CaryWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 18z GFS came in warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 39 minutes ago, CaryWx said: 18z GFS came in warmer. This sums up winter 18-19 pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 That Is A Whole Lot Of Rain Being Output By The 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Greg Fishel out at WRAL. What a miserable way to end a miserable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 36 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Greg Fishel out at WRAL. What a miserable way to end a miserable winter. First I heard of this. What the heck happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, cbmclean said: First I heard of this. What the heck happened? Greg Fishel announcement http://wr.al/1EK7j Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 March 1980 https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview Up to 30” eastern NC and snowed in the teens 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 fv3 to become officially operational on March 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, wake4est said: fv3 to become officially operational on March 20. Winter over on March 21st. So it has exactly 1 day to accurately forecast winter this year. It's either gonna be all right or all wrong for 2019. Such suspense! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Winter over on March 21st. So it has exactly 1 day to accurately forecast winter this year. It's either gonna be all right or all wrong for 2019. Such suspense! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 5 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Greg Fishel out at WRAL. What a miserable way to end a miserable winter. Damn, I will really miss him. One of the best. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbyC Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Anyone remember the winter of 2012-2013? It was quite mild as well, and it was a year where an El Nino was predicted but did not develop. It seems like this winter has played out much like that one. Back in this past autumn, it looked an El Nino was a slam dunk. However, this current winter has actually been more Enso Neutral as, at least atmospherically, an El Nino, up to that point, has not really developed. With the chilly November we had, I was actually not surprised if this winter could potentially turn out a bit like 2012-2013 did (November 2012 was a little below normal as well). In other words, December and January could potentially turn mild despite a colder than normal November, and therefore, the colder than normal forecasts wouldn't as likely pan out. I think the main reason why February was seasonable or slightly colder than normal in 2013 was that we had a Greenland block come in the back end of that winter. Without that, February would have probably been mild as well. Also, meteorologist Ben Noll back this past summer had called the apparent developing El Nino a "head fake." In other words, he did not think one would develop for the 2018-2019 winter. Back this past September as well, there were some doubts as well about the El Nino. https://www.beefmagazine.com/outlook/doubts-starting-creep-about-el-ni-o-winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Since winter is probably over here, the focus turns to heavy rain, check out some of these GEFS totals here- could be historic flooding if we really get 10-13" of rain like some of the members have..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 12 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Greg Fishel out at WRAL. What a miserable way to end a miserable winter. Yeah, Can't help but reflect back to a chat we had with him a while back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Cheeznado said: Since winter is probably over here, the focus turns to heavy rain, check out some of these GEFS totals here- could be historic flooding if we really get 10-13" of rain like some of the members have..... 06Z 2/14/2019 guidance from the ICON and GFS suggest the heaviest axis of rain will be north of Atlanta. 0Z CMC was also north of Atlanta with the heaviest precip. This seems to suggest the affects on Atlanta will be marginal. Would you agree? Also, what mechanisms would be in play to drop the axis south? It seems to me that the SE ridge is depicted as strengthening through day 10. Wouldn't this push the best lift north as well? I'm thinking mild to warm with maybe up to an 1" of rain for Atlanta would be realistic in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Good thing that December storm was a good one here. Otherwise, I'd be totally blanked for this winter. And it seems once again we had a big storm here and then nothing at all afterwards. It's been that way since 2000. We either have nothing, a couple of decent storms, or one big storm and then nothing at all afterwards. I should have known that was it once we got the big one in December. Oh, and the FV3 was the best for the December storm, but it has been awful the past month in showing fantasy storms in the 7 to 10 day period that never happen. I guess we have severe weather to look forward to now. Hopefully, the models will be better with the severe chances than they were with winter storm chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Good thing that December storm was a good one here. Otherwise, I'd be totally blanked for this winter. And it seems once again we had a big storm here and then nothing at all afterwards. It's been that way since 2000. We either have nothing, a couple of decent storms, or one big storm and then nothing at all afterwards. I should have known that was it once we got the big one in