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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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RAH says...

A complicated pattern evolves late Friday into Saturday as 
energy in both the southern and northern streams move across the
eastern U.S. while an extension of a strong, cold high pressure
system over eastern Canada extends into the region. Confidence 
on the timing and the extent of moisture is limited but some 
wintry weather is possible next weekend. For now have introduced
slight PoPs with a mention of rain or snow across the 
climatologically favored locations on Saturday morning.
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Well the tropical convection over the Maritime Continent and the Western Pacific has calmed down over the past week.

eegAeiB.gif

54dcJ5B.gif

 

If we don't see colder conditions develop during the 2nd half of January, it may be time to just throw the hands up as the tropical forcing should be more favorable then.  Februarys are almost always cool in the east during El Nino, but: 1) we haven't come close to locking in typical El Nino-like ocean-atmosphere coupling, and related, 2) the tropical forcing (MJO) may not be in the colder phases during that timeframe (7-8-1-2).  On the image below, you can see the GFS FCST taking the VP portion of the MJO thru phases 7-8-1 during Jan 4-17 (the green line).

oVNLRzg.gif

 

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25 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Grit,  The MJO could loop tightly right back inside the COD and pop out in phase 6 or 7 though right?

During an El Nino, we would expect to see more periods than not of below normal convection over the Maritime Continent (phases 7-8-1-2) from fall thru winter, but since late Sept, we've seen a lot of cycling of the MJO/tropical forcing - the lower stratosphere -QBO / low solar combo that hailstorm mentioned and the weakened strat PV are likely contributing to the enhanced MJO cycling that we've seen.

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FV3-GFS continues to show a NE GA, Up State SC, central/western NC, and northward snow threat for next weekend.

From RAH:

The models are then in good agreement that the aforementioned mid- upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, with a reloading of the longwave trough from cntl Canada to the middle Atlantic states through the weekend. At the same time, a srn stream one is forecast to migrate across the srn US. Though uncertainty with respect to the timing, amplitude, and possible phasing of those features is high, the overall pattern will be one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with sufficient cold air in place to present precipitation type concerns across cntl and especially wrn NC by Sat- Sat night.

aaaa1.jpg

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

FV3-GFS continues to show a NE GA, Up State SC, central/western NC, and northward snow threat for next weekend.

From RAH:

The models are then in good agreement that the aforementioned mid- upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, with a reloading of the longwave trough from cntl Canada to the middle Atlantic states through the weekend. At the same time, a srn stream one is forecast to migrate across the srn US. Though uncertainty with respect to the timing, amplitude, and possible phasing of those features is high, the overall pattern will be one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with sufficient cold air in place to present precipitation type concerns across cntl and especially wrn NC by Sat- Sat night.

aaaa1.jpg

Gotta love repeating patterns if you live in that area right? As for me, cold rain as always 

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18 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Gotta love repeating patterns if you live in that area right? As for me, cold rain as always 

I still think the actual pattern change is going to be late this month into February. If we get this storm (as depicted above), it will be another perfectly timed event. Once we get a "real" pattern shift to a predominant cold pattern for the eastern US, that's when folks down east (including you) will have better chances.  

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Hopefully today we see more model agreement on this next weekends potential. One thing I really like is we get cold air in place before the precip comes in. Also on the FV3-GFS it lost the lakes low (from 0z) and showed more of a CAD signature. If we get a good CAD setup expect more transition precip types to start showing up in later runs. 

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The models are going about the winter threat in different ways. CMC and FV3 are dropping in the northern stream whereas the Euro and GFS keep the streams more separated...but each camp at the surface has the gulf to SE coast low.  The surface high and damming setup is better with the Euro/GFS camp IMO as the northern stream interaction on the CMC/FV3 brings in more Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Low influence 

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

The models are going about the winter threat in different ways. CMC and FV3 are dropping in the northern stream whereas the Euro and GFS keep the streams more separated...but each camp at the surface has the gulf to SE coast low.  The surface high and damming setup is better with the Euro/GFS camp IMO as the northern stream interaction on the CMC/FV3 brings in more Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Low influence 

How do we want it to happen , to get more cold and snow?

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