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Central PA - Winter 2018-19

pasnownut

By pasnownut,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  Pattern looks to be better as we turn the Calendar.  Your right....we also dont need suppression depression.  Cold enough is fine.

Merry Christmas to all my CTP Peeps....and any other lurkers ^_^

 

You too!  A safe and Blessed Holiday for all of you and yours. 

 

The afternoon LR models are backing down from a "great" pattern 14 days out so boo on them. The flips they frequently make give me a headache forecasting out more than 7 days!

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted

I wasn't trying to strike a nerve with my previous post regarding January...one thing Eric is exceptionally good at is pattern recognition. Doesn't mean he's right, doesn't mean all of our eggs are in one week's basket. But as bubbler stated above, their are already signs out there that the great pattern being advertised is perhaps in jeopardy...(or delayed)

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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Posted

once we turn the calendar, the overnight GEFS and fv3 really take on a wintery look at 500mb.  longwave pattern w/ big ridge out west and trough digging for the deep south in the east.  Looks like cold would be no problem, just need the stj to be close enough to throw some energy into it...or it would be clipper city.

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daxx

daxx

Posted
Posted
Just now, pasnownut said:

once we turn the calendar, the overnight GEFS and fv3 really take on a wintery look at 500mb.  longwave pattern w/ big ridge out west and trough digging for the deep south in the east.  Looks like cold would be no problem, just need the stj to be close enough to throw some energy into it...or it would be clipper city.

Yes.... it's soon time to start tracking.   After this late week rain I think we will be tracking Winter weather.   They might not be all snow, but it's way better than what we have had. 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

The 12z EPS run today was the best in the last couple of days. We should have a few snow opportunities starting with this weekend & continuing through the first week of January.

About 35 of the 50 EPS ensemble members brought at least a couple of inches of snow to CTP. There were several members that were heavy hitters. 

We should have a fun week of tracking!

 

9F655C4E-02B3-4CDD-A106-63923F4CF044.png

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Merry Christmas everyone. While were trying to track up whenever our next snow event will materialize I figured I'd whiten up the thread and share a couple pics of the November 15th snowstorm from here. I never was able to post any pics from my phone at the time, and my laptop was out of commission for over a month. My less than a year old snowblower also decided to not work for this event so I had to shovel most of my driveway haha. 

IMG_2600.thumb.jpg.14b135cffa9bd5a08d44c88469cd77d2.jpgIMG_2604.thumb.jpg.0270f550390348267467fe0a7702724b.jpg

 

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pawatch

pawatch

Posted
Posted
On December 25, 2018 at 7:59 PM, MAG5035 said:

Merry Christmas everyone. While were trying to track up whenever our next snow event will materialize I figured I'd whiten up the thread and share a couple pics of the November 15th snowstorm from here. I never was able to post any pics from my phone at the time, and my laptop was out of commission for over a month. My less than a year old snowblower also decided to not work for this event so I had to shovel most of my driveway haha. 

IMG_2600.thumb.jpg.14b135cffa9bd5a08d44c88469cd77d2.jpgIMG_2604.thumb.jpg.0270f550390348267467fe0a7702724b.jpg

 

Sheesh Mag you was in bad shape that day. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

I know there was fair amount of commentary in our previous thread right before the new one got made about the general snowless..ness we've had this month, especially in the LSV where snowfall has been basically zero. A snowless or near snowless December is certainly not something us winter weather fans want to see, but it's hardly unprecedented in the LSV. CTP had some stats in their disco this morning, which I've been trying to find. 

Per CTP, also included their input on the yearly rainfall bc that is something that has definitely been unprecedented. 

.CLIMATE...
Yearly Precipitation Record Watch...

Station  Precip in 2018   Rank   Record, year
-------  --------------   ----   ------------
KIPT       68.74           2     70.26, 2011
KMDT       64.96           2     73.73, 2011
KAOO       54.62           2     57.32, 1972
KBFD       47.44           20    60.65, 1992
KJST       60.15           1*    60.58, 1927**
* Record value for the airport
** Record for all historical reporting stations in Johnstown

0.5" to a little >1" rainfall is forecast for Thurs night and
Fri.

Johnstown is almost certain to eclipse that 60.58 and set their
record wet year.

This could (but probably won`t) push KIPT over their record.
They just need 1.52" to set the record. Current forecast precip
total for Thurs night-Fri wouldn`t put them over. But, it could
be close.

The other sites probably won`t get to their respective records.
Harrisburg needs to add about 9" to get there.

So far...ZERO snowfall for Dec for KMDT. There have been 12
Decemebers with a Trace or No snowfall in Harrisburg. The last
snow-less Dec was 2015. (Any flurries count as a Trace of snow.)

Just a Trace of snow has fallen this Dec at KIPT. Williamsport
has had 9 Decembers with a Trace or No snowfall - last was also
in 2015.

I'm not sure how far MDT's obs go back. Weather Underground's historical for MDT goes back to 1935, which would make for approx a 14% rate for T or less Decembers at that station if that's how far back it goes. At any rate it's happened before, several times. The thing about this winter is we are still running average to above average to date because of November. Sometimes that's the disadvantage of getting an established winter-like pattern early. November was a quite a wintry month, especially the 2nd half of the month. The pattern this month simply has not been as favorable, especially with storm tracks. Mother nature doesn't much care about month to month snowfall averages. We could have gotten that big snowstorm on November 30 and we'd still technically have a deficit for December. 

Looking at the pattern going forward, my personal opinion is we got to get the MJO out of phases 5-6 and in the meantime we will continue to have trouble with cutting storms..even phase 7 too. The GFS, GEFS has especially been forecasting very high amplitude to the MJO pulse running through 5-6 . We've been running an active southern stream so far this winter (Nino type winter) so I think the tropical forcing that makes the MJO tick is having a heavier influence, esp in the absence of much of a really dominant feature in the traditional teleconnections (for example dominating Pac ridge or trough, established blocking via -NAO, etc). I thought the storm following tomorrows cutter would be one to watch for a potential swath of wintry precip but models have since started to zero on another cutting storm bringing mostly rain near New Years, which I believe is the tendancy for SE ridging in MJO 5-6 rearing it's ugly head. None of this really worries me too much right now in the long run, but we look pretty unfavorable for snows heading into the first week of January right now.

Speaking of teleconnections, the particular NOAA site that monitors the EPO and WPO is currently not available because of well.. DC being DC. The MJO forecasts are still available though HERE.

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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

I know there was fair amount of commentary in our previous thread right before the new one got made about the general snowless..ness we've had this month, especially in the LSV where snowfall has been basically zero. A snowless or near snowless December is certainly not something us winter weather fans want to see, but it's hardly unprecedented in the LSV. CTP had some stats in their disco this morning, which I've been trying to find. 

Per CTP, also included their input on the yearly rainfall bc that is something that has definitely been unprecedented. 


.CLIMATE...
Yearly Precipitation Record Watch...

Station  Precip in 2018   Rank   Record, year
-------  --------------   ----   ------------
KIPT       68.74           2     70.26, 2011
KMDT       64.96           2     73.73, 2011
KAOO       54.62           2     57.32, 1972
KBFD       47.44           20    60.65, 1992
KJST       60.15           1*    60.58, 1927**
* Record value for the airport
** Record for all historical reporting stations in Johnstown

0.5" to a little >1" rainfall is forecast for Thurs night and
Fri.

Johnstown is almost certain to eclipse that 60.58 and set their
record wet year.

This could (but probably won`t) push KIPT over their record.
They just need 1.52" to set the record. Current forecast precip
total for Thurs night-Fri wouldn`t put them over. But, it could
be close.

The other sites probably won`t get to their respective records.
Harrisburg needs to add about 9" to get there.

So far...ZERO snowfall for Dec for KMDT. There have been 12
Decemebers with a Trace or No snowfall in Harrisburg. The last
snow-less Dec was 2015. (Any flurries count as a Trace of snow.)

Just a Trace of snow has fallen this Dec at KIPT. Williamsport
has had 9 Decembers with a Trace or No snowfall - last was also
in 2015.

I'm not sure how far MDT's obs go back. Weather Underground's historical for MDT goes back to 1935, which would make for approx a 14% rate for T or less Decembers at that station if that's how far back it goes. At any rate it's happened before, several times. The thing about this winter is we are still running average to above average to date because of November. Sometimes that's the disadvantage of getting an established winter-like pattern early. November was a quite a wintry month, especially the 2nd half of the month. The pattern this month simply has not been as favorable, especially with storm tracks. Mother nature doesn't much care about month to month snowfall averages. We could have gotten that big snowstorm on November 30 and we'd still technically have a deficit for December. 

