DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6z gfs and fv3 both made sizable shifts west w/ precip for monday. still within range 66 hrs out to see precip make it further inland if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 From what I saw posted elsewhere, 6z EPS looks even better than 0z for Carolina folks. Maybe this isn’t a drill folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, ajr said: From what I saw posted elsewhere, 6z EPS looks even better than 0z for Carolina folks. Maybe this isn’t a drill folks! yea it does, precip inland on the coast and a few members have big dogs offshore throwing precip as far west as the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: yea it does, precip inland on the coast and a few members have big dogs offshore throwing precip as far west as the mtns. See for us eastern guys those members showing snow that far west are probably killers for us east of 95 but I havent seen them. Sadly when we see our biggest storms the precip rarely gets west of rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 57 minutes ago, Amos83 said: for one of the few times in winter I'm rooting hard for the northwest trend! I feel dirty for saying it I feel dirty about it too... Considering where I live is 95% torch with a NW trend, this is the one time I actually need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: yea it does, precip inland on the coast and a few members have big dogs offshore throwing precip as far west as the mtns. How far inland for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 A few more tweaks in the right direction is going to make a huge difference in the ultimate outcome. It is really that close in the upper levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Still need cold air and so far temps on the models are not going to cut it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Still need cold air and so far temps on the models are not going to cut it. It’s a storm that depends on dynamical cooling and a strong cyclone to drag 850s down. Need a phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Column is cold, guys. Surface layer is above freezing, initially. Unless you get a coastal hugger or inland tracker, you won't have to worry much about a warm nose. Probably won't get that far west, though. Light precipitation will probably be rain. Heavy precip will most likely be snow. Still too close to call either way, but the trends have been pretty good. We're running out of time, but it's good that things are quite close to something as opposed to needing a 1000 miles of corrections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Some may be confused but we have two threats it seems. One late this weekend and one mid week. These appear to be affecting two different areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Column is cold, guys. Surface layer is above freezing, initially. Unless you get a coastal hugger or inland tracker, you won't have to worry much about a warm nose. Probably won't get that far west, though. Light precipitation will probably be rain. Heavy precip will most likely be snow. Still too close to call either way, but the trends have been pretty good. We're running out of time, but it's good that things are quite close to something as opposed to needing a 1000 miles of corrections. Agreed ,12z runs on deck. Let's see where this goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 hours ago, LithiaWx said: Gfs much wetter for north Ga for the potential Tuesday event gfs and euro ensembles look pretty decent for the nw half. ....but of course areas to the east of 85 look pretty much screwed with the leeside screwzone in full effect...which means i'll likely have to make a trip to see it. But an inch or two looks possible and north/west of an atlanta to gainesville to clayton line. In fact some of the euro ensembles show several inches for the mountains. Would love to see this thing put down a few inches ahead of this arctic airmass to maximize the low temp potential. Although the euro doesn't look nearly as impressive with the outbreak as it once did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business. yea it made a big jump. would be really excited if i was on the coast. still hoping for that nw trend to continue to zero hour for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business. RGEM has interaction much earlier as well. GFS will be telling if this trend will continue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business. Falls, Was the shift due to the storm strengthening/bigger? 6z gfs had it as a 999 of the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Which potential threat is this one? 4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 One thing to note, the NAM has been behind quite a bit here, so it's kind of playing catch-up. Need to watch the FV-3, UK, and Euro. Maybe the GFS and CMC after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, mryanwilkes said: Which potential threat is this one? 4 days out? Sunday night/Monday-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6z gfs yesterday vs 6z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, mryanwilkes said: Which potential threat is this one? 4 days out? Early Monday (1/28) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Falls, Was the shift due to the storm strengthening/bigger? 6z gfs had it as a 999 of the coast It's a little stronger but not much. Looks like the eastern trough is holding back some allowing the storm to turn more northward. Edit: and comparing the RGEM to the NAM at 48 hours you can see it digging a little more to the west near La. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Still need cold air and so far temps on the models are not going to cut it. 28 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Column is cold, guys. Surface layer is above freezing, initially. Unless you get a coastal hugger or inland tracker, you won't have to worry much about a warm nose. Probably won't get that far west, though. Light precipitation will probably be rain. Heavy precip will most likely be snow. Still too close to call either way, but the trends have been pretty good. We're running out of time, but it's good that things are quite close to something as opposed to needing a 1000 miles of corrections. For Sunday/Monday, the models are going about this storm in slightly different ways. The Euro is keying on the southern wave in the gulf and detaches it a bit from the northern stream as it moves out of the gulf then northeast into the eastern Carolinas - this evolution is on the warmer side. The FV3 and UKMet are keying on the northern stream wave that drops down into Bama, then east into the Carolinas, while moreso depositing the southern wave in the gulf - this evolution is a bit colder. The GFS is kind of a blend of the two camps. I would root for the FV3/UKMet solution, but with a stronger dive and "bottoming out" of the northern stream wave. There is a long line of storms going back in time that have trended west in that area off the SE coast. The early Jan storm last year kept trending west, for example....but getting the temps and storm to cooperate will be a bit of a challenge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, griteater said: For Sunday/Monday, the models are going about this storm in slightly different ways. The Euro is keying on the southern wave in the gulf and detaches it a bit from the northern stream as it moves out of the gulf then northeast into the eastern Carolinas - this evolution is on the warmer side. The FV3 and UKMet are keying on the northern stream wave that drops down into Bama, then east into the Carolinas, while moreso depositing the southern wave in the gulf - this evolution is a bit colder. The GFS is kind of a blend of the two camps. I would root for the FV3/UKMet solution, but with a stronger dive and "bottoming out" of the northern stream wave. There is a long line of storms going back in time that have trended west in that area off the SE coast. The early Jan storm last year kept trending west, for example....but getting the temps and storm to cooperate will be a bit of a challenge. Yeah... NW trend can be your best friend or worse enemy... 4 days out and if it shifts much further us lowcountry SC/ENC guys are stuck with cold rain unless we luck up with a 1-million phase and drags the 850s down... It is going to be a boardwide nail biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, griteater said: For Sunday/Monday, the models are going about this storm in slightly different ways. The Euro is keying on the southern wave in the gulf and detaches it a bit from the northern stream as it moves out of the gulf then northeast into the eastern Carolinas - this evolution is on the warmer side. The FV3 and UKMet are keying on the northern stream wave that drops down into Bama, then east into the Carolinas, while moreso depositing the southern wave in the gulf - this evolution is a bit colder. The GFS is kind of a blend of the two camps. I would root for the FV3/UKMet solution, but with a stronger dive and "bottoming out" of the northern stream wave. There is a long line of storms going back in time that have trended west in that area off the SE coast. The early Jan storm last year kept trending west, for example....but getting the temps and storm to cooperate will be a bit of a challenge. Canadian is more in the FV3/UKMet camp and is colder along the coast....on to the 12z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 35 minutes ago, Lookout said: gfs and euro ensembles look pretty decent for the nw half. ....but of course areas to the east of 85 look pretty much screwed with the leeside screwzone in full effect...which means i'll likely have to make a trip to see it. But an inch or two looks possible and north/west of an atlanta to gainesville to clayton line. In fact some of the euro ensembles show several inches for the mountains. Would love to see this thing put down a few inches ahead of this arctic airmass to maximize the low temp potential. Although the euro doesn't look nearly as impressive with the outbreak as it once did. speaking of that..the 12z icon goes nuts over tn thanks to that snow cover..5 to 15 below unfortunately looks like it screws ga/sc snow wise (east of atlanta/gainesville). does keep temps in the 20s for highs though, even here in the heart of the screwzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Lookout said: speaking of that..the 12z icon goes nuts over tn thanks to that snow cover..5 to 15 below unfortunately looks like it screws ga/sc snow wise (east of atlanta/gainesville). does keep temps in the 20s for highs though, even here in the heart of the screwzone. Well it is a start.... Lots of wiggle room left for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12z GFS did exactly as I thought it would... Precip closer to the coast and temps a tick warmer for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 12z GFS did exactly as I thought it would... Precip closer to the coast and temps a tick warmer for Monday Not much change that I could see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts