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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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Just now, Voyager said:

Thanks Jim. I was wondering if the elevations we're high enough for such a situation. I know that at times the cold air drains into the valleys such that Hazleton can be as much as 10-15 degrees warmer than where I live in Tamaqua.

they are not tall enough to be anything like the rockies or even the Smoky Mountains. But they are just tall enough to be a total PITA when it comes to forecasting. And also, I got that insight one day after I talked to my older brother after he drove to and from Tobyhanna and reported as such when he ascended from Nanticoke to I-81 to I-380 and the sleet/snow to freezing rain/rain change happened near Gouldsboro on i-380. Checked an analysis model sounding after the fact, and that actually confirmed that thought.

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I saw this WPC snow map recently posted in another forum tonight.

 

How were 18z GFS ensembles snow wise? I love Accupro's expanded stuff with model data but their ensemble section leaves a lot to be desired. At any rate it looked like it was a bit colder vs the means at 12z.

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9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

How were 18z GFS ensembles snow wise? I love Accupro's expanded stuff with model data but their ensemble section leaves a lot to be desired. At any rate it looked like it was a bit colder vs the means at 12z.

Here is the 18z GEFS. It was a slight improvement in the snow department vs. the 12z GEFS. 

CA11A0CB-4423-4BFC-ACCD-FDDA79A01A1C.png

D8D1918D-215E-4247-885B-CC555BB80620.png

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That sounds very good...

It sure is. I don't split hairs or isobars with pointing out very subtle run to run shifts. This is a pretty big shift back in the right direction with the mix line running the far southern tier under the turnpike but getting no further north in the LSV. 

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2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

DT just put out his Farmville Snow Hole Woof Aleet Big Dog First Guess Second Call Last Update. And it says Fcku your mother.

Remember the meltdown he had a few years ago when it looked for days on end like Richmond was going to get 2' of snow...and at the last minute the storm came much farther north and they changed to sleet after 4'? He had a complete meltdown for the ages that would have made any weenie proud. 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It sure is. I don't split hairs or isobars with pointing out very subtle run to run shifts. This is a pretty big shift back in the right direction with the mix line running the far southern tier under the turnpike but getting no further north in the LSV. 

Thanks MAG. Off to an encouraging start with the 0z suite. 

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