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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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It would certainly be nice but I can't bet against the pattern. The pattern all winter is for the cold press to be mush less than modeled in the medium range, especially at the mid levels. I can't think of a single time when the mid levels were colder than modeled. Been several times where I was supposed to see at least a sleet pellet or two and got nothing but rain. Even the Dec storm was more sleet than anticipated for my area. The storm track trend has been further north and the surface temps have been underwhwelming all winter. As much as I would love see some snow I just can't see the indeces lining up all the sudden as we head into met Spring. I'll stay tuned to see what happens but the towel is ready to go and I've been holding it for a long time. Verbatim on that GFS, we'd need a high to the north or it's gonna cut again like all the others. The FV3 has a high but it's sliding and too weak. 

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The last few runs of the GEFS have had about half of the members with snow in north GA at about 240, 1/3 of the EPS have small amounts. So it is on my radar barely but given how lousy this winter has been so far not optimistic- still just basically waiting for more thunderstorms.

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59 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Remember that cold blast the models were showing a few weeks back, it had highs in the teens for NC!?? And then the actual temps verified at 5-10 degrees below normal!? How do y’all think a 10 day , early March cold snap will work out?

I don't know we're pretty good at getting cold rain to verify in March and April.

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^^A good run for the euro. Again don't look at the details; all that matters is it shows a storm with available cold air (in the area). 

But if you do want to see the details (which will change next run), here you go:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019022412/north-carolina/significant-weather/20190306-0600z.html

 

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