Central PA - Winter 2018-19

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I don’t take your posts as negative at all. 

@Itstrainingtime +1. 

I think you misread what he was implying. Your posts are just fine, good or bad. Right now is bad, no way to hide it, but it’s also bold to go so far out and cancel the month when there surely is a consensus that telleconections/indices look to progress to better phases. I think that’s the “argument” that’s being made. Horst is a great and well respected met and is entitled to his call. No one would argue that.  

[MAG5035]

19 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks and happy New Years!!!  I should post up here more, but I guess since I lived in the DC area so long during the early years of the weather boards...once I moved back to northern MD I gravitated back there.  Also there is usually more activity down there in that forum (mostly because of the greater population in that area I would suspect) during non storm threat periods.  But I will try to pop in up here more often, I certainly enjoyed my time in this forum back in 2013-14. 

I have been calling for a flip to a colder pattern sometime mid to late January and I still feel confident in that.  A lot of the analogs that had somewhat similar features to this year...1958, 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987, 2005, 2007, 2015... featured a pretty craptastic mid Dec to mid Jan.  Then sometime between Jan 15 and early Feb they all flipped.  Some ended up epic, others simply respectable but they all got colder and snowier the second half. 

As for why its been so awful lately and when the flip comes I really do think the mjo has been in the drivers seat.  It makes too much sense.  Most of the time the obvious answer is the correct one.  The pattern really flipped on a dime when the mjo decided to go ape into the warm phases.  And looking at an mjo correlations map the actual pattern the last couple weeks, and the projected one next week, look so closely like the expected mjo phases that its too much to think it's a coincidence.   Add in that the mjo has been at near record amplitudes for the time of year and nino and its hard to ignore it as a driving influence. 

The soi being in nina territory is also not helping.  I think there is likely a connection between the soi and the mjo.  There is a correlation with the soi spiking during strong phases 3-6 and also a correlation with a muted mjo during el ninos.  I don't know which is the chicken or the egg there but there is some linkage.  There is also a correlation with the mjo into warm phases and the initiation of a SSWE so all that seems to be cascading to bring on this pattern and mute the nino background state.  The end result being the increased tropical convection in the east Indian Ocean and north of Australia is derailing and running interference with the formation of a nino pacific pattern or the atmospheric coupling with the sst patterns.  In essence we are in a strong la nina pacific firehose pattern despite the sst. 

However, I am not overly concerned yet for the rest of winter.  All of the seasonal and sub seasonal guidance (other then the cfs which I largely ignore) keeps trying to go to the exact same look.  The euro weeklies, euro seasonal, ukmet seasonal, JMA weeklies...all look the same.  But as the pattern approaches they back off and delay.  Tonight's weeklies again go to the great look but pushed it back a week again.  Why?  The most logical explanation is the mjo again.  The guidance is seeing the sst and other factors that indicate what the base state should be...and its the exact same look supported by the analogs I identified earlier and the sst pattern.  Take Joe D's Pioneer model.  I know wxbell is biased but that model is really just a sst analog output and it looks identical to the pattern the long range guidance keeps wanting to go to.  But analogs aren't perfect.  They don't take into account changing conditions and all factors, and the oceans SST arent the only pattern driver.  They are by far the most significant one but at times other things can influence the pattern one way or another.  

But we know the guidance struggles with the mjo at range.  So it seems highly likely given that when the mjo went berserk is when things went wrong, and the pattern keeps matching up with the mjo phases perfectly, that the long range guidance is simply failing to properly account for the current mjo and soi incongruousness with the nino sst.  So long as the soi and mjo remain in warm phases it is likely the pattern changes in the long range guidance is wrong.  BUT...there is historical evidence that a strong soi spike during a nino in December is typically followed by a crash in January.  It would also be almost unheard of for the mjo to spend an entire winter cycling through phases 3-6.  Sooner or later both of those factors are likely to flip.  At the very least the mjo is likely to become less amplified at some point and the soi is likely to drop, it might be now as today entered negative territory after a recent spike.  So I do think once those two things sort themselves out the good look being teased by the long range guidance is finally going to become a reality. 

Of course that still doesn't guaruntee a specific location a great result.  All of those years I listed above gave SOMEWHERE in the east a great second half snow wise.  But not everyone.  1987 targeted the DC to Philly area.  2007 nailed further north.  2005 was a new england special.  But every one of those years turned colder and somewhere got a snow blitz.  Discreet details within the pattern that are impossible to infer at range will determine the fate of a specific location in regards to snowfall.  Snowfall is incredibly fluky in general.  Its a relatively minor areal coverage that gets significant snow with any synoptic event.  When you are missing by 500 miles its a bad pattern.  When you are missing by 50 miles it's more often bad luck.  But get the pattern right and we all stand a chance...then its up to luck who ends up with a great finish and who simply had a respectable one. 

