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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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12 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Lol, looks like UKMET shifted 200 miles north.


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And it includes the snow from Thursday night so basically little to no weekend snow.  I would rather this cut into Chicago not see all that rain. Cold heavy rain is worse than some showers and 50's.   These changes have been so drastic that it almost lends to us waiting on calling it as drastic changes means lack of model verification usually. 

 

 

Williamsport is still in the game for the Euro. 

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  1. (1/2) Given the media (and social media) buzz about the weekend storm...I present brief and measured update. NO, a blizzard is not likely to hit the big cities of I-95...in fact, a thunderstorm is more likely! The interior Northeast is a different story as...

     
  2. (2/2) ...a crushing snowfall is likely from northern PA, interior NY (mostly rain in NYC), VT, and most of inland NH & ME. Here in the SusQ Valley...the inland track and lack of blocking means likely a brief period of snow/mix changing to heavy rain, possibly ending as snow.

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3 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

I don’t know if you can write this off yet. The reason Ukmet is south is no phase with the northern stream. Jma and I know the deep thunder model now support it to some extent. Look at the UKMET and GFS.

 

 

Thanks for keeping things alive here.  The JMA is certainly nothing like the Euro or GFS but it does at least take the 850 line up to State College or more...probably a more frozen than wet storm though!

 

 

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This is what I am trying to say you still have to camps. Southern and northern look at the ensembles. You can see on the GEFS and GEPS you have less interaction with the TPV. The Euro run was actually a huge improvement with less interaction with the TPV. Can the UKMET be leading the way. Could be all for nothing but worth watching.

4F64D388-0066-42CC-8F1A-B6298590D13F.jpeg

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I know I’m thinking the writing is on the wall for the weekend system.

But something tells me the Ukie might be on to something. I would have thought it would have caved to the Euro and GFS but it is holding its ground firmly.

Seasonal trends have been confluence driven and this would be the first to phase.


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35 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

So the 18Z Nam still has a solid 2"+ fall Thursday evening with the freezing lines way south of us/no chance of rain.  Lets hope we can enjoy that one and whiten up the ground some. 

I'll take the 2" and call it a day if need be. February hopefully is more promising!

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