downeastnc Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: Window is closing for this thing to make big jumps... need to see something promising by Saturday I say. It right where we want it, better to far east than to far west....I am a bit bias as it takes a lot less NW trend for me to cash in than for folks further inland....honestly I am fine with it staying suppressed until Sunday night, then make 3 or 4 jumps over a day or so. I get very wary of snow maps showing a lot of snow over MBY more than a day or two out as they always trend away....I want it trending to me that last 24-36 hrs......so I hope this thing stays suppressed for 4 more days at least on the models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Monday updated map by NOAA. Shows the chances for more than 2.5 inches of Snow/Sleet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 No discussion of 12Z models? Telling I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: No discussion of 12Z models? Telling I guess. They're strung out a suppressed like they have been for days and that's where I bet it will stay. I'll keep hammering home my point the models have done fantastic inside 7 days with general storm tracks. There are subtle changes but nothing dramatic like years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I think given the Tues/Weds storm may likely stay suppressed we can stick a fork in this winter. Snow after the 15th will be hard if not impossible to come by. Yeah I know some of you talk about "awesome April", "magnificent May" and "jubilant June" or whatever but sometimes over is just OVER. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myfrotho704 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Welp reason why this storm is going to oblivion is a faster trof, this does not allow overrunning for much of us, if you want good trends, just hope the trof lags behind more or its FR game over with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Not that it matters much but storm #1 has moved south some on this GFS run. Takes some of us in NC out of the T-storm threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 waves next week and no snow!?? Pathetic winter for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 The cold is also not sticking around as long next week. Very progressive. Been that way for a while now why should next week be any different 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, CaryWx said: The cold is also not sticking around as long next week. Very progressive. Been that way for a while now why should next week be any different We all knew that would happen.... This is ridiculous. Winter is holding on by a thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 3 waves next week and no snow!?? Pathetic winter for sure! I cant wait for it to end myself! Ready to put this dumpster fire behind us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The 00z GFS has the LP considerably further south than the 18z run. Probably nothing, just intriguing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yeah the Ohio Valley folks gotta be hating that trend lol....significantly further south at 00Z tonight versus 12Z today probably isn't anything to get to excited about but if it went any further SE then parts of NC could be back in play.....be interesting to see if the Euro moves any tonight.....for what it is worth the CMC also shifted 100 miles or more SE on the 00Z run tonight versus the 12Z today... 12Z low in the NC mts to off Delmarva 00Z Charleston to off Lookout to off Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Not sure if everyone is still keeping an eye on the Coastal. But just for example this is the GEFS for the storm about to hit NE. So over the course of 6 model runs went from well out to sea to a pretty large event for them. Usually it seems to follow this pattern where two camps set up of LP's and then eventually they come back together over the corrected location. Luck hasn't been in our favor this year obviously but the NW trend is alive and well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Be nice to have that for next Weds storm Thor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just got a little better on the gfs 18z. Here's that same frame now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Next Tues/Wed is the last grasp at straws for the winter, I am still kinda optimistic it would not take much of a NW trend to put eastern NC in play, be a nice payoff since we got blanked all winter ( we did get 4" in the early Dec storm but it was gone in a few hrs after we went to heavy rain )....... after that it looks like we might actually have a warm March which means storms, its been a long time since NC has had any real severe season in the spring.....obviously 2011 was terrible but since then it seems March-May has been cool and storms hard to come by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: Next Tues/Wed is the last grasp at straws for the winter, I am still kinda optimistic it would not take much of a NW trend to put eastern NC in play, be a nice payoff since we got blanked all winter ( we did get 4" in the early Dec storm but it was gone in a few hrs after we went to heavy rain )....... after that it looks like we might actually have a warm March which means storms, its been a long time since NC has had any real severe season in the spring.....obviously 2011 was terrible but since then it seems March-May has been cool and storms hard to come by. It's trying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Yep coming in snowier for NC at 90hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1010 LP at 96 but a bit too far off shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 0z GFSMy favorite! Leeside enhancement! Let's do this!Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 55 minutes ago, JoshM said: It's trying... No worries CMC says just wait till Sat lol....the GFS's are kinda close Sat too lol...winter is such a friggen tease here at the end.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The 6z GFS looks similar to the 0z for the Wednesday event. Maybe we can pull something out of the hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 My favorite! Leeside enhancement! Let's do this!Sent from my moto e5 supra using TapatalkStill there at 06Z. Winning!Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 RAH gives us a little hope. It's all we got: The EC, GEM, and NAM all remain dry through Thursday. However, the latest 2 runs of the operational GFS, along with a majority of the GEFS members have trended wetter Monday night and into Tuesday; with an area of precip blossoming east of the mountains, in response to shortwave perturbations embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft and resultant weak spin up of a sfc low across SE US. Will keep forecast dry for now, but will closely monitor as temps aloft and at the sfc would be sufficiently cold enough to support some light snow(liquid equivalent ~.10") across the NC Piedmont. cP airmass in place will begin to moderate on Thursday as the parent high across the area begins to break down, under zonal flow aloft. Significant model differences arise by Friday and into the weekend, as a series of shortwave troughs with Pacific origins eject east across the CONUS. While it looks like the arrival of the deeper moisture will hold off until Friday or even Saturday, like precip could spread into the area as early as Thursday night/early Friday morning. Given antecedent cP airmass in place, favorable nocturnal timing of precip across the area Thursday night/Friday morning, could support a brief period of frozen or freezing precip at onset, before changing over to all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 straight runs of the GFS showing something Tuesday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Doesn't seem to have any other support at the moment, but I don't have access to euro/eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said: 3 straight runs of the GFS showing something Tuesday night And the "jackpot zone" (if you can call 1.5 inches a "jackpot") is in the lee of the Apps in each case. I think that's good. Amirite? Or, should I concede to the conventional wisdom that you never want to be in the "jackpot zone" three or four days out? I'm just gonna grasp at any straws thrown my way right now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: And the "jackpot zone" (if you can call 1.5 inches a "jackpot") is in the lee of the Apps in each case. I think that's good. Amirite? Or, should I concede to the conventional wisdom that you never want to be in the "jackpot zone" three or four days out? I'm just gonna grasp at any straws thrown my way right now... I didn't realize we were paddling the same BOAT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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