jburns Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 hours ago, CaryWx said: Was it over your head? Nothing is over my head. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 So much for the March 4/5 threat. Looks like it has fizzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 WINTER CANCEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: WINTER CANCEL. Unless you’re JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 I don't want to see you NC people complaining. Ill take 50 and rain any day. It's sticky and 90's here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: So much for the March 4/5 threat. Looks like it has fizzled. Did you look at the FV3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 For what it's worth, the FV3 has this on the 12Z run for March 4th... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Yeah there is one more shot looks like between March ~2nd-5th. Have a feeling at best it will be like yesterday and today in the Triangle. Just the way this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 43 minutes ago, ragtop50 said: For what it's worth, the FV3 has this on the 12Z run for March 4th... GFS is just suppressed which is kinda where you want it this far out....really need the Euro to pick up on it though to think this is gonna be a legit threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Have we really seen a low track across Florida suppressed all winter where we remained cold? Doubt this will happen. We get cutters (west) much more in this scenario and hope it does not trend that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 I see the 12Z FV3 had it back... at 00Z or 06Z it was gone. We will see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 It would certainly be nice but I can't bet against the pattern. The pattern all winter is for the cold press to be mush less than modeled in the medium range, especially at the mid levels. I can't think of a single time when the mid levels were colder than modeled. Been several times where I was supposed to see at least a sleet pellet or two and got nothing but rain. Even the Dec storm was more sleet than anticipated for my area. The storm track trend has been further north and the surface temps have been underwhwelming all winter. As much as I would love see some snow I just can't see the indeces lining up all the sudden as we head into met Spring. I'll stay tuned to see what happens but the towel is ready to go and I've been holding it for a long time. Verbatim on that GFS, we'd need a high to the north or it's gonna cut again like all the others. The FV3 has a high but it's sliding and too weak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said: WINTER CANCEL. Technically our Dec snow was in the fall, so we never really had a winter to begin with. So I think WINTER FAIL might be more appropriate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 6Z GFS tried to show something on March 6... FV3 still shows a signal for March 4/5, but it is weaker with less QPF for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 The last few runs of the GEFS have had about half of the members with snow in north GA at about 240, 1/3 of the EPS have small amounts. So it is on my radar barely but given how lousy this winter has been so far not optimistic- still just basically waiting for more thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Remember that cold blast the models were showing a few weeks back, it had highs in the teens for NC!?? And then the actual temps verified at 5-10 degrees below normal!? How do y’all think a 10 day , early March cold snap will work out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 59 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Remember that cold blast the models were showing a few weeks back, it had highs in the teens for NC!?? And then the actual temps verified at 5-10 degrees below normal!? How do y’all think a 10 day , early March cold snap will work out? I don't know we're pretty good at getting cold rain to verify in March and April. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 12Z FV3 showing a little snow for central NC around March 6. GFS is suppressed. What's Euro/EPS showing for this timeframe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 The 12z GFS/GEFS/FV3 suite is good for NC/SC around March 4-6... starting to show something promising with consistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Yeah, that was a good run for both the GFS, Fv3 and CMC. Can't look at the details (past day 7); just know a storm with available cold (in the area) is showing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Yeah, that was a good run for both the GFS, Fv3 and CMC. Can't look at the details (past day 7); just know a storm with available cold (in the area) is showing. Any support from the 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, broken024 said: Woah, I will take that in a heartbeat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 MA folks worried about suppression as shown on GEFS. Often a good sign for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, broken024 said: Subfreezing 850's down to Mexico, but of course cold rain form eastern NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 ^^A good run for the euro. Again don't look at the details; all that matters is it shows a storm with available cold air (in the area). But if you do want to see the details (which will change next run), here you go: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019022412/north-carolina/significant-weather/20190306-0600z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 49 minutes ago, broken024 said: Good to see cold but that looks like backside cold after the low and precip pass; ie cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 24 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Good to see cold but that looks like backside cold after the low and precip pass; ie cold chasing moisture. Nope, it's a gulf low with a perfect track. Cold is already established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Nope, it's a gulf low with a perfect track. Cold is already established. and wherever it isnt snowing, that thing is about to pop a comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Pretty map today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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