It's been crap lately, and the frustration is legit but I still am optimistic things flip within the next month and we have some good times ahead.  If I fail because of something unprecedented like an MJO wave that cycles around in warm phases all darn winter or an SOI that stays in nina territory all through a nino winter so be it, but I find that unlikely.  So far this hasn't been that out of line with the analogs and until I see evidence this has gone wrong I will have faith in the evidence I listed above for a pattern change coming relatively soon. 

Happy New Years and hopefully a snowy one. 

 

I'm not an expert on the MJO by any means but Ive tried to understand its workings better and I've learned that trying to apply it to our sensible weather in our part of the country can be frustratingly difficult. Especially so when I really started to look at things. After I managed to find a source with archived MJO data, I spent some time last night after seeing your post with the analogs you laid out. It's not the first time i've heard about some of those years. 78 has come up a good bit as an analog to this potential flip. I expected to see a move to favorable phases earlier in Jan of 1978 and the classic 8-1-2 pulse or recircle to match up at least somewhat well with the major last half of Jan-mid Feb blitz. The archive data surprised me. 

New England's Blizzard of '78 (the most well known of the two '78 blizzards) occurred Feb 5-7 as MJO was progressing back from 7-8 and the previous weeks massive 955mb lakes cutter that was the Great Lakes/OH Valley Blizzard of 78 was only over a week before Jan 25-27th while the MJO was progressing from 4-5. And just before that, on the 20-21st was another very major snowstorm that struck the whole Northeast (phase 4). Now MJO typically has some lag in it's effect in the mid latitudes, but either way it's really evident to me that it probably wasn't the number 1 driver in the pattern that caused the craziness of that particular period. A major blocking pattern (esp NAO region) was. Just looking up the stuff to make a post about this particular winter (I wasn't alive then) it's incredible how much of a blitz there was of storms in that few week period. It's similar to 2010's. 

https://www.weather.gov/media/box/science/Blizzard_of_1978.pdf

One of the more recent analogs, 2007 didn't really have much MJO influence when things turned good later in the winter, only creeping into very low magnitude 1-2 in mid Feb, but it largely stayed on the right side of the diagram just about the whole winter. There was a more sizable run through 4-6 in late Dec-early Jan but the entire winter overall was spectacularly dead on arrival until mid Jan in the east. Also, March was an active up and down month but did feature a couple late nor'easters that delivered significant snowstorms in especially the interior Mid-All/NE and look where the MJO was. 

2007:

 

2015 didn't have much of an MJO connection either, but that was a winter I knew that it didn't because of the incredibly persistent and significant +PNA/-EPO pattern that kept us in the freezer regardless of what the other teleconnections were doing. That winter didn't feature much southern jet, and was more northern jet dominated despite weak El Nino conditions.. lending to less major impacting snowstorms in the region. There was a point it spiked into 5-6 in January but we stayed in largely a colder pattern due to the aforementioned Pac pattern. 

 

So.. I've always approached this teleconnection by utilizing it as PART of the big picture but I was really surprised at the lack of connection/continuity to any of these analogs and actually just in general as I've looked a few other winters including some of the bad ones (including the infamous 01-02 "vodka cold" massacre). Like I wasn't expecting a smoking gun by any means but I expected to see some of these infamous wintry periods match up better. So fast forward to now, I do think the MJO in its unfavorable phasing does have a lot of influence currently... because we don't have a dominant state in the PNA or NAO realms. They're actually okay right now for the most part. But I'm talking an actual established blocking pattern whether good or bad for us. Our pattern has been progressive and I think the MJO phase state right now is aligning our storm track the wrong way in the absence of high latitude blocking. It sucks because I personally think we've had the best southern jet I've seen in years for sure. But we've seen very little connection with the northern jet thus far, which has kept a lot of the real cold air away. That's going to start eating into averages in interior locations that see more snowfall from clipper type systems, LES and upslope from cold NW flow, etc until we change. I'd be careful with the big hitter analogs right now, especially the likes of the '78 one. I can see the potential of this winter to get a period like that, but it's probably going to involve more than the MJO going into 8-1-2... although a good MJO pulse moving through those could help set up some blocking too. Additionally, the ongoing SSW event could help shuffle the pattern in that regard too. One thing's for sure, I'm ready to see something other than rain. 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm not an expert on the MJO by any means but Ive tried to understand its workings better and I've learned that trying to apply it to our sensible weather in our part of the country can be frustratingly difficult. Especially so when I really started to look at things. After I managed to find a source with archived MJO data, I spent some time last night after seeing your post with the analogs you laid out. It's not the first time i've heard about some of those years. 78 has come up a good bit as an analog to this potential flip. I expected to see a move to favorable phases earlier in Jan of 1978 and the classic 8-1-2 pulse or recircle to match up at least somewhat well with the major last half of Jan-mid Feb blitz. The archive data surprised me. 

