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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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13 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Still looks like it is trying to go below us.  Most still frozen well into the event. Snowfall map is going to be juicy but again this TT map will include sleet.

Just fine.  It held on for 1 more round.  We are going to rain, but limiting that and warm air intrusion should be our quest.

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4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Its eventually goes with the southern vort taking it off the SE VA coast but like so many other runs the damage has already been done for our temps by that point.  Snow map looks great but Kuchera will not look nearly as good.

 

namconus_asnow_neus_17.png

 

 

had it not transferred, we'd have been much worse off IMO.  #graspingiknow

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Just now, anotherman said:

Yeah, I know.  Going to be interesting.  The NAM is such a tease, no....a temptress!

things to remember about the NAM

1 it likes to over amp storms

2 it does pretty well w/ thermals (being hi res)

BOTH of them can play in our favor for this storm evolution.

 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yes, but it is inside its "wheelhouse", so it should be gaining some weight in forecasts.

not saying we win, but we may just lose better....

At least the first 12Z model did not ruin the fun of watching the others :-).   And on this point, the Nam has not really changed at a lot since it got within 84 hours.  The GFS and Euro have jumped much more. 

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22 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

CTP keeps dropping the hammer further south but keeps a razor-sharp gradient right at the Flathead's house on the toll road.

They seem to be realigning the gradient to a more southwest to northeast trajectory. Last night it was a bit more west to east, and I was in the 8-12 zone. Per their latest map, I'm now in the 6-8 zone, so while some of your totals are increasing, mine are decreasing.

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Just now, Voyager said:

They seem to be realigning the gradient to a more southwest to northeast trajectory. Last night it was a bit more west to east, and I was in the 8-12 zone. Per their latest map, I'm now in the 6-8 zone, so while some of your totals are increasing, mine are decreasing.

Maybe the laid off IRS people are doing weather forecasts.  We will all owe snow if that is true. 

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Definitely jealous of you true Central PA guys this storm! 

I came to State College in 2007 from PHL and was expecting to get pummeled by I-95 runners but instead missed out on 3 of the top 5 PHL snows ever while the single best storm in UNV my ten winters was 14" in Feb 2010 (PHL recorded 28" :blink:).

Now that I'm back in the PHL area, these are the kinds of storms I hoped for back in State College. Figures.

Enjoy!

 

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That TT 10:1 map looks a little off to me as I don't see anything that supports it printing totals that high across southern tier of LSV even if there ends up being sleet involved.  Kuchera and Ferrier (available with 3km NAM on TT) are significantly lower with totals across that area.  Soundings have York to Lancaster corridor as freezing rain by 8pm tomorrow night.  I have long thought that the TT 10:1 map factors in surface temp in calculating snow totals, have been told that is not the case, but once again it is printing large snow amounts when surface temp is at or below freezing and upper air temps are above 0C.  Front end thump is going to be nice but sure looks to get messy after that because I just don't see the cold air at the surface warming all that quickly to above freezing if even at all (especially around I-81 stretch from Carlisle to east of Harrisburg).  Last image = major yuck

image.thumb.png.9f9b11943cf58530db9a1fb686882634.pngimage.thumb.png.8708d56b454179c0420c283059f7c1f5.pngimage.thumb.png.9472445731a023edece551119166dbd2.png

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