Waiting on snow Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 32 minutes ago, CaryWx said: 18z gfs ops run never brings cold back but hey it's only one run Stop drinking the kool-aid man. Winters over down here. I'm sure the Mid Atlantic will score but us? Not convinced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 At this point I'm just hoping we drop below freezing again for several nights in a row. Long range models not looking great, bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Turning on the pool heater this weekend. . Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Hammer said: Turning on the pool heater this weekend. . Pro Be sure to drop some pre-emergent in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Is there any hope? This is depressing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Is there any hope? This is depressing. Punting till 2/15... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, WeatherNC said: Punting till 2/15... Need to get a better boot in that kick 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Last 10 days of February should offer some oppprtunity. When has a modeled raging SER been short lived? It will take a little more than half of February to chew it up and spit it out. One more shot at a Hail Mary after that. GL. May be odds be ever in your favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 The 6z GFS and FV3 both show some ice/snow for central NC northwards on days 7/8. At this point I wouldn't get excited. We still need more model agreement, get closer to the event, and wrap out heads around the idea of getting a storm where it rains first then changes over to wintery precip; which we know is difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 hours ago, WarmNose said: Last 10 days of February should offer some oppprtunity. When has a modeled raging SER been short lived? It will take a little more than half of February to chew it up and spit it out. One more shot at a Hail Mary after that. GL. May be odds be ever in your favor We’ve had some of our best snows in March! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 11 hours ago, LithiaWx said: Is there any hope? This is depressing. Not much. Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however, I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them. I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Be sure to drop some pre-emergent in thereLolWill be dropping myself in there. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 Good news snow lovers! Some of my S.C. friends told me that WYFF said yesterday that the cold weather is over for this winter and an early spring is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 12z GFS operational finding a storm next Sunday for NC. It's game on...for 6 more hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 28 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Good news snow lovers! Some of my S.C. friends told me that WYFF said yesterday that the cold weather is over for this winter and an early spring is coming. I'm sure that's a false statement. I'm sure winter weather is over. But we all know the NAO will flip negative mid March through April. It won't be cold enough for snow but 40 degree rain it'll be. Spring won't spring until May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, CaryWx said: 12z GFS operational finding a storm next Sunday for NC. It's game on...for 6 more hrs! I accept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 hours ago, Lookout said: Not much. Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however, I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them. I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it. I have heard theoretical physicists claim if they can reconcile the theory of relatively and quantum theory they will have the answer to everything. Well, if that is accomplished I want to see them use that information for a dead on accurate winter forecast for the southeast. Kind of looking cold and potential for frozen precip in NC the 2nd week in Feb to me per the GFS run I just looked at. But I guess I didn't see what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, gman said: Not true. They actually said the opposite. What may I ask are you looking at? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Canadian has a semblance of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said: I'm sure that's a false statement. I'm sure winter weather is over. But we all know the NAO will flip negative mid March through April. It won't be cold enough for snow in SC but 40 degree rain it'll be. Spring won't spring until May! Fixed it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Its over now despite what the models say. Our groundhog friend said so. I'm going with Phil. #teamphil #groundhogwx #g-hogsloveridges 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 5 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: Good news snow lovers! Some of my S.C. friends told me that WYFF said yesterday that the cold weather is over for this winter and an early spring is coming. Not true. They actually said the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 hours ago, CaryWx said: What may I ask are you looking at? Sorry. I replied to the wrong post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 Sorry. Just being sarcastic with something I saw posted on Facebook earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 GFS lost storm, hands baton to V3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 10 hours ago, Lookout said: Not much. Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however, I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them. I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it. I agree with this mostly, with the caveat that I’d argue that you actually have better than coin flip odds if you go with persistence and go warm. For whatever reason, warm wins now. Something is going on that essentially renders analogs of yesteryear useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 0z GFS has a nice wedge, moisture is MIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Long term looking great, if you like heat and rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 chaos huh? Yeah, seems the models never get this wrong very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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