New England's Blizzard of '78 (the most well known of the two '78 blizzards) occurred Feb 5-7 as MJO was progressing back from 7-8 and the previous weeks massive 955mb lakes cutter that was the Great Lakes/OH Valley Blizzard of 78 was only over a week before Jan 25-27th while the MJO was progressing from 4-5. And just before that, on the 20-21st was another very major snowstorm that struck the whole Northeast (phase 4). Now MJO typically has some lag in it's effect in the mid latitudes, but either way it's really evident to me that it probably wasn't the number 1 driver in the pattern that caused the craziness of that particular period. A major blocking pattern (esp NAO region) was. Just looking up the stuff to make a post about this particular winter (I wasn't alive then) it's incredible how much of a blitz there was of storms in that few week period. It's similar to 2010's. 

https://www.weather.gov/media/box/science/Blizzard_of_1978.pdf

One of the more recent analogs, 2007 didn't really have much MJO influence when things turned good later in the winter, only creeping into very low magnitude 1-2 in mid Feb, but it largely stayed on the right side of the diagram just about the whole winter. There was a more sizable run through 4-6 in late Dec-early Jan but the entire winter overall was spectacularly dead on arrival until mid Jan in the east. Also, March was an active up and down month but did feature a couple late nor'easters that delivered significant snowstorms in especially the interior Mid-All/NE and look where the MJO was. 

2007:

 

2015 didn't have much of an MJO connection either, but that was a winter I knew that it didn't because of the incredibly persistent and significant +PNA/-EPO pattern that kept us in the freezer regardless of what the other teleconnections were doing. That winter didn't feature much southern jet, and was more northern jet dominated despite weak El Nino conditions.. lending to less major impacting snowstorms in the region. There was a point it spiked into 5-6 in January but we stayed in largely a colder pattern due to the aforementioned Pac pattern. 

 

So.. I've always approached this teleconnection by utilizing it as PART of the big picture but I was really surprised at the lack of connection/continuity to any of these analogs and actually just in general as I've looked a few other winters including some of the bad ones (including the infamous 01-02 "vodka cold" massacre). Like I wasn't expecting a smoking gun by any means but I expected to see some of these infamous wintry periods match up better. So fast forward to now, I do think the MJO in its unfavorable phasing does have a lot of influence currently... because we don't have a dominant state in the PNA or NAO realms. They're actually okay right now for the most part. But I'm talking an actual established blocking pattern whether good or bad for us. Our pattern has been progressive and I think the MJO phase state right now is aligning our storm track the wrong way in the absence of high latitude blocking. It sucks because I personally think we've had the best southern jet I've seen in years for sure. But we've seen very little connection with the northern jet thus far, which has kept a lot of the real cold air away. That's going to start eating into averages in interior locations that see more snowfall from clipper type systems, LES and upslope from cold NW flow, etc until we change. I'd be careful with the big hitter analogs right now, especially the likes of the '78 one. I can see the potential of this winter to get a period like that, but it's probably going to involve more than the MJO going into 8-1-2... although a good MJO pulse moving through those could help set up some blocking too. Additionally, the ongoing SSW event could help shuffle the pattern in that regard too. One thing's for sure, I'm ready to see something other than rain. 

 

I didn't mean to imply I thought the MJO was a major reason for the good or bad patterns in those analog years but I see how it came off that way.  I do think the MJO is a major part of the culprit this year.  And I am not sure how much help per say a run through the cold phases would be, it cant hurt, but I am hopeful that just getting the tropical forcing out locations that amplify the pacific jet and place a ridge in the central pacific which continues to send a train of troughs crashing into the west coast flooding the CONUS with pacific puke airmass will help solve a lot of our problems.  The NAO actually hasn't been hostile with a few minor negative forays but it hasn't been a strong enough blocking regime to overcome such a crap pacific pattern.  If we can get that forcing east, or even just to let up and allow a more typical modoki nino forcing pattern to establish we should move towards the epo ridge pattern we were expecting.  The fact that guidance keeps wanting to go to that in the long ranges makes me think there is something to that being the natural base state absent the mjo interference. 