December. Oh, and the FV3 was the best for the December storm, but it has been awful the past month in showing fantasy storms in the 7 to 10 day period that never happen. I guess we have severe weather to look forward to now. Hopefully, the models will be better with the severe chances than they were with winter storm chances. The 12z FV3 did come in a little colder for next weeks potential event. Would be significant ice for our region. But, I agree it hasn't done well lately. Freezing rain totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 34 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The 12z FV3 did come in a little colder for next weeks potential event. Would be significant ice for our region. But, I agree it hasn't done well lately. Freezing rain totals: FV3 is the cold outlier. Imagine that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 For those in Southern Wake, this winter has pretty much been a blank. I had like half of inch of slush that was gone by mid-day and nothing with the second round later that day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 With its performance beyond 5 days, it is ludicrous to think you’d replace any model with the FV3. It has repeatedly shown big storms for central NC in the 6-14 range that the others have not shown for the most part. Maybe I’m just judging my mby, but it’s been terrible. Way too cold with cold and wintry weather. Has it performed better elsewhere? TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: The 12z FV3 did come in a little colder for next weeks potential event. Would be significant ice for our region. But, I agree it hasn't done well lately. Freezing rain totals: Hard pass on that one if that was our only option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 1 hour ago, tarheelwx said: With its performance beyond 5 days, it is ludicrous to think you’d replace any model with the FV3. It has repeatedly shown big storms for central NC in the 6-14 range that the others have not shown for the most part. Maybe I’m just judging my mby, but it’s been terrible. Way too cold with cold and wintry weather. Has it performed better elsewhere? TW I want to say the FV3 handled the December storm pretty well... We were tracking it for 7-10 days and it never really wavered. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Looking back the writing was on the wall. El Nino struggled to develop and while Nov and early Dec were colder than average and we did get a snow, the Pac quickly showed its hand for the winter in mid Dec. Tropical forcing was all wrong, strong Pac jet and when the EPO tanked the ridge was too far west and allowed a war. I knew in Dec Jan was toast. Remember saying it on here. But I thought we had plenty of time to save Feb and then the Nino faded. That's a couple years lately El Nino has completely failed. I find it amazing in a warming climate and high SST's we cant even get a legit Nino anymore. Cant remember one since 09-10 that wasn't the crap fest super Nino of a couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I agree it did well, but so did most other models. Didn’t the FV3 show some of the further south solutions that raised hopes for S NC down into SC? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 Snow means don’t verify but I bet rain means do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 39 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Snow means don’t verify but I bet rain means do That and a 10 day heatwave, will verify 99% of the time! 7-10 cold outbreaks and or snow/ice storms, this winter especially, 1% chance at best! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 06Z 2/14/2019 guidance from the ICON and GFS suggest the heaviest axis of rain will be north of Atlanta. 0Z CMC was also north of Atlanta with the heaviest precip. This seems to suggest the affects on Atlanta will be marginal. Would you agree? Also, what mechanisms would be in play to drop the axis south? It seems to me that the SE ridge is depicted as strengthening through day 10. Wouldn't this push the best lift north as well? I'm thinking mild to warm with maybe up to an 1" of rain for Atlanta would be realistic in that scenario. I disagree, GEFS, EPS have been very consistent with at least 5" for the whole event. Would be extremely surprised if ATL only got an inch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 RAH Friday afternoon still hints at the slight possibility of a mix Tuesday night. In general, this pattern will favor high-chance and even likely PoPs during much of the long term period, with QPF estimates of 1-3 inches of rain from Sun through Fri. The best chance for any pause in this wet pattern may be late Monday into early Tuesday as we briefly see some drying in the wake of early Monday's cold fropa. Otherwise, temps should be warm enough this entire period to preclude any P-type concerns other than rain, except for a "very brief" period Tuesday night when forecast soundings over our western Piedmont counties suggest it may be barely cold enough for a "very brief" period of wintry mix with the rain. Of course we'll be evaluating that potential during the coming days, but for now, expecting most if not all rain as p-type during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 The sounding isn’t too far from isothermal on Tuesday Evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 57 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The sounding isn’t too far from isothermal on Tuesday Evening. Tropical tidbits snowmap shows accumulating snow here but the surface maps just show rain... kind of weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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