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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s very interesting that the Mt.Holly forecast office has 5-10 inches of snow for their Winter Storm Watch for Berks County & the Lehigh Valley. They must be even more confident than CTP for the colder solutions to win out.

They always are more aggresive w/ forecasts.  I read them, then extrapolate 1 county westward....lol

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Did Dave Tolleris put out his first guess on his first call on his first prediction yet? 

Who cares....you need to get to prediction #3 till he gets close.  J/K...sorta.  He hugs the Euro, and that detracts from the other skill he obviously has IMO.

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59 minutes ago, canderson said:

If the NAM is right I’ll buy every person in this thread as many drinks as they can handle at McGrath’s in hbg.

I'll come drink one w/ ya no matter the result...ya weenie.

What da frik happened.  I go play floor hockey and rehydrate at a pub, and its wowzers, for the 18/0z's.  

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

GFS is somewhat similar to icon's progression.  All 3 0Z runs so far are not far off on their low placements.  Playing into bias the NAM is extra juiced like usual.

yep so close no doubt. That high earlier in the week was 1039 now 1034. Need to keep the strength of that. for LSV this is a snow, ice, (maybe rain) back to snow 4-8". 

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

If anyone thinks this is over not even close. I do like Horst and glad he is sticking to what he said almost a week ago. But I don't want to forecast this. Literally GFS is a tick transfer away from being a bomb for most of PA. 

You said it, and its what I've been saying for a week (last Friday this storm got my interest).  I dont care who you are or how it turns out, there is not a forecaster out there that can pin em from +72 hours in situ's like this.  Not in a micro level anyway.  Macro...sure, they can get close, but close for us on the fringe is a BIG difference (as we all know too well).  

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8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

GFS is somewhat similar to icon's progression.  All 3 0Z runs so far are not far off on their low placements.  Playing into bias the NAM is extra juiced like usual.

look at last 3 runs, and you can see the SE progression, albeit slight, its there.  2 more ticks, and BOOM.  We still have time good/bad for that to happen.  

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

look at last 3 runs, and you can see the SE progression, albeit slight, its there.  2 more ticks, and BOOM.  We still have time good/bad for that to happen.  

I do not want to step on any Met's toes but would it surprise anyone at this point if that northern vort really did minor out and the southern vort takes over even farther south than the Nam or GFS show it.  Definitely a convoluted situation. 

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Canadian is MUCH improved from its 12z run. At 12z it had 5 inches at Harrisburg, but now at 0z it doubled it & has 10 !
Here is another Canadian snow map.
F60C1229-E432-41B2-9F1A-9F4A6C155ED2.thumb.png.8d3c2f5d3d70ffd5d0a7948fe6c2946d.png



Lancaster County has a gradient that goes from 1”-9”. Horst forecast could bust in opposite ways within a 20 mile radius of his location


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15 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I do not want to step on any Met's toes but would it surprise anyone at this point if that northern vort really did minor out and the southern vort takes over even farther south than the Nam or GFS show it.  Definitely a convoluted situation. 

and we forgot the "normal" N/S shifts yet to come inside of 36 hours.  We see it every storm.  I beat this drum because those of us in KPIT and LSV are this close to something notably more/better.  Not saying it to say "i told you so".  We all come here to chat/discuss/learn and even us weenies have seen enough to know that we are getting closer...and not just in time.  

Tomorrow might be a less than productive day for me/many.

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17 minutes ago, JTrout said:

Cmc colder, further south, not great but close for us on th fringe. 

Just saw that.  You said it well.  Nice 0z runs tonight.  Unfortunately, while theres enough time for more movement, we are likely getting pretty close to LP path.  Wouldnt expect big surprises from here in.

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I think (tongue in cheek) in situations like this, local meteorologist should put out a likely accumulation table for different local locations based upon the time you “hear the pingers”.

I.e.

Start time: 5PM
pingers start at: 9PM. 2-4”
pingers start at: 11PM. 4-6”
Etc


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Not so sure a solution shown by the NAVGEM, just not as extreme, should be totally disregarded at this point.  That is not necessarily good for us as it could be weaker and south but the Nam and Icon have been toying around with the early transfer idea for a couple days now.  If we had true arctic air in place, not just lingering near the US border, this thing would probably be bouncing down to Florida at this point and we would be praying for a phase instead of against it. 

 

Edit-The idea here is little to no phase just a juicy area of qpf traversing the mid and south US.  Highly unlikely at this close of a range but no phase is no phase...

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Just took my midnight reading for snowfall and I'm now up to 1.3" with light snow falling.  I guess there really is a shot of reaching 2.0" by morning looking at the fairly full radar to the west.  Not bad.  Temp not budging from 27.1 degrees.

I think most schools are delaying two hours so the storm did its deed.  This 1-2 snow has been consistently called on everything, except the hdprs, for a week now so lets give some credit to the short rangers.  The hate I see for the Nam is so misguided at times as well.  I do not want to go into any split model battle with the Nam against me. 

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