The reason why the mjo might be having more of an influence this year than in those nino analogs is the soi.  So I guess its not JUST the mjo but a combo of the MJO and SOI acting in conjunction.  I am no expert in the MJO either but in trying to learn more and be able to incorporate it a bit more into long range "guesses" the last few years I have read some stuff that indicates there is a linkage between the soi and impacts from the MJO.  When we are in a nino base state the mjo tends to be muted.  Both in amplitude but also in its correlation and impact on the pattern.  Furthermore, some of the "warm" phases arent actually so warm in a nino.  Depending on the specific phase and month some of the typically warm phases look cold if you only look at their correlation during nino years.  Just theorizing out loud here but my guess is that is not a function of the MJO forcing in those locations actually causing cold in a nino, but a combination of there being limited sample sizes once we start using only nino years and with the mjo being muted if you get a few nino years where the nino base state overwhelmed the mjo and it was really cold you will get a cold signal for that month.  So I don't think the MJO causes a cold look in phase 5 for instance in a nino but that the mjo does less to harm the pattern in a nino in phase 5 and so the typical nino base state isnt altered enough normally to change the pattern.  But the soi this year has been in a nina base state.  The atmosphere has yet to couple with the SSTs.  So we have had a more nina reaction to those mjo phases then a nino one.  I suspect most of those nino analogs the soi wasn't in a such a positive/nina state (since I saw this was a record for the soi in a December with a nino ONI) so the mjo wouldn't have had the same impact on those years as this one.

Someone posted a while ago that in nino years with a SOI spike during December it was always followed by a crash in January.  So I am also operating under the assumption that the SOI will likely enter nino territory soon.  It may be now as we finally had a couple days in negative territory, but it's too soon to know if that is a permanent trend.  But assuming the soi does drop hopefully that would also favor a more nino base state establishing.  That might mute the mjo and cause the wave to decrease in amplitude but that might not be a bad thing.  Again I am not counting on the MJO to save us, I just want to get it to stop killing us.  If the SOI drops and the atmosphere couples with the nino SST then we don't need MJO help imo just get it out of the way so the forcing in the central pacific from the nino takes over and establishes the more central based nino typical Aleutian trough, epo ridge pattern. 

I think the guidance is starting to pick up on this now.  The GEFS might be rushing it but both the GEFS and EPS are doing the same thing, only the GEFS is doing it 5/6 days faster.  They shift the forcing east which pushes the central pacific ridge east and starts to split the trough off the west coast then builds into a epo ridge.  That flips the whole pattern after.  The EPS weeklies did that day 17 and now today on the 12z EPS you can see the inception of that process the last 24 hours.  The ridge that has been hanging out in the central pacific moves east and starts to build south of Alaska and if the run went out another day we would probably see the trough there get split and the epo ridge start to go up. 

I think this is likely where we are heading but the issue is timing.  And the longer we wait and lose prime climo the harder it will be to save a good winter even if the pattern does improve unless we get lucky with some kind of epic run.  But the sooner it shifts the better.  My guess is the GEFS might be rushing things a bit and perhaps the EPS timing is better.  But the EPS has been sucking on the MJO for a long time now, and the GEFS was actually beating the EPS in the long range on verification scores recently so perhaps this might be a rare American win in the model wars.  Either way hopefully we start to see that look move forward in time on all guidance. 

I don't know any of this for sure.  I am just speculating.  There could be another cause here that I am not factoring in or missing completely.  But that is just my best guess at what has been driving the pattern lately and where we might be heading.  But long range forecasting is low probability and I am no expert so take all that with a grain of salt.  Happy New Year and hopefully we have some real threats to track soon and not just uber long range ghosts and extrapolations of day 15 ensemble patterns. 

[psuhoffman]

@MAG5035 one other thing...imo its not so much the storm track but the total evacuation of cold over the CONUS by the pacific jet blasting into the west coast.  We have had several darn near perfect H5 passes over the past few weeks that have yielded nothing but heavy cold rain because the antecedent air mass was wrecked.  We have another such event coming up.  Yea there have been some cutters too but that happens in almost every pattern even a good year.  2010 there was a big rainstorm that wiped out my snowpack xmas night.  Another big cutter in January.  78 had the famous ohio valley blizzard.  Plus some of those cutters...given the h5 track, likely wouldn't have cut at the surface if there was a cold airmass in place ahead of the storm.  Because the thermal boundary was so far northwest the surface systems tracked well west of what would be typical given their upper air patterns.  If we could just get some cold, any cold, we should do very well given the recurring storm track since about mid fall. 

