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Central PA - Winter 2018-19

pasnownut

By pasnownut,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

CTP discussion for this weekend is worth a read IMO:

Quote 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*Potential major winter storm for the holiday weekend followed
 by arctic cold snap and dangerous wind chills into early next
 week

Friday into early Saturday looks quiet as focus will shift to
potential major winter storm for the weekend.

Confidence remains high for winter storm impacts this weekend,
however the details of the storm are still not clear. Much of
this is a result of shifts in the speed and track of the storm
which will play a crucial rule in determining precipitation
types and amounts.

At this time, areas north of I-80 are most likely to see
moderate to heavy snowfall with amounts around a foot possible.
A zone of mixed precip (snow, sleet, freezing rain and even
plain rain) appears most likely at times south of I-80 to the
MD line. Expect more frozen ptypes (snow/sleet) between I-80 and
I-70/76 with more freezing or plain rain ptypes south of the PA
Turnpike. Even without the exact details, this storm will likely
result in significant disruptions to travel and daily activities
so please be prepared and plan accordingly.

Brutally cold, arctic air will blast into the area later Sunday
early next week. Blend of ensemble guidance shows low temps
Sunday night in the single digits above and below zero. Gusty
winds combined with the frigid airmass should result in
potentially dangerous wind chills in the -10 to -20F range.

After taking a leave of absence over the last month and a half,
winter is poised to make a big comeback with odds heavily
favoring cold weather/below average temperatures through the
second half of January into early February.

 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, daxx said:

Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm.  Hopefully things turn around at 12z.   Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall.  As you move north and west it gets better.  Upstate NY does great.

Yep...though the Ukie is interesting enough to keep some hope alive. It's still early in the game as well. 

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pawatch

pawatch

Posted
Posted

Part of NWS discussion.

At this time, areas north of I-80 are most likely to see
moderate to heavy snowfall with amounts around a foot possible.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=ooffs 

still plenty of time for most everyone to get in the game.

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, daxx said:

Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm.  Hopefully things turn around at 12z.   Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall.  As you move north and west it gets better.  Upstate NY does great.

At least the severe ice situation appears to be not materializing. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, daxx said:

Not liking what I see so far at all for the weekend storm.  Hopefully things turn around at 12z.   Just looked at the 06z ecmwf eps out to hour 144 and for the lsv is pretty much toast for a good snowfall.  As you move north and west it gets better.  Upstate NY does great.

Horst just issued a new 7 day forecast and man is beating the heavy rain drum for Saturday night...

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted

12Z Nam is all snow for Thursday night.  1-3" generally for most both LSV and other areas in Central and Eastern PA.  Jackpots Central VA with 4-5". The one positive thing is the SLP and boundary location, as NUT has been speaking, is set more south than the GFS.  Its not much of a Low but it does go off Southern VA coast. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
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Posted
15 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

12Z Nam is all snow for Thursday night.  1-3" generally for most both LSV and other areas in Central and Eastern PA.  Jackpots Central VA with 4-5". The one positive thing is the SLP and boundary location, as NUT has been speaking, is set more south than the GFS.  Its not much of a Low but it does go off Southern VA coast. 

was just looking at 500/700/850 panels for 12z Nam for that very thing.  Just need to hope the GFS caves to the meso's.  Doesnt have to cave a lot, just a bit.

Sorry, but I really really like Horst, and he's usually more right than wrong.....but I'm hoping for the latter (as we all are).  Not expecting 24", but a more frozen variety is my bar.  Boy do I wish I was in state college to NC Pa for this one over the weekend.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

was just looking at 500/700/850 panels for 12z Nam for that very thing.  Just need to hope the GFS caves to the meso's.  Doesnt have to cave a lot, just a bit.

Sorry, but I really really like Horst, and he's usually more right than wrong.....but I'm hoping for the latter (as we all are).  Not expecting 24", but a more frozen variety is my bar.  Boy do I wish I was in state college to NC Pa for this one over the weekend.

A big heck yes to every word of this. I'm fine with some snow and then a wintry mix...just please not hours of heavy rain and temps in the 40s. 

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daxx

daxx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

FWIW, the German's bring the 534 down into CTP for Thurs/Friday and are all snow for the LSV.  Obviously 540 also ticked south. 

When you dont have much to work with ....every little bit helps.  hehe

12z icon is just not giving up still showing snow and ice for the weekend storm.

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

As of now, even the "warm" GFS isn't sending temps into the 40's and obliterating the previous snow.  The LSV goes up to 34, maybe 35 tops before the bottom falls out.  Rain falling on snow with a temp of 34 is not going to obliterate the new snowpack.  The GFS is also notorious for warming things up too much at the surface.

I'm about to see what the ICON is showing for storm #2 and will report back.  It's been consistently colder, and now along with its next door neighbor the UKIE.

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted

I am starting to cave to the fact that a very wet Saturday night is going to be in store.  We are going to be flooded with warm air as the LP approaches and there really is nothing to make it do anything other than what is being depicted which is run right along the boundary which looks to be too close to us.  We can surely get some freezing rain but snow wise it is not looking good.  12Z GFS is bringing low #1 into Pitt!  Ugh.  

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daxx

daxx

Posted
Posted
Just now, bubbler86 said:

I am starting to cave to the fact that a very wet Saturday night is going to be in store.  We are going to be flooded with warm air as the LP approaches and there really is nothing to make it do anything other than what is being depicted which is run right along the boundary which looks to be too close to us.  We can surely get some freezing rain but snow wise it is not looking good.  

Yes we will probably rain.  We can hope for more front and back end of storm.

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