if @pasnownut or I were able to draw the perfect pattern for cold & stormy winter weather!

This should be fun. Get your shovels ready!

Yep! February 1st to March 15th looks like prime time for us...

Question is: can we sneak something in before then?

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15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep! February 1st to March 15th looks like prime time for us...

Yes, that’s true! ( I see what you did there & that was nicely done good sir...)

I also hope that we can have at least a week or 2 in January for a few bouts of wintry weather as well !

This place should be getting busy soon!

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Euro monthly forecasts for February & March were just released yesterday. They are posted now in the Mid Atlantic thread if you want to take a look. 

They look like what you would expect if @pasnownut or I were able to draw the perfect pattern for cold & stormy winter weather!

This should be fun. Get your shovels ready!

Dude I’m telling ya....it’s like they gave us the keys to the weather lockbox. If that verifies anything close to what PSU posted we will be ready for the April flip that was also posted. Voyager will like that one for sure. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep! February 1st to March 15th looks like prime time for us...

Question is: can we sneak something in before then?

Hey man. Keep your eye out at next Sunday. I posted in the other thread yesterday that I was liking the trends for that period and today seems to be showing more signs of potential. Like Bob suggested, it’s early in the flip but I feel that guidance is still in catch up mode and that’s why I think it’s worth watching. NS is better but lose that shortwave that shows on the GFS and it may be legit. If you like the GEM and digital snow...go take a peek. 

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14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Hey man. Keep your eye out at next Sunday. I posted in the other thread yesterday that I was liking the trends for that period and today seems to be showing more signs of potential. Like Bob suggested, it’s early in the flip but I feel that guidance is still in catch up mode and that’s why I think it’s worth watching. NS is better but lose that shortwave that shows on the GFS and it may be legit. If you like the GEM and digital snow...go take a peek. 

Oh I've been reading every post in that thread, trust me. :) To be honest I'm really excited about what is coming but at the same time I really think we have a little more time yet before we see a new pattern result in white gold in our yards. 

We'll see!

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, that’s true! ( I see what you did there & that was nicely done good sir...)

I also hope that we can have at least a week or 2 in January for a few bouts of wintry weather as well !

This place should be getting busy soon!

You know I posted that primarily with you in mind. :) Thanks for the compliment!

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Dude I’m telling ya....it’s like they gave us the keys to the weather lockbox. If that verifies anything close to what PSU posted we will be ready for the April flip that was also posted. Voyager will like that one for sure. 

After reading the past few pages of this thread, I think a 2 month visit with my mom in Phoenix is in order. 

What April flip, though? I missed where that was posted.

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13 hours ago, Voyager said:

After reading the past few pages of this thread, I think a 2 month visit with my mom in Phoenix is in order. 

What April flip, though? I missed where that was posted.

Euro monthlies show a rockin Feb/Mar, but then real spring for April as it turns to warm.  We get ours when we should, then you get yours....everyone's a winner.

 

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3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Euro monthlies show a rockin Feb/Mar, but then real spring for April as it turns to warm.  We get ours when we should, then you get yours....everyone's a winner.

 

I guess. I think I'd rather have a rockin Jan/Feb with a transitional March, though. Then on to full spring weather. Once we flip back to Daylight Savings I start to get spring fever.

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It's going to be interesting to see if this potential storm starts looking better on the models overall (more consistency). There's been something in the timeframe off and on but nothing concrete. As modeled right now it would be an example of wintering with above normal 850ºC anomalies and high 500 heights above being undercut by shortwaves. 

Regardless of if we get something from this, this potential pattern change looks to be coming and relatively soon at last compared to earlier fears of punting the whole month...although I think we could have the usual transitioning pattern issues. The MJO went from the border of phase 5/6 to cracking into phase 8 in less than five days. 

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looks like a few may see some unexpected flakes this morning . I see some SS forming on radar along the warm front in sw Pa. moveing ENE. Its light may not be getting to the ground. We now also will be under an advisory tonight for some ice may be even some flakes. Hope the 14th pans out. Looks like winter is starting to try to make a come back.  

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