Looking at the pattern going forward, my personal opinion is we got to get the MJO out of phases 5-6 and in the meantime we will continue to have trouble with cutting storms..even phase 7 too. The GFS, GEFS has especially been forecasting very high amplitude to the MJO pulse running through 5-6 . We've been running an active southern stream so far this winter (Nino type winter) so I think the tropical forcing that makes the MJO tick is having a heavier influence, esp in the absence of much of a really dominant feature in the traditional teleconnections (for example dominating Pac ridge or trough, established blocking via -NAO, etc). I thought the storm following tomorrows cutter would be one to watch for a potential swath of wintry precip but models have since started to zero on another cutting storm bringing mostly rain near New Years, which I believe is the tendancy for SE ridging in MJO 5-6 rearing it's ugly head. None of this really worries me too much right now in the long run, but we look pretty unfavorable for snows heading into the first week of January right now.

Speaking of teleconnections, the particular NOAA site that monitors the EPO and WPO is currently not available because of well.. DC being DC. The MJO forecasts are still available though HERE.

That November snowstorm turned out to a tease for us. :-) GFS looked blah today. I remember back forget the year LSV had that Halloween snowstorm and then I believe it was lousy winter. I am wondering if the same thing happens this year. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, paweather said:

That November snowstorm turned out to a tease for us. :-) GFS looked blah today. I remember back forget the year LSV had that Halloween snowstorm and then I believe it was lousy winter. I am wondering if the same thing happens this year. 

It was October 2011 when we had that snowstorm and yea we had quite the lousy winter that season. 2011-2012 was a solidly La Nina winter so not really any similarities ENSO wise. I also believe Nov 2011 was one of the warmest on record if I recall correctly. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

So far...ZERO snowfall for Dec for KMDT. There have been 12 Decemebers with a Trace or No snowfall in Harrisburg. The last snow-less Dec was 2015. (Any flurries count as a Trace of snow.) Just a Trace of snow has fallen this Dec at KIPT. Williamsport has had 9 Decembers with a Trace or No snowfall - last was also in 2015.

 

Hey Mag,

 

It was me that brought the above up and my thought was based on Decembers where there was not even a trace of snow.  I only looked back to 1988 but from that point forward no December at MDT has ever gone by without a trace of snowfall until the potential of this one.  2015 actually featured trace snow fall recorded 3 times.  Trace, no trace...still basically no snowfall but it takes a special kind of bad month to not have even a trace.

Here is the climate data showing a trace 3 times in December 2015 so if that is wrong then my premise is wrong as well! :-).  The 3 green T's are under the new snowfall column. 

image.png.84a0f38b1531b18faf1a292fa531c99b.png

 

 

 

 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

Hey Mag,

 

It was me that brought the above up and my thought was based on Decembers where there was not even a trace of snow.  I only looked back to 1988 but from that point forward no December at MDT has ever gone by without a trace of snowfall until the potential of this one.  2015 actually featured trace snow fall recorded 3 times.  Trace, no trace...still basically no snowfall but it takes a special kind of bad month to not have even a trace.

Here is the climate data showing a trace 3 times in December 2015 so if that is wrong then my premise is wrong as well! :-).  The 3 green T's are under the new snowfall column. 

I do understand where your coming from and I'm certainly not disagreeing that this has been a lousy month snow-wise. Back this way this month has accounted for only about an inch or so of the 13.5" I have to date when Dec generally averages roughly 8-10" here. It's been a tough month, we had a cold pattern for most of the first half of the month and missed out on a suppressed storm near mid month before the pattern switched in favor of cutting storms. We have not had any established blocking downstream to promote any consistent NW flow to promote very much snow in the LES belts or mountains either. We're just working through a period right now that has featured an unfavorable storm track but not necessarily a warm regime either, which I went into my thoughts on that in my previous post.

 In the case of MDT I just think the difference between a T for the month and 0" is a fairly moot point. It was noted in that CTP discussion I posted that "any flurries count as a trace of snow". A T for the month would still imply there wasn't any measurable snow for that month. This current December is probably going to close out with zero snowfall in MDT if there hasn't been a T recorded to this point. So yea either way we're pretty much on level footing in that regard to 2015 and 11 other Decembers.

I'm more interested in the details that got us there. I mean look at those temperatures in that period of Dec 2015 you posted. You could probably put those numbers in for the last 20 days of October and still end up above average. The warmth in that December (and November) was unbelievable. I actually am surprised there was any snow recorded, and look at the temps during those days a T was recorded. But there is no comparison to this December temp wise. The temperatures for the most part this month have been typical of the month we're in aside from the couple warm days we've had ahead of cutting storms, but we have not been in any established warm pattern. If we're talking pretty unprecedented runs without meaningful snowfall, there have been a couple winters in the recent past where we've went way into January before some LSV sites ever even had their first measurable snowfall. Take that 2015-2016 for example with the T in December, MDT didn't have their first inch until January 22-23rd (which was immediately followed by about 30" or so more). 2006-2007 was another winter that had an absolutely awful start in the LSV. I'm pretty sure York/Lancaster didn't record their first inch of snowfall until early February of that winter. MDT might not have either, check out the graph. So moral of the story, yea this has been a lousy month but I can show you worse periods of no snow..and pretty recently too haha. And MDT is already 8.8" on the season because of November's snowstorm, which still would have them above average.  

