pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, JTrout said: Mid Atlantic forum is crickets(compared to storm mode times) for a big storm incoming, obviously because it looks like a pure soaker for them. LSV folks could be next....... they were never really in this one, so crickets is sorta expected. In case you are new here, they dont root on northern snow - or any snow for anyone outside of their village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Regardless of snowfall it would seem like I'm in one of the prime freezing rain accumulation areas. But all the maps seem to show way too much. NWS forecast for 0.10" while others upwards of over 0.5". Big difference there. These depictions of LP's driving into SW PA will really cut down the freezing rain fear for most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: they were never really in this one, so crickets is sorta expected. In case you are new here, they dont root on northern snow - or any snow for anyone outside of their village. That they don't. They could be sitting on 40" and UNV at 5" and yet somehow if UNV got hit they'd be pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah trend is ugly today. UKMET was consistent every run and just did a big jump. The storm picked up speed and is able to go more north. I see this trending north this evening. My early call is I80 north snow below mixing. Turnpike south mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, paweather5 said: Yeah trend is ugly today. UKMET was consistent every run and just did a big jump. The storm picked up speed and is able to go more north. I see this trending north this evening. It would be a shock if the Euro is anything other than a brief period of snow and sleet into flooding rains. Game is not over...still 48 hours but today is not going to be good it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, paweather5 said: I guess it depends how that L got to that spot. Icon has it in that general area too....good front thump on that model. GFS, CMC get it there too....not a good result for most. NAM kinda in between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: It would be a shock if the Euro is anything other than a brief period of snow and sleet into flooding rains. Game is not over...still 48 hours but today is not going to be good it appears. Fv3 came SE. Still ugly, but less for sure. Go take a peek. Enough that I'm able to head out and still have hope while traveling this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, JTrout said: I guess it depends how that L got to that spot. Icon has it in that general area too....good front thump on that model. GFS, CMC get it there too....not a good result for most. NAM kinda in between them. The trajectory is from the SW vs. going under PA. Allows more time for southerly wind to scour our column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: The trajectory is form the SW vs. going under PA. Allows more time for southerly wind to scour our column. Yeah rain all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Fv3 came SE. Still ugly, but less for sure. Go take a peek. Enough that I'm able to head out and still have hope while traveling this afternoon. Thanks I did peek at it. If we had true arctic air to work with we would be in a much better position but with our fairly mild air we cannot survive a southerly wind the whole time a storm climbs to our latitude. We need the transfer to lessen the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So it's going to rain all day Sunday, then be 4 f'n degrees Monday and Tuesday, then rain again Thursday and Friday. We're living the dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: So it's going to rain all day Sunday, then be 4 f'n degrees Monday and Tuesday, then rain again Thursday and Friday. We're living the dream. Seems to me that this is a Saturday and Saturday night event with the faster depictions. A little left over rain or snow flakes as the cold comes in Sunday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: they were never really in this one, so crickets is sorta expected. In case you are new here, they dont root on northern snow - or any snow for anyone outside of their village. I can’t read that forum. They get what seems like a major or historic storm every year and then whine they got 18 instead of 28. meanwhile I’m sitting here with one 10 inch storm in the last 8 years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Can anyone more experienced, smarter, etc tell me where this evenings little storm is going to be centered as it passes by. I can't really tell. I would like to go back to the theory of atmospheric memory, if this is passing to the south of PA, our weekend storm will pass to the south. We talked about it earlier this week. Just wondering if it is still a meaningful thought? I was reading Cranky, he was talking about it earlier this week, then it was brought up here. Just trying to have some hope not based from the modeling of the current situation on the 12z runs. If the L is not to our south tonight....please don't respond, it will just depress me further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I can’t read that forum. They get what seems like a major or historic storm every year and then whine they got 18 instead of 28. meanwhile I’m sitting here with one 10 inch storm in the last 8 years lol. Didn't you get like 28 days of measurable snow a couple years back, my memory is terrible but that would be a pretty good consolation prize. Although I love the big snows, that would be pretty cool as well. Correct me if it wasn't as exciting as I may think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, JTrout said: Can anyone more experienced, smarter, etc tell me where this evenings little storm is going to be centered as it passes by. I can't really tell. I would like to go back to the theory of atmospheric memory, if this is passing to the south of PA, our weekend storm will pass to the south. We talked about it earlier this week. Just wondering if it is still a meaningful thought? I was reading Cranky, he was talking about it earlier this week, then it was brought up here. Just trying to have some hope not based from the modeling of the current situation on the 12z runs. If the L is not to our south tonight....please don't respond, it will just depress me further. It is so weak it basically washes out but 700MB maps show it going south of us through southern VA and eventually "re-energizing", if you can call it that, when it gets into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: It is so weak it basically washes out but 700MB maps show it going south of us through southern VA and eventually "re-energizing", if you can call it that, when it gets into the Atlantic. So maybe because it's so weak of a signal, no real weight should be put on the whole "follow that L, the weekend storm will follow"? I was on that train early this week too, but the discussion was also to watch it's strength, a stronger thurs night storm south, would be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, JTrout said: Didn't you get like 28 days of measurable snow a couple years back, my memory is terrible but that would be a pretty good consolation prize. Although I love the big snows, that would be pretty cool as well. Correct me if it wasn't as exciting as I may think. Getting half an inch consistently gets old actually. Most of our best recent storms are over performing clippers that we get 3-5 inches. We haven’t got many 6 plus storms recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, canderson said: So it's going to rain all day Sunday, then be 4 f'n degrees Monday and Tuesday, then rain again Thursday and Friday. We're living the dream. NS before an event it's always cold...."then rain" And then back cold. This storm is even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, JTrout said: So maybe because it's so weak of a signal, no real weight should be put on the whole "follow that L, the weekend storm will follow"? I was on that train early this week too, but the discussion was also to watch it's strength, a stronger thurs night storm south, would be a good sign. What we really need is a high pressure to magically appear in South Eastern Canada and make the next Low decide to lateral the ball off to the South and East coast instead of bumping bellies with the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: What we really need is a high pressure to magically appear in South Eastern Canada and make the next Low decide to lateral the ball off to the South and East coast instead of bumping bellies with the high. I am in, lets have it do that. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Latest HRRR snowfall totals for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 And a bump from NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, pawatch said: And a bump from NWS. That makes literally no sense to me right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 My grid forecast is for 1-2" snow tonight ending at 5 a.m. Then for this weekend is a clusterf: Saturday SATURDAY Snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 33. East wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night SATURDAY NIGHT Freezing rain and sleet. Low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday SUNDAY Snow and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: So it's going to rain all day Sunday, then be 4 f'n degrees Monday and Tuesday, then rain again Thursday and Friday. We're living the dream. Every forum has one. Thanks JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Have not seen any UKMET snowfall maps but the path of the low was similar to the 0Z Euro. If today's Euro somehow holds ground it would be good to see what the UK really put down and it is is totally rain or has a front end thump. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 No miracle on the Euro. Snow to ice then rain for lsv. More as you go north and west. Head to the cabin Nut they get slammed up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Have not seen any UKMET snowfall maps but the path of the low was similar to the 0Z Euro. If today's Euro somehow holds ground it would be good to see what the UK really put down and it is is totally rain or has a front end thump. . Just showed up on MA. Surely some sleet in there but hug away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: No miracle on the Euro. Snow to ice then rain for lsv. More as you go north and west. Head to the cabin Nut they get slammed up that way. Question is how much ZR vs plain rain? My grid forecast does not include any plain rain for the storm at the moment. Just ZR and sleet Saturday night with a low of 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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