Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, gearhead302 said: Don't post this stuff...... orangeburgwx will have a storm thread up within the hour.... DOn't fall for the Euro clown maps! I have before - they're about as useful as a DGEX (ahem, Feb 2014...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 yea this is pretty close to game on for eastern carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: yea this is pretty close to game on for eastern carolinas But what are temperatures like? Im betting its all rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: yea this is pretty close to game on for eastern carolinas At hr 72 it's bombing off the coast, but the precip shield is not as expansive as you would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, ryanconway63 said: But what are temperatures like? Im betting its all rain. temps are 35-40 at the surface....but its plenty cold aloft.....would need rates to be high enough to overcome.....light precip wont do it.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, downeastnc said: temps are 35-40 at the surface....but its plenty cold aloft.....would need rates to be high enough to overcome.....light precip wont do it.... something to keep an eye on, even for eastern virginia. those are some pretty major shifts/trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 looks like precip makes it into extreme southeast virginia.....be interesting to see if the trend continues tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, FallsLake said: At hr 72 it's bombing off the coast, but the precip shield is not as expansive as you would expect. If we could just get that low to off the coast of Brunswick GA and bomb there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 With the low in the Great Lakes, wouldn’t Synoptics tug this thing even further NW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 NS captures SS on 18z Nam. Just wish SS would be a little further north coming of Texas coast. It digs to deep from AZ till GOM before it gets captured. Oh this is so so close. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 We always see storms move NW at the last second... For once let it work in our favor : ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Here was the Canadian at the same time today. Notice the isobars are a litllet flatter out in front coming across NC. Want them the sharpen up more SW to NE. The storm is wound up more/phased energy on the 18z Nam is whats causing this. If it can hook up phase eitheir quicker, futher north or stronger, then the trough orientation will change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 The RDPS (which is the Short Range Canadian model and pretty good only goes out to 48. The pic above is the GDPS or Long Range Canadian Global. I wanted to post the Short range RDPS but Pivotal has the area we need to see botched out o figure. However I can make enough of it to see it looks probably as sexy as the 18z nam if not more. If this rabbit chase doesn't pan out. Good news is we have at least 2 more on its tale coming up mid week and next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, gearhead302 said: Don't post this stuff...... orangeburgwx will have a storm thread up within the hour.... Not this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow dog said: At least until the next Model runs, or when Orangeburgwx starts a thread about it... As if that 11" will verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Nice seeing the Euro with the Feb 2-3 storm, and FV3 was close. Not sure why anyone would be pessimistic about this time period in general. There is some decent pattern support for it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Sunday, Feb the 3rd at 13:00 — Main run: 7.1 in — Ensemble mean: 0.1 in Maximum: 2.6 in 90% Percentile: 0 in Minimum: 0 in 10% Percentile: 0 in All times are local time (EST) Current run: 12z Now you see? That ensemble mean shows no support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Sorta feels like the Euro and GFS have switched places with the frontal snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Sorta feels like the Euro and GFS have switched places with the frontal snow They have, big time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Can some one post the NAM end run pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 36 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Sunday, Feb the 3rd at 13:00 — Main run: 7.1 in — Ensemble mean: 0.1 in Maximum: 2.6 in 90% Percentile: 0 in Minimum: 0 in 10% Percentile: 0 in All times are local time (EST) Current run: 12z Now you see? That ensemble mean shows no support. They don’t support the snow right now. But there is generally support for precipitation from a gulf system at that time. No reason to worry about anything else at this point. I just want to see a system showing up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Lmao TWC gives me 1-3" of accumation on the 2nd/3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, griteater said: Nice seeing the Euro with the Feb 2-3 storm, and FV3 was close. Not sure why anyone would be pessimistic about this time period in general. There is some decent pattern support for it Agreed 100%. Im chasing unicorns with Sunday deal and mid week cold front flizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 hours ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said: Somebody please tell Cold Rain to lower the dang snow shields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Somebody please tell Cold Rain to lower the dang snow shields. Falling snow is the only thing that impacts snow shield strength, unfortunately. Also unfortunately, the 0z Nam did us no favors. You usually get one Nam run that sucks you in with heavy qpf or favorable trends. The 18z was probably it. But then again, maybe the 6z bounces backs. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Gfs shifted precip west again vs 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Also the Weds arctic front looks a little more stout with precip in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Not this time... Good , no move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Someone answered me. Thanks. I tried to do the like button, but I didn’t download tapatalk, and I have no idea what to do with my photosynthesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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