KMDT2007plot.png.1e36adb2964e4c206499228b9a47bd79.png

You can find these climo graphs HERE and they go back to 1999 for MDT. 

 

 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I do understand where your coming from and I'm certainly not disagreeing that this has been a lousy month snow-wise. Back this way this month has accounted for only about an inch or so of the 13.5" I have to date when Dec generally averages roughly 8-10" here. It's been a tough month, we had a cold pattern for most of the first half of the month and missed out on a suppressed storm near mid month before the pattern switched in favor of cutting storms. We have not had any established blocking downstream to promote any consistent NW flow to promote very much snow in the LES belts or mountains either. We're just working through a period right now that has featured an unfavorable storm track but not necessarily a warm regime either, which I went into my thoughts on that in my previous post.

 In the case of MDT I just think the difference between a T for the month and 0" is a fairly moot point. It was noted in that CTP discussion I posted that "any flurries count as a trace of snow". A T for the month would still imply there wasn't any measurable snow for that month. This current December is probably going to close out with zero snowfall in MDT if there hasn't been a T recorded to this point. So yea either way we're pretty much on level footing in that regard to 2015 and 11 other Decembers.

I'm more interested in the details that got us there. I mean look at those temperatures in that period of Dec 2015 you posted. You could probably put those numbers in for the last 20 days of October and still end up above average. The warmth in that December (and November) was unbelievable. I actually am surprised there was any snow recorded, and look at the temps during those days a T was recorded. But there is no comparison to this December temp wise. The temperatures for the most part this month have been typical of the month we're in aside from the couple warm days we've had ahead of cutting storms, but we have not been in any established warm pattern. If we're talking pretty unprecedented runs without meaningful snowfall, there have been a couple winters in the recent past where we've went way into January before some LSV sites ever even had their first measurable snowfall. Take that 2015-2016 for example with the T in December, MDT didn't have their first inch until January 22-23rd (which was immediately followed by about 30" or so more). 2006-2007 was another winter that had an absolutely awful start in the LSV. I'm pretty sure York/Lancaster didn't record their first inch of snowfall until early February of that winter. MDT might not have either, check out the graph. So moral of the story, yea this has been a lousy month but I can show you worse periods of no snow..and pretty recently too haha. And MDT is already 8.8" on the season because of November's snowstorm, which still would have them above average.  

KMDT2007plot.png.1e36adb2964e4c206499228b9a47bd79.png

You can find these climo graphs HERE and they go back to 1999 for MDT. 

 

 

Great post MAG !

I think that in a few weeks our snowless December will be a distant memory !

The Euro weeklies released today look outstanding in terms of good winter storm pattern potential from mid January through the end of the run in early February.

I think there will even be snow chances in the next week or so, even before the advertised  “good” pattern arrives. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

To coin a carpenter song...”we’ve only just begun”....

 

79B9E4F0-6A4F-42CE-87B8-3E442033BAA9.png

Funny thing...as a kid back in the early to mid 1970s I would lay in bed awake in the middle of the night with my little transistor radio waiting for Accu Weather updates...all while listening to Jim Croce, Paul McCartney and Wings, and the Carpenters. Them were some good times...

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
  • Author
Posted
6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Funny thing...as a kid back in the early to mid 1970s I would lay in bed awake in the middle of the night with my little transistor radio waiting for Accu Weather updates...all while listening to Jim Croce, Paul McCartney and Wings, and the Carpenters. Them were some good times...

absolutely.  You were not the only one.  We are a unique bunch, but I consider myself to be in great company.

 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

absolutely.  You were not the only one.  We are a unique bunch, but I consider myself to be in great company.

 

I had a NOAA weather radio. Every day in the winter after school, I could not wait until they updated the forecast in the late afternoon. The best times took place when the alerts for a “Winter Storm Warning” were broadcast. I would listen to it over & over !

In the 80’s & 90’s,in the days before the internet, all that we had for weather news was the weather radio, local TV weather, The Weather Channel & Weather World on PBS. I would try to flip around during the 6pm or 11pm TV news to catch every forecast possible during winter!

 

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