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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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17 hours ago, griteater said:

Chicago goes from a HIGH temperature of -11 on Wednesday to rain on Saturday night / Sunday.  This winter proving to be an equal opportunity fail boat. 

ftOnN7s.gif

I'm originally from Chicago. Winter never fails. It ended late last year in May - literally was in the 30s consistently until then and came on early with a foot of snow in early November. Now all time record cold. They just had 8 inches of snow Sunday into Monday. Rain and temps in the mid 30s is common. But they have at least 2 solid months of winter to go. 

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Just now, WarmNose said:

It’s out there but the 12z GEFS has a stout WAR for this timeframe..

Yea, it's definitely not something to be even remotely optimistic about considering how we're supposed to be in a blockbuster pattern right now, but it's still almost better than seeing nothing.

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Alright ill join the pattern change chase. Right now its Feb 7th per gfs and euro op. Not the ensembles I know, but hour 220-230 have a storm going over NC and ots , behind, a big fat high building in. I checked this last night on euro and its held serve, so lets see if it can get under 5 days by this weekend. If,big if the mjo gets a move on out of phase 6 into 7, which its supose to ,then this times out right. 

My hunch is for my area we needed a reshuffle in order to score. And if we do score again its gonna have to time it with a cad HP sliding into place , synched with a gulf low. Just like December. This pv counter clockwise wheel over the lakes want work.

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4 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Alright ill join the pattern change chase. Right now its Feb 7th per gfs and euro op. Not the ensembles I know, but hour 220-230 have a storm going over NC and ots , behind, a big fat high building in. I checked this last night on euro and its held serve, so lets see if it can get under 5 days by this weekend. If,big if the mjo gets a move on out of phase 6 into 7, which its supose to ,then this times out right. 

My hunch is for my area we needed a reshuffle in order to score. And if we do score again its gonna have to time it with a cad HP sliding into place , synched with a gulf low. Just like December. This pv counter clockwise wheel over the lakes want work.

We may not be playing with an empty chamber just yet...

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Yea Gefs was only one out of 4 that looked awful to me around this time and biggest reason is the lack of west coast ridge. If we NA trough or I call it the bowling ball trough again, I have reservations about our chances. There are ways to make it work good for us but also alot of ways where we sit through past patterns of cold ,warmup and rain then right back cold. I just wish we could get a nice ridge on west coast and true split flow pattern. Then throw in just the slightest bit of help Atlantic side would be icing on the cake.

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Now that we are getting pretty strong consensus the warm up coming is brief and Feb 8/9 is our flip back time to winter. Time to start watching for opportunity to see if the window is open. I've seen a FV3 run from two days ago slap a fantasy event up during this time and it was  the same reason the GFS has this at 12z today. Front comes through and hangs up along Gulf Coast. Then we get over runing potential with Our Must Have HP hanging out over NE ( Theres a 1045 HP sliding W-E behind that GL LP). Heres' a vort map to be watching for what kind of energy will be around. Rooting for a surface low here to form. Doesn't have to be some big beast, but the opportunity is there for the taken. On the surface this vort map is just a very thin line of snow way down Miss/AL. We know we are gonna have a front come through next Thursday/ 7-8 days away. Next thing to nail down is watch and see if it keeps stalling along gulf coast. If that's there next several days on models, then look for the energy on vort maps/trends and see if it can throw the qpf over the top into cold air.

500hv.conus.png

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I'm seeing 2 events show up on LR gfs.  One around the 13th and one on the 15th.  Way out there though and may disappear and come back several times.  [300hrs+ and all]  This could morph into a single Valentine's Day storm eventually so I do see that timeframe with some potential if the models keep it up.

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