Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I read on another sub that we lost the Navgem. That bothers me, as it has a very progressive bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I think you are going to be right on this one...at least for those of us in the LSV. Way too soon for anyone to declare victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The 18z GEFS still is offering a good range of options with several good hits. About 2 inches of this is from the Thursday night storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z GEFS still is offering a good range of options with several good hits. About 2 inches of this is from the Thursday night storm. A bunch of good hits there for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Way too soon for anyone to declare victory. Not declaring anything my friend, just sharing my opinion and guess that he will be right. I understand how much time is left and how much can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, 2001kx said: A bunch of good hits there for my neck of the woods. I hope you get it bud. You are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: I hope you get it bud. You are due. Me too but im nervous...Been down this road many many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, 2001kx said: Me too but im nervous...Been down this road many many times. I sense you get yours this weekend. Hope so at least. Meanwhile I’m inflating my canoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 models South now; #ICON, #CFS, #UKMET, and #IBM Deep Thunder. Next up the Euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, pawatch said: 4 models South now; #ICON, #CFS, #UKMET, and #IBM Deep Thunder. Next up the Euro?? Unfortunately not having one of the biggies on our side is a concern. If one caves of starts back the other way by tomorrow night my white flag may fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Anyone see the new euro run. Believe it only runs out to hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, pawatch said: 4 models South now; #ICON, #CFS, #UKMET, and #IBM Deep Thunder. Next up the Euro?? Not that it probably matters much, but the 12Z JMA was a tad south, as well, but not as far south as the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, jwilson said: Not that it probably matters much, but the 12Z JMA was a tad south, as well, but not as far south as the Ukie. Thx. Didn’t look at it. We take what we can get right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Would love to see the Euro make a move south and east tonight. Any movement in that direction is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Sounds like CTP didn’t shut the door on us.....yet. Good read and what I’ve been driving at. (Ok they MAY know a little more that I do). .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Clouds will continue to increase tonight, creeping eastward and lowering slightly. The problem of the night will be if freezing drizzle will form instead of snow flakes. The soundings off the NAM and RAP show temps getting colder as the thickness of the low-moist layer increases/deepens. While the temp of the clouds never quite gets into the preferred DGZ, it is well below freezing through the entire layer. Not enough of a signal to drop mentions of FZDZ, but enough that we will keep away from an advy at this point. Will continue to watch the obs and seek reports to discern p-type this evening and overnight. Prev... Weak isentropic lift/WAA ahead of northern stream shortwave pivoting eastward from southern Ontario into Quebec and associated surface cold front moving southeast through the Great Lakes should promote some light snow across the western mountains tonight into early Wednesday. Soundings indicate shallow moisture profiles with weak low level upslope flow supporting very light snow or patchy freezing drizzle. A coating of snow/snizzle is possible by 12Z Wednesday and could make for some slippery travel mainly west of US-219 for the AM commute. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... *Widespread light to moderate snowfall Thursday PM-Friday AM The passage of cold front will shift winds to the WNW direct colder air downwind of the Great Lakes. Expect a brief period of lake-effect snow showers gusty winds through Wednesday afternoon before high pressure arrives Wednesday night. Any additional snow accumulation should be very light/less than 1 inch. Thursday will start dry but end white as a broad swath of snow spreads southwest to northeast across central PA by late evening. MaxTw`s aloft increase rather steadily Thursday night and approach 0C early Friday morning so can`t rule out a period of mixed precip over the southern tier given marginal profiles at the tail end of the event. Used a blend of NBM/WPC for QPF and snow amounts which support a widespread 1-3" accumulation. The Friday morning commute could be impacted with bulk of snow expected Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... *likelihood of a major winter storm for the holiday weekend followed by arctic cold snap and dangerous wind chills into early next week. Snowfall in excess of 1 foot possible over the Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania. Round 1 contain the upcoming 1-2 punches of winter weather will occur Thursday evening through the mid morning Friday as a flat wave aloft and weak sfc low reflection tracks NE from St. Louis at 18Z Thursday to Syracuse NY by 12Z Friday. Periods of moderate large-scale UVVEL and fairly low amounts of available moisture will lead to a widespread 1.5 to 3 inch snowfall across the majority of the CWA though a few spots across the higher terrain of Central and Nrn Pa could end up with around 4" over the 6-10 hour period of light snow. The least amounts of snow (around 1.5") will likely fall across the far southeast zones. Friday late morning right through early Saturday looks quiet as a ridge of high pressure extends from the Upper Great Lakes southeast through the Mid Atlantic Region. The focus will shift to a major winter storm that`s likely to impact much of the state Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Confidence remains high for winter storm impacts this weekend, however the exact details of the storm with respect to the timing, location and depth of the above freezing layer of air advecting north into the state are still imprecise. Much of this is a result of slight variations in the speed and track of the storm which will play a crucial rule in determining precipitation types and amounts. Highest confidence in heavy (even excessive) amounts of snow of over 1 foot are across the northern third of the CWA where multi-model consensus continues for the potential of mixed precip during just a short few hour period Sat night. 06Z/12Z Operational GFS and it`s EFS mean storm track are at the southeastern end of the envelope of solutions, While the 12Z operational EC, Canadian model and GFS-FV3 tracks the 994-998MB SFC low up the Ohio River Valley northeast across either southern or even Central PA late Sat night and early Sunday morning (which would even greatly trim the snowfall across the North- Central Mtns of the state. That being said regarding the changeover timing from snow and potential amounts up north, most if not the entire area will see a several...6 hour period of snow Sat afternoon and evening well ahead of the main South-Southwesterly LLJ axis. This first shot of snow will amount to anywhere from 2-7 inches with the most likely falling near and to the north of a KJST to KUNV and KIPT line. Steep q-stnry boundary for ascent will be located WSW to ENE across the CWA Sat night with mean 925 to 850 mb wet bulbs temps around zero near the I-80 corridor. Beneath the thicker, above freezing layer aloft across Southern PA will be sun- freezing sfc wet bulbs right down to the PA turnpike in southern PA through 06Z Sunday (thanks to strong LLVL Ageostrophic component of 30-35 kts from the NNE - helping to lock in the LLVL cold air). Temps may warm several deg F during the predawn hours Sunday lifting the FZRA/Rain line north to near a KIDI...KUNV and KAVP line. However, a multi-model blend, incorporating the colder members of the GFS model suite, keep sfc temps below freezing longer/further south early Sunday. There is "some" similarity of this storm to the other big snowmaker back on Nov 15-16th (with respect to potentially high precip rates, and the location, timing and depth of the above freezing layer aloft). The mid-November storm did have a bit more negative tilt to the upstream trough and a several hour period of strong upper level divergence and deep/strong UVVEL that delayed the changeover to mixed precip by a few hours during the time of heaviest precip rates. A zone of mixed precip (several to 6 inches of snow, topped by a layer of sleet and freezing rain and even a brief, few-hour period of plain rain) appears most likely near and just to the south of Interstate 80. Further south near the I-76, I78 and I-81 corridors should see a general 1-4 inches of snow Sat afternoon and evening followed by a changeover to sleet, FZRA then a period of moderate to ocnly heavy rain later Sat night/early Sunday with rapid stream rises possible. Even without the exact details, this storm will likely result in significant disruptions to travel and daily activities so please be prepared and plan accordingly. Brutally cold, arctic air will blast into the area during the day Sunday into early next week. GEFS shows temps falling steadily during the day sunday with NW winds gusting between 30-40 mph. GEFS guidance shows low temps Sunday night in the single digits above and below zero. Gusty winds combined with the frigid airmass should result in potentially dangerous wind chills in the -10 to -20F range. After taking a leave of absence over the last month and a half, winter is poised to make a big comeback with odds heavily favoring cold weather/below average temperatures through the second half of January into early February. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Thanks for posting that in 26pt font, so that us old facks can read. You really look out for us. That's why we used the hashtag #Anused. You get the job done when nobody else will. You really #Anused us there. And for that, I thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Thanks for posting that in 26pt font, so that us old facks can read. You really look out for us. That's why we used the hashtag #Anused. You get the job done when nobody else will. You really #Anused us there. And for that, I thank you. Ur whacked.......... I like that about you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Great write up by CTP ! I see that they mentioned the November storm that we had 2 months ago in regard to the potential of a good front end snow thump due to heavy precip rates. They also mention cold air staying anchored in for a good duration across most of our region. I think If we get great precip rates to start, we can over perform on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Unfortunately not having one of the biggies on our side is a concern. If one caves of starts back the other way by tomorrow night my white flag may fly. The UKMET is the # 2 ranked model. It is much better than the GFS or Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: I sense you get yours this weekend. Hope so at least. Meanwhile I’m inflating my canoe. I’m getting my shovel ready ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great write up by CTP ! I see that they mentioned the November storm that we had 2 months ago in regard to the potential of a good front end snow thump due to heavy precip rates. They also mention cold air staying anchored in for a good duration across most of our region. I think If we get great precip rates to start, we can over perform on the front end. yup....thats what I'm hangin my hat on for now. Some models show a good front end thump, and with any luck and flattening out front, it could pull of the XMAS 06' miracle in evolution. (i think it was 06). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We should root for a stronger system to move in Thursday night into Friday since that would shift the baroclinic zone farther south, allowing this weekend's event to track farther south. Thursday night's system seems like a general 2-4" event across most of the region. For this weekend, I would definitely be more concerned about the ice threat as opposed to snow, especially if I lived N and W of Interstate 81. There is a definite cold air damming signal, which CTP alluded to in the discussion, and it is often underestimated by the models leading up to events of this nature. That being said, strong frontogenetic lifting associated with warm air advection could lead to a solid burst of snow at the start across Central PA Saturday night, as hinted by the 18z GFS. The key to overperforming in this system would be to get strong rates at the start, which would cool the column and allow cold air to stick around longer. Definitely something to watch over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 NAM out to 75 is less diggy. You can see the flow is flatter and storm is a little weaker. Just fine by me and a ice start anyway..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 18z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon out to 18 looks............................ ICONIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon out to 18 looks............................ ICONIC Did we lose it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Did we lose it? It b stuck Krauts are F'in w/ us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: It b stuck It has to finish reading the MA Long Range thread to figure out its next move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: It has to finish reading the MA Long Range thread to figure out its next move. waiting for PSU's approval edit - i like him and all, but man he can be like a debate moderator (which he is at school or something). Its a discussion forum, not debate club. we all know we can be right or wrong for the right or wrong reasons in this sport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: It has to finish reading the MA Long Range thread to figure out its next move. HAHA LOL!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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