[MAG5035]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@MAG5035 one other thing...imo its not so much the storm track but the total evacuation of cold over the CONUS by the pacific jet blasting into the west coast.  We have had several darn near perfect H5 passes over the past few weeks that have yielded nothing but heavy cold rain because the antecedent air mass was wrecked.  We have another such event coming up.  Yea there have been some cutters too but that happens in almost every pattern even a good year.  2010 there was a big rainstorm that wiped out my snowpack xmas night.  Another big cutter in January.  78 had the famous ohio valley blizzard.  Plus some of those cutters...given the h5 track, likely wouldn't have cut at the surface if there was a cold airmass in place ahead of the storm.  Because the thermal boundary was so far northwest the surface systems tracked well west of what would be typical given their upper air patterns.  If we could just get some cold, any cold, we should do very well given the recurring storm track since about mid fall. 

Nah I didn't think you were suggesting that about the MJO in the analog years, I thought you had a great post. It was just something I was looking into and was kind of surprised by the results. That archived data goes back to 1975, and it actually is hard to find an MJO pulse with a stronger magnitude like the current one through those phases. Mid Feb '85 about left the chart in phase 4-5 (84-85 was a weak to moderate nina). Jan '86 (borderline weak nino), Jan & Mar '90 (neutral), and Feb '94 surprisingly enough (neutral) were a few other examples. So I think these weaker ENSO episodes can be a bit of a tossup. We're running nino conditions but it's not overly strong, and OND would be only the 2nd consecutive 3 month average with nino conditions. You need 5 consecutive to actually confirm a full blown nino episode.  

Now on the SOI. The SOI is a index derived from the pressure difference between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti in the middle of the western Pacific. It's more of a longer term index (using a 30 day, monthly and 90 day average) but daily values are calculated to pick up on trends. And we can see the latter part of the month the 30 day average cracked into Nina territory (value of more than +7). The 90 day average has not. The more positive SOI through most of December could possibly be indicative of the MJO pulse itself as those 4-6 phases coincide with that region. +SOI values come from Darwin having lower pressures as compared to Tahiti. So theoretically there's some support for a reversal of this trend as the MJO pulse is progged to progress to 6-7. I had to go to the Aussies to get a good source for SOI data since a lot of American stuff isn't available right now, specifically from the National Climatic Data Center due to our Gov't shutdown. Site is HERE. I put up a screenshot, and you'll note the last two days of daily values have had negative values. Beginning of that SOI crash in Jan trend? Potentially. 

 

So onto our pattern here in the US. I do agree about the next storm coming up track-wise. 500 low and surface low track should say snow event for the Mid-Atlantic. Evacuated cold will ensure a different result. I didn't think we've really had an all out flooding of Pac air across the lower 48 til this period coming up in the short-mid range. I know your region further south has probably been a different story (milder) but up here it hadn't been particularly warm. It was seasonably chilly or perhaps a few ticks above until we've had the last couple cutters approach. Temps rise in response to the storm going west and go back to chilly. But yea either way we haven't had an actual real cold antecedent mass to work with. As I mentioned previously, the northern branch has not been very involved, staying north mostly and keeping actual cold air excursions to the north or brief when they do dive down. On the other hand it hasn't been a full blown eastern ridge and torch, but theres been enough southeast ridging and low heights in the Pac and west to send the last few storms to the Lakes. The pattern is quite progressive... we don't seem to be locked into any major feature good or bad but we keep coming up on the wrong side of things. It's been a weird thing the last month or so. It's like a progressive Nina with an active Nino southern stream. I do remain confident that we will straighten things out within the next few weeks I just hope that we don't throw the majority of Jan away. 

[pasnownut]

10 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Nah I didn't think you were suggesting that about the MJO in the analog years, I thought you had a great post. It was just something I was looking into and was kind of surprised by the results. That archived data goes back to 1975, and it actually is hard to find an MJO pulse with a stronger magnitude like the current one through those phases. Mid Feb '85 about left the chart in phase 4-5 (84-85 was a weak to moderate nina). Jan '86 (borderline weak nino), Jan & Mar '90 (neutral), and Feb '94 surprisingly enough (neutral) were a few other examples. So I think these weaker ENSO episodes can be a bit of a tossup. We're running nino conditions but it's not overly strong, and OND would be only the 2nd consecutive 3 month average with nino conditions. You need 5 consecutive to actually confirm a full blown nino episode.  

