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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut

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26 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Listen, don't judge your nanny by what she likes to do when you're not around. Her teeth weren't lost in any outdoor wind incident, believe me. Also, I don't discriminate on age. She said fifty bucks is fifty bucks. That's a ton of scratch offs. 

Oh, and Nanny's weird shit runs in the family, if you catch my drift. 

you fooker i'm crying here. 

canderson, that wind gust was pretty impressive. 

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42 minutes ago, canderson said:

MAG, the overnight Euro was horrible for PA but do you still believe this will naturally pop/expand north a bit or is that high just too strong and in the wrong position?

I think the high is in a pretty good spot but we have issues to overcome in terms of the features in the pattern. The active Pac pattern undercuts the western ridge as this thing blossoms and it gets pushed east and thus we have an amplification problem. With that, the storm has generally been progged to "peak" in the midwest where the highest snow totals have been showing up in esp MO and IL.  If we could slow the pattern down and amplify, we would have no problem pressing a solid event into our region even with just the southern stream wave. But instead we press the storm east and force secondary development that has nothing for the high to the north or confluent flow to the NE. Probably going to have to get all the players fully on the field and this storm initiated off the Rockies to see where we're at with getting this to come north a bit. 

 The overnight Euro was really messy at 500mb while the GFS for now was a bit more defined with the shortwave. For us we are likely going to live and die with whatever initial warm advection snows make it through the area before the coastal low develops unless there is a pretty sold shift north in the short term. If there is a pretty robust precip shield from that, we'd probably be fine and at least score some kind of an advisory event (Sus Valley criteria) with the cold air in place and good ratios. 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Weekend event is looking about as hot as Roseanne Barr. 

Ha! Yea it's barely worth tracking - 1" snow over 20 hours or so? I mean, any snow falling is good snow but watching someone in Virginia get 5-6" again will hurt. Let's hope the fabled upcoming pattern doesn't bust like that one in December!

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

Ha! Yea it's barely worth tracking - 1" snow over 20 hours or so? I mean, any snow falling is good snow but watching someone in Virginia get 5-6" again will hurt. Let's hope the fabled upcoming pattern doesn't bust like that one in December!

I agree...and if we get skunked during the 1/20 - 1/23 time frame it will doubly hurt. Long range models have been banging for a biggin' for days and we need that to go woof and not poof. 

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1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

LSV folks should really keep open to the possibilities of a moderate snow.   2 to 4" type. 

Yes, most models keep the LSV & south central Mountains of CTP in the game with 2-4 inches of snow this weekend.

We should be in a good location to max out on good ratios. 

Here is the 18z Kuchera ratio GFS today.

48E2535E-7847-42D5-9769-BF3CC2E4A346.png

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14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I logged in this morning and saw no new posts for 12 hours including no 3:00am maps from Blizzard of 93 and that told me everything I needed to know. 

An actual look at overnight and 6z guidance would have shown some improvement overall with getting precip into central and LSV locations, esp on the Euro. I fell asleep early last night or I would’ve posted about it. 

Right now it’s looking like a general 1-3” snowfall under I-80 with some possibility of 4-5” in the southern tier (esp west). 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

An actual look at overnight and 6z guidance would have shown some improvement overall with getting precip into central and LSV locations, esp on the Euro. I fell asleep early last night or I would’ve posted about it. 

Right now it’s looking like a general 1-3” snowfall under I-80 with some possibility of 4-5” in the southern tier (esp west). 

After I commented I did see that almost all 6z guidance came in either further north and/or juicier...interested to see what happens.

Certainly looks like DC metro is in line for a nice little snowfall. 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

An actual look at overnight and 6z guidance would have shown some improvement overall with getting precip into central and LSV locations, esp on the Euro. I fell asleep early last night or I would’ve posted about it. 

Right now it’s looking like a general 1-3” snowfall under I-80 with some possibility of 4-5” in the southern tier (esp west). 

Thanks for your thoughts.   The south central counties have been in the .25”+ qpf, what ratios are you thinking.   15/1ish ?

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2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Thinking Adams county is place to be, further east seems to dry up on most models. Also, weird storm...usually seeing stripe of winter storm warnings just west is good old fashion bowling ball...this guy just kinda dies out.

Yep, at least in my general local area this has a South Mountain special written all over it. 

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