WmsptWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 It's damn cold out up here. If we can get just enough moisture, the central counties could eeak out a winner here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The Kansas City game will be fun to watch. Nothing like football in the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gosnow Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 State college in afd hinting at perhaps heavier amounts due to deformation zone for se areas. Perhaps some bonus snow. Model Cycle and latest SREF indicates the potential for 2-3X the snowfall forecast for the far SE zones thanks to a mesoscale deformation zone just to the north of a compact 700-500 mb closed low Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. The SREF shows the nose of a -2 to -3 sigma, u-wind anomaly (easterly LLJ) pointed right into that area. There will be a very tight SSE to NNW gradient in snowfall within 20-30 miles north and south of the I-76 corridor. Will take the measurable approach to gradually increase amounts across our far SE zones (near and to the south of a KTHV to KLNS line Sunday into Sunday evening), but still keep the bulk of Lancaster and York counties below Winter Storm Warning criteria of 5 inches for now. BUFKIT time/height cross sections show a distinct second period of moderate to briefly heavy snow from about 22Z Sunday to 04Z Monday INVOF KLNS and points south from this potential deformation snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Gosnow said: State college in afd hinting at perhaps heavier amounts due to deformation zone for se areas. Perhaps some bonus snow. Model Cycle and latest SREF indicates the potential for 2-3X the snowfall forecast for the far SE zones thanks to a mesoscale deformation zone just to the north of a compact 700-500 mb closed low Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. The SREF shows the nose of a -2 to -3 sigma, u-wind anomaly (easterly LLJ) pointed right into that area. There will be a very tight SSE to NNW gradient in snowfall within 20-30 miles north and south of the I-76 corridor. Will take the measurable approach to gradually increase amounts across our far SE zones (near and to the south of a KTHV to KLNS line Sunday into Sunday evening), but still keep the bulk of Lancaster and York counties below Winter Storm Warning criteria of 5 inches for now. BUFKIT time/height cross sections show a distinct second period of moderate to briefly heavy snow from about 22Z Sunday to 04Z Monday INVOF KLNS and points south from this potential deformation snow band. Welcome to the forum! Seems like some boom and bust potential right up to and through game time. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Where is Nutter? He's made like 3000 posts in the past 30 days and now's disappeared at showtime. Overcast, 32 and the sky has that classic look here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Sunny and 34 here. Hope it stays this way here, and all of you down there cash in nicely! I can't think of a better storm scenario for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gosnow Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Welcome to the forum! Seems like some boom and bust potential right up to and through game time. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds... Thank you! Live in Lititz and a weather hound. Love snow most of all. Yeah this will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 It really looks and feels like snow. Sun has given way to ominous snow clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Where is Nutter? He's made like 3000 posts in the past 30 days and now's disappeared at showtime. Overcast, 32 and the sky has that classic look here. That’s funny, I was just thinking the same thing. He hasn’t been posting in the other thread either. I’m sure we will hear from him soon with some snow on the way tonight, plus the possibility of more next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, canderson said: It really looks and feels like snow. Sun has given way to ominous snow clouds. Yes, I was just out for a walk with my kids & it has that snow look out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Gosnow said: Thank you! Live in Lititz and a weather hound. Love snow most of all. Yeah this will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Welcome aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Echoes are just getting overhead here, nothing to the ground yet. Should be soon, snow is visible on 511pa cams in JST. 30ºF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, MAG5035 said: Echoes are just getting overhead here, nothing to the ground yet. Should be soon, snow is visible on 511pa cams in JST. 30ºF What are your thoughts on potential snow amounts at this time for both your area & also the LSV ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I’ll be ecstatic if I can get 2.5”. Seems like no matter what model change MDT hasn’t budged for .15-.2” qpf. Crazy that parts of VA will have a foot and half more snow than this subforum this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 And we're off, very light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Had to run to the store to grab an ingredient for dinner and it’s chaos. Like, people are expecting a blizzard and not a ~2” snow. What the hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: What are your thoughts on potential snow amounts at this time for both your area & also the LSV ? At the very least I think CTP's advisory lineup and numbers look pretty good across the board over the region for now. Things to watch for will be with the initial shield of warm advection precip (which is generally the primary source of the snowfall for our region) and how well it presses northeastward into PA. HRRR has looked pretty good with pressing it pretty far NE, nearly getting the 1" line at 10:1 to IPT on the latest run. Ratios will be a key to get to advisory amounts. A straight 10:1 wouldn't get there with the QPF in all but the southern tier border counties. I know in earlier CTP discos they've mentioned 13-15:1 ratios, which is good but could be better. A limiting factor mentioned was that despite good dendritic growth high up, falling through the lower levels could cause riming and accretion. So if we were to end up getting better ratios (15-18:1 type stuff), then we'd squeeze a bit more snow out on the fluff factor. So i'll be curious if we end up with some better enhancement in the JST-AOO-MDT corridor with the WAA snows. It also wouldn't take much to squeeze out an extra tenth or so of precip either, especially turnpike south. Last night from CTP: Quote Best UVVEL is inside or just above the DGZ as this band moves in. The DGZ is well aloft, about 15kft up. So, despite a good set up for dendrites to grow nicely, they may rime/accrete as they fall through the lower clouds and keep the SLRs in check. SLRs look exactly the same as last few runs, about 13:1 in Somerset with a slight gradient up to 15:1 at UNV and MDT. The other and more potentially impacting thing to watch is what happens when the coastal low starts to take over. For one, the models have been pretty quick to snuff out the warm advection shield over PA once that starts happening. Does it really do that? Or will it linger more, and then be part of the deform shield of the coastal low that will have the heavier precip and better forcing. The 18z NAM kind of tried to do that, and illustrated how it's possible that the border counties join in with the Mid-Atl forum in getting warning snows. It'll be interesting to watch this unfold tonight. It's a moisture laden Gulf Storm, and these types of events always seem to find a way to squeeze out more snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 First flakes flying here....a bit warmer than I was expecting. 34. DP will drop that shortly. North trend seems to have stopped as Canderson was alluding to so as Mag mentioned the larger amounts are going to be all about where a possible coastal deform sets up. Will be the difference between 3" and 8". Here is our "Icon" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Thanks MAG. The precip in the Tennessee area looks juiced up & is heading north east. The precip from IL to OH is also up to their respective northern borders. I agree that if we stay in the precip shield as the low shifts toward the coast, then we could be looking at more snow than modeled. I think we have the chance to get a little more QPF than currently modeled & we could do better than 15-1 ratios with this cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Virga is going to hurt. It’s 33/8! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Pixy dust is starting to fly here. Heading out to spend the next 12 hours playing in it. its looking like it may be an overachiever just by the size of its growing shield and trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 29/21 Dusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, canderson said: Virga is going to hurt. It’s 33/8! I told you on Tuesday that I was willing this mother****er north. Calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: First flakes flying here....a bit warmer than I was expecting. 34. DP will drop that shortly. North trend seems to have stopped as Canderson was alluding to so as Mag mentioned the larger amounts are going to be all about where a possible coastal deform sets up. Will be the difference between 3" and 8". Here is our "Icon" Hopefully this is indeed our “ICON” ! If we get .4 or .5 QPF in the LSV, we would get to warning criteria snow with ratios! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 46 minutes ago, canderson said: Virga is going to hurt. It’s 33/8! I know what you mean, but dew points through the most of PA were near 10 to 15 most of the day, but snow is underway is many places to the south & west of Harrisburg already. It will be our turn soon. The radar is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Seeing the first flakes (flurries) starting to fly her in Lancaster County.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Some steadier lighter snow with the arrival of some enhanced echoes overhead.. still trying to work on getting some accumulation going. Flakes are of the sparkly variety (dendrites). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Streets are slightly covered here now. (Side streets). Steady light to moderate snow. Dusting + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Been light snow falling for about 20 minutes now at the shop here in Dillsburg. Cold trucks getting dusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Earlier today Bliz93 posted the overnight Euro showing the mega storm for next weekend. Here's the new GFSv3 12z run total snow output for the next 10 days. This includes the current event, but wow, look at the bullseye southwest of DC showing 54" !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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