downeastnc Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Most models now have higher QPF just offshore, if the current trend can just keep it up by Tues this could be decent here. .3-.5" QPF would make this a nice little end to winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I guess tracking a dusting in March, is a testament to how this blockbuster winter has gone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 This low wants to trend stronger albeit by small increments each run. We just need it to hug the coast a little more or longer maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I guess tracking a dusting in March, is a testament to how this blockbuster winter has gone! With all due respect, what other positive feedback can you provide to this forum? . Pro 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The Tuesday threat or whatever all depends if a meso low sets up in upstate South Carolina ive been watching this for several days. Wouldn't be surprised to see snow showers break out along and north of 85 on tuesday at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 hours ago, Hammer said: With all due respect, what other positive feedback can you provide to this forum? . Pro There is nothing positive at all about this winter. I can provide that 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I give another win to the models! They said at day 7 Tuesday night wouldn't be a non event. They've done a fine job of telling us at day 7 its not gonna snow instead of day 3 this year. And the only storm we got inside 6 days panned out. I'm speaking for our part of the country only. Haven't paid attention to the overall verification of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Having a Thunderstorm here in Pasquotank County at 9pm. Heavy rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 15m15 minutes ago 12z NAM-3km showing a period of snow Tuesday morning in interior SE NC. I dont expect any accumulation outside of MAYBE a dusting on elevated surface/grassy areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Anyway for that Tuesday morning precip to magically trend into central NC? A guy could hope, i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Just now, Solak said: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 15m15 minutes ago 12z NAM-3km showing a period of snow Tuesday morning in interior SE NC. I dont expect any accumulation outside of MAYBE a dusting on elevated surface/grassy areas. I'm watching this for my self to see if i can get a handful of flakes if i'm lucky as the trend has been for the precip to be a little further north here in ga. But knowing the way this winter has gone, the more painful runs that keep the band of precip just a county or two to the south will probably be the ones that verify. (euro) Icon has come a little further north this morning though, as well as the wrf suite. Probably my last shot at seeing anything this year unless something strange happens. If i manage to get more than a few minutes of rain/snow mix at 36 then this will be the highlight of the winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Anyway for that Tuesday morning precip to magically trend into central NC? A guy could hope, i suppose. We do have the latest HRRR: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 The 12z RGEM followed the NAM in showing a light event for NE SC into SE NC. 10:1 shows > 1" for areas just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 gfs is a bit wetter than previous runs for everyone..especially carolinas where i'd say it's a lot wetter. previous runs had little to none, now has a few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, FallsLake said: We do have the latest HRRR: Interesting. It is on the last frame, though. Will have to see if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: gfs is a bit wetter than previous runs for everyone..especially carolinas where i'd say it's a lot wetter. previous runs had little to none, now has a few tenths. NE parts of NE SC and SE NC just might see a surprise event. Even a dusting would be a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Interesting. It is on the last frame, though. Will have to see if it continues. Yeah we can hope. Nothing to lose. Precip would be developing right over us, which can be a good thing; but very hard to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 If a single flake falls here in SW Wake County it will be the most snow have had all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, wake4est said: If a single flake falls here in SW Wake County it will be the most snow have had all season. I thought you guys got ~1 with the December storm; then it got washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: NE parts of NE SC and SE NC just might see a surprise event. Even a dusting would be a win. yep, also think the same could happen here in ga..especially between columbus to macon north/south of atlanta/athens. Models have consistently shown it cold enough on the northern fridge/back edge for snow. Surface temps are initially an issue the further east you go but temps fall to near freezing early south of atlanta so a light dusting isn't out of the question in these areas. It's the long range hrrr so take it with a grain of salt but latest says maybe a little more than just a dusting in a tiny area..several hours of light snow between atlanta and macon with temps at or below freezing and a narrow band of more than 0.10 liquid. Temps start out already near freezing when it begins too. Would be nice if the models have been underestimating precip all along. The other day where we had a long line of showers/rain training over the same area for quite a distance (across the entire state) and not a single model picked up on it, including all the high resolution ones (didn't even show up on the simulated composite radar). Was thinking at the time, why can't this ever happen when it's cold. Would be nice if they missed this one by that much. 26 minutes ago, wake4est said: If a single flake falls here in SW Wake County it will be the most snow have had all season. this would keep the winter for being a total shutout for a lot of folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I thought you guys got ~1 with the December storm; then it got washed away. We got like .5" of sleet where I am. No snow in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernVAwx Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Worth noting the 12z GFS builds on a severe threat for Sunday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Strong El Nino subsurface wave.. looks like an El Nino Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Solak said: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 15m15 minutes ago 12z NAM-3km showing a period of snow Tuesday morning in interior SE NC. I dont expect any accumulation outside of MAYBE a dusting on elevated surface/grassy areas. Yes, this is called for in My Local Forecast, hope to see some "Token Flakes".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Peeking at the Models, almost all of them are hinting at a "event" for SENC in the Morning.. Do We get 32.01 and cold rain, or will "rates" over come the Sun Angle? Giving Us a dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, SENC said: Peeking at the Models, almost all of them are hinting at a "event" for SENC in the Morning.. Do We get 32.01 and cold rain, or will "rates" over come the Sun Angle? Giving Us a dusting? I would love to see you guys score. I think you got a decent chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 RAH late morning update. At the same time, a low amplitude perturbation -- and saturation/ precipitation aloft-- will migrate through the base of an ern CONUS trough, and into the Carolinas overnight-early Tue. The foregoing lower level cloudiness may allow for more of that precipitation aloft, related to the upr perturbation, to reach the surface over SC and srn/sern NC; and we have introduced a larger area of light measurable precipitation from the srn Piedmont to the Sandhills and srn and cntl Coastal Plain for late tonight-early Tue to account for that increasing probability. A marginally above freezing boundary layer will likely cause any snow to melt as it falls, though if rates are high enough for 2-3 hrs, that shallow above freezing could be melted out and allow for a very light dusting to occur primarily along and southeast of a line from Fayetteville to Goldsboro (ie. mainly Sampson Co.). More on this potential this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 HRRR continues to build in some snow across portions of NC for a brief period Tuesday morning.. Don't know if it is enough for folks in Wake to score...at least i'm in extreme southern wake.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Strong El Nino subsurface wave.. looks like an El Nino Spring. More rain. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 2 hours ago, wake4est said: We got like .5" of sleet where I am. No snow in it. It snowed a bit here in SE Wake and then went to sleet then rain. We got about an inch of slush. That was it for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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