Now on the SOI. The SOI is a index derived from the pressure difference between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti in the middle of the western Pacific. It's more of a longer term index (using a 30 day, monthly and 90 day average) but daily values are calculated to pick up on trends. And we can see the latter part of the month the 30 day average cracked into Nina territory (value of more than +7). The 90 day average has not. The more positive SOI through most of December could possibly be indicative of the MJO pulse itself as those 4-6 phases coincide with that region. +SOI values come from Darwin having lower pressures as compared to Tahiti. So theoretically there's some support for a reversal of this trend as the MJO pulse is progged to progress to 6-7. I had to go to the Aussies to get a good source for SOI data since a lot of American stuff isn't available right now, specifically from the National Climatic Data Center due to our Gov't shutdown. Site is HERE. I put up a screenshot, and you'll note the last two days of daily values have had negative values. Beginning of that SOI crash in Jan trend? Potentially. 

 

So onto our pattern here in the US. I do agree about the next storm coming up track-wise. 500 low and surface low track should say snow event for the Mid-Atlantic. Evacuated cold will ensure a different result. I didn't think we've really had an all out flooding of Pac air across the lower 48 til this period coming up in the short-mid range. I know your region further south has probably been a different story (milder) but up here it hadn't been particularly warm. It was seasonably chilly or perhaps a few ticks above until we've had the last couple cutters approach. Temps rise in response to the storm going west and go back to chilly. But yea either way we haven't had an actual real cold antecedent mass to work with. As I mentioned previously, the northern branch has not been very involved, staying north mostly and keeping actual cold air excursions to the north or brief when they do dive down. On the other hand it hasn't been a full blown eastern ridge and torch, but theres been enough southeast ridging and low heights in the Pac and west to send the last few storms to the Lakes. The pattern is quite progressive... we don't seem to be locked into any major feature good or bad but we keep coming up on the wrong side of things. It's been a weird thing the last month or so. It's like a progressive Nina with an active Nino southern stream. I do remain confident that we will straighten things out within the next few weeks I just hope that we don't throw the majority of Jan away. 

Thanks as always Mag.  Glad to see your not punting Jan.  Seeing the SOI finally neg and MJO into 7 hopefully is the start of better times for us as they both are less hostile for delivering the winter goods.  Would be nice to see high amplitude 8 w/ the MJO, and then it can do all the loops it wants once there, but thats wishcasting.  As you said, we just need the cold to reload and once things get right (assuming they continue to evolve as we've all been seeing), then we could be in for a fun period like many have been expecting.  Seeing the NAO showing signs of showing up is also good.  Wondering if the SSW is finally having an effect on what the progression is?  its a thought that I've expressed in the other forum.  Most just dismiss it as voodo.  I think there is a correlation, but thats from a rather limited view.  Just makes logical sense.  And furthermore, I've read that the Strato will be peturbed for much of the winter, so that could also lead to other fun periods as the cold will be "around".

Looking forward to the board coming out of hibernation.

 

[Santa Clause]

I'm in hibernation because you guys are all far more intelligent on weather in general lol. I know I like to look at models and thermal profiles, but patterns... forget about it lol. Think sauss and I are watch it snow with a beer and tunes kinda guys and enjoy the event part of it...though I could be wrong on Mr. Saussaman lol.

[Voyager]

Your cold air is out in Flagstaff, AZ where I'm spending the night tonight. Currently +5 degrees here...

[MAG5035]

8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Your cold air is out in Flagstaff, AZ where I'm spending the night tonight. Currently +5 degrees here...

Lol, gotta love radiational cooling at around 7k feet. It's showing up nicely on the IR. Since it's clear, the cold mountains are showing up nicely and Flagstaff area is matching nicely with ground obs (IR showing -15 to -20ºC range). Might have to watch for unsettled weather and relatively low snow levels if your still in the Four Corners region over the weekend. 

 

[Voyager]

25 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol, gotta love radiational cooling at around 7k feet. It's showing up nicely on the IR. Since it's clear, the cold mountains are showing up nicely and Flagstaff area is matching nicely with ground obs (IR showing -15 to -20ºC range). Might have to watch for unsettled weather and relatively low snow levels if your still in the Four Corners region over the weekend. 

 

Snow levels have been crazy low since this past weekend. I hit snow in El Paso on Saturday morning, and yesterday Tucson had a half inch at the airport. I'm actually heading back east in the big truck. I'll be hot on the heels of the Oklahoma storm Friday morning.

[sauss06]

13 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

I'm in hibernation because you guys are all far more intelligent on weather in general lol. I know I like to look at models and thermal profiles, but patterns... forget about it lol. Think sauss and I are watch it snow with a beer and tunes kinda guys and enjoy the event part of it...though I could be wrong on Mr. Saussaman lol.

Most definitely.  I know little................................very little. 

January 11-12?

 

[Superstorm]

Horst is one of best when looking at long range patterns, and he has been sticking with “real” winter starting Feb. 1.


.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Horst is one of best when looking at long range patterns, and he has been sticking with “real” winter starting Feb. 1.


.

He reiterated as such today. Thanks for posting that. He also once again reminded everyone how unreliable long range models often are.

There "might" be a couple of brushes with winter later in January, snow lovers will need to wait until February for an actual wintery pattern.

[Itstrainingtime]

I appreciate those of you who do not perceive me as negative. In the past I have been one of the most active cheerleaders for winter storms...when the pattern supported it. However, we have been in a lousy pattern, we are in a lousy pattern and we look to stay in a less than a lousy pattern for potentially a couple more weeks. I'm not going to get falsely excited when the reality is there is nothing to be excited about. When the pattern looks at least somewhat conducive to winter weather I will say so and jump aboard. Until then...

Carry on.

[canderson]

Until cold air breaks into middle New York, winter is dead. 

[pasnownut]

42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I appreciate those of you who do not perceive me as negative. In the past I have been one of the most active cheerleaders for winter storms...when the pattern supported it. However, we have been in a lousy pattern, we are in a lousy pattern and we look to stay in a less than a lousy pattern for potentially a couple more weeks. I'm not going to get falsely excited when the reality is there is nothing to be excited about. When the pattern looks at least somewhat conducive to winter weather I will say so and jump aboard. Until then...

Carry on.

Hell...i dont even think we've met....so i dont have a clue to what your past was....

Its all good.  Pattern sucks right now.  No sugarcoatin sh!t. 

Base state is showing sings of movement, so lets see what the new regime (MJO/SOI) and maybe a little voodo help from the SSW and see where this thing goes.

This is a discussion board and not everything we see is good.  Beer helps to smooth out the rough spots!  Ask John (Sauss)

 

 

[pasnownut]

While we wait....a couple pics to ponder (and keep hope alive for the downtrodden)

[pasnownut]

and here's hoping the inner snow weenie still has a coming out party this winter......lol

[pasnownut]

and thats only through mid Feb.  Technically we can still score for another monthish beyond #paddintotalsoreatincrow

[Voyager]

29 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and here's hoping the inner snow weenie still has a coming out party this winter......lol

Very few places where I can enjoy trucking if that map verifies...

[Itstrainingtime]

Here's an excerpt from  what Horst had to say this afternoon:

Here in the Mid-Atlantic, however, a pattern so wholly owned by the Pacific jet--and devoid of blocking--is a tough thing for snow lovers and skiers. Glancing shots of cold air can make for some accumulating snows in places north of the I-80 corridor, but farther south the shallow cold pushes are so easily routed out that mild rain events are the norm. And this, my friends, is the pattern I see continuing into mid-month...and perhaps even into late month. (Yes, it can snow here in a mild pattern like this...but everything needs to line up just right, so it's a long shot...and it wouldn't last anyway.)

For weeks now, I've been hearing rumors of a "dramatic shift to cold, snowy conditions" in the big cities of the East--but these rumors are fueled by nothing more than very unreliable long range computer models. Of course, the frigid air hasn't arrived yet...and won't...for a couple/few more weeks. We need a wholesale shift in the upper-level pattern across the Arctic to make for a sustained southward push of frigid air. While we may actually observer (in reality, not in models) this process begin over the next week or two, for it to come to fruition here (in terms of sustain cold and significant snow) typically takes another week or two beyond that. So, while I'm not ruling out some brushes with winter here in the second half of January, I believe snow lovers' hopes for a significant spell of wintry conditions will hinge on the period from February 1st to March 15th. --Horst

[Voyager]

Great, another backloaded winter...

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

and thats only through mid Feb.  Technically we can still score for another monthish beyond #paddintotalsoreatincrow

The Euro weeklies look fantastic again as we head towards January 20th & beyond. From that point until the end of the run in mid February, the winter pattern is locked in & would continue beyond.

Here is a close up of the Euro weeklies Control map just for fun!

Let’s do this !

 

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

Great, another backloaded winter...

They’re all backloaded now it seems. December and January are the new October. 

[MAG5035]

I think we may... MAY have seen the crest of this flood of Pac air and endless futility in the longer range as interpreted by the models. The run cycle today (Thursday) and the overnight 0z runs have to seemed to turn a bit of a corner with trying to reintroduce winter to our part of the world, esp the 7-10 day range. Not saying it's the most glorious looking thing right now. But we're suddenly looking at a situation in the Mon night-Tues timeframe (D4-5) where we have a Great Lakes system pressing a moderately strong retreating high passing to our north and making a possible mix scenario. There was also some very general agreement on some kind of system and some actual cold near D8-10. Tonight's Euro tried to throw another perfectly tracked moisture laden system but didn't have cold air to make other than maybe the interior central snowy. Those finer details don't matter too much at that range but I did see the models trying to reshuffle some high latitude blocking above us and downstream to more of a west based look, which is what we could certainly use without a major favorable Pac feature (namely a solid +PNA ridge). Actually just about any Canadian high heights would do right now, we can work this active Pac pattern if we can just bring the cold air down.

I think the models are finally going to start being able to handle when this change is going to occur instead of just pushing it back. The catalysts for potential pattern change are starting to show themselves. In the tropical forcing realm there's now a much more decided shift in the MJO to where modeling rapidly takes the MJO pulse right through 6 to 7. Euro goes right to 8 while the GFS/GEFS continued to hold onto this "circle the drain" type deal, although now it's getting deep into phase 7 now. Either way it's noteworthy that after spending a record amount of time working 4-5, it's in motion. 

Also the SOI's daily contribution has really made a rapid reversal to negative values the last several days now, which probably is in part due to the MJO activity shifting towards 6-7 (West Pac).

 

I was really starting to personally be concerned about losing all of January the way things had been looking the last couple days in the long range even though I remained somewhat patient that we would round some kind of corner soon to hone in on when this much needed pattern change might start growing some legs. Salvaging the last half of the month in our region is still doable IMO. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I think we may... MAY have seen the crest of this flood of Pac air and endless futility in the longer range as interpreted by the models. The run cycle today (Thursday) and the overnight 0z runs have to seemed to turn a bit of a corner with trying to reintroduce winter to our part of the world, esp the 7-10 day range. Not saying it's the most glorious looking thing right now. But we're suddenly looking at a situation in the Mon night-Tues timeframe (D4-5) where we have a Great Lakes system pressing a moderately strong retreating high passing to our north and making a possible mix scenario. There was also some very general agreement on some kind of system and some actual cold near D8-10. Tonight's Euro tried to throw another perfectly tracked moisture laden system but didn't have cold air to make other than maybe the interior central snowy. Those finer details don't matter too much at that range but I did see the models trying to reshuffle some high latitude blocking above us and downstream to more of a west based look, which is what we could certainly use without a major favorable Pac feature (namely a solid +PNA ridge). Actually just about any Canadian high heights would do right now, we can work this active Pac pattern if we can just bring the cold air down.

I think the models are finally going to start being able to handle when this change is going to occur instead of just pushing it back. The catalysts for potential pattern change are starting to show themselves. In the tropical forcing realm there's now a much more decided shift in the MJO to where modeling rapidly takes the MJO pulse right through 6 to 7. Euro goes right to 8 while the GFS/GEFS continued to hold onto this "circle the drain" type deal, although now it's getting deep into phase 7 now. Either way it's noteworthy that after spending a record amount of time working 4-5, it's in motion. 

Also the SOI's daily contribution has really made a rapid reversal to negative values the last several days now, which probably is in part due to the MJO activity shifting towards 6-7 (West Pac).

 

I was really starting to personally be concerned about losing all of January the way things had been looking the last couple days in the long range even though I remained somewhat patient that we would round some kind of corner soon to hone in on when this much needed pattern change might start growing some legs. Salvaging the last half of the month in our region is still doable IMO. 

Great write up MAG. Man...I sure hope you're right...

[sauss06]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

They’re all backloaded now it seems. December and January are the new October. 

I just said the same on New years eve, fall runs till January now.

I'm glad its going to rain Friday night into Saturday, the mud is starting to dry up. 

[Itstrainingtime]

41 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I just said the same on New years eve, fall runs till January now.

I'm glad its going to rain Friday night into Saturday, the mud is starting to dry up. 

Hopefully we get a good soaking...we're not looking at any more rain until Monday night.

[anotherman]

The worst part is looking at where the Low will be.  Perfect placement for LSV snow.  Damn.

[paweather]

We need winter weather bad LOL....this thread. :-) Again, early snow just like 2011 caused us doom back then just like now. Plenty of time left.