BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Looks like 12z GFS will be to far suppressed... from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks like 12z GFS will be to far suppressed... from what I can tell. Right where we want it! So we can utter JB’s and DT’s favorite phrase: it’s gonna come North”! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 12z GEFS with a strong signal of a storm next weekend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: Robert just made a great post on Facebook about the possible threat and what lies ahead. Robert who? Where is the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 12z Euro looks a lot like the ICON this run at 500mb with west coast ridge spike dropping the northern stream down into the southern plains and linking up with the southern wave. Not a heavy event, but temps look like what we've seen with many of our wintry storms of late....i.e. wintry along and northwest of GSP to CLT to RDU 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Euro says 2-4 west of 77 in NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z Euro looks a lot like the ICON this run at 500mb with west coast ridge spike dropping the northern stream down into the southern plains and linking up with the southern wave. Not a heavy event, but temps look like what we've seen with many storms of late....i.e. wintry along and northwest of GSP to CLT to RDU Kinda like a lighter version of the canadian from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Euro winners are the area around Mt. Mourne/Davidson and Southern Burke County. Both of those areas are just shy of half a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 In general about 3-5" along a line from Clemson Agricultural College to Chapel Hill plus points N&W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Euro winners are the area around Mt. Mourne/Davidson and Southern Burke County. Both of those areas are just shy of half a foot. Southern VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 12z Euro 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Southern VA? lighter than NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Lots to sort out as usual, but this does look like a viable light to moderate wintry threat with damming high to the north and slider type southern low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: How do we want it to happen , to get more cold and snow? The trough over SE Canada out ahead of the storm to trend stronger and farther south, with the associated damming sfc high building in behind that trough to extend more cold air to the south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Ignore that last post. Having technical difficulties with phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Icy Hot said: Robert who? Where is the link? follow the WxSouth FB page to see his comments. Met out of Shelby and a good one. Has a pay site for more detaiis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, griteater said: The trough over SE Canada out ahead of the storm to trend stronger and farther south, with the associated damming sfc high building in behind that trough to extend more cold air to the south That’s kind of what happened with the December storm, the confluence got stronger on modeling as we got closer, most models had a 1035 or so for that storm, and cold was marginal. Most are modeling this one as a 1040/41, maybe this will trend colder!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Definitely looking promising for some sort of wintery event. Thinking/hoping that CAD is a little stronger and more folks can get in the game. Big difference from the last event is this is popping up much closer to go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 It's definitely not a major event but it would push places like GSP and Charlotte above average on snow for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That’s kind of what happened with the December storm, the confluence got stronger on modeling as we got closer, most models had a 1035 or so for that storm, and cold was marginal. Most are modeling this one as a 1040/41, maybe this will trend colder!? You would think this would trend colder, at least on the surface. I keep on harping on the initial cold, but with dew points falling into the teens before this system arrives the CAD that does set up will have a better chance of verifying colder and farther south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: You would think this would trend colder, at least on the surface. I keep on harping on the initial cold, but with dew points falling into the teens before this system arrives the CAD that does set up will have a better chance of verifying colder and farther south. Agreed. My gut feeling is it trends wetter just going by seasonal trends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: You would think this would trend colder, at least on the surface. I keep on harping on the initial cold, but with dew points falling into the teens before this system arrives the CAD that does set up will have a better chance of verifying colder and farther south. For the best winter storms and wedges, don’t we want single digit DP’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 hours ago, FallsLake said: Looks like the 12z ICON is on board for a winter storm. At hr 156 has the snow line from SW NC to Raleigh then Rocky Mount. It only shows rain/frozen so I'm sure there is some ice below that line. Edit: Has the surface freezing line from Greenville SC to south of Charlotte, to south/east of Raleigh. 2 New theorem proposal. Anytime a model, no matter how far out, has the snow line through Raleigh it should be taken seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 QPF for MBY this run went from two or three hundreds to three tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: For the best winter storms and wedges, don’t we want single digit DP’s? Single digits (on GFS) do get into western NC briefly. This is going to be a colder surface then last time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, jburns said: New theorem proposal. Anytime a model, no matter how far out, has the snow line through Raleigh it should be taken seriously. It seems that has been the rule for the last three years(..at least). I keep wondering when we get another big eastern NC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, griteater said: 12z Euro Has me on the edge like last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Line through Raleigh, checks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 18z GFS coming in... looking good... especially I-40 North... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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