BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The euro doesnt have much in the way of accumulations but it does swing through with heavy snow on 0z Wednesday, faster than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 While we got a long ways to go, maybe just maybe this will turn into something. The CMC and Euro showing at least some potential in the Day 9 time frame. Would love to see the EPS have this closer to the coast. 12z Euro below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 17 hours ago, shaggy said: Crazy temp jump today. 41 to 58 in just an hour and 15 minutes. Any size to the specks? Blowing like heck this morning, a couple rumbles of Thunder, heavy rain 1.18 inches, Hope this upcoming forecasted cold doesn't give us a major cold trout stun again this year.. @shaggy Fun catching caught like 50+ 16" inchers plus,, Got My limit of 4 @ 20" . Gulp Alive soft plastic baits, "Emerald Shiner" baits were the ticket.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 It's clear why this pattern sucks. West coast ridge is too far west and the war is forcing cutters. Next week I'd say is chasing unicorns with a piece of the PV over Chicago. Flat and suppressed and relying on fropa. Last image, don't pay attention to the colors. West ridge is further east, war is weaker and maybe more toward NAO domain. Maybe split flow? The first week of Feb looks the best to score imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 21 minutes ago, SteveVa said: I'll always be skeptical about rain to snow scenarios following a cold front. In our neck of the woods we tend to run out of precip before sufficiently cold air arrives. The Arctic front a couple of days ago was supposed to be rain-snow but precip ended before we even got to 40. Here in the NW Piedmont of NC it hardly ever works out because of downslope. There has to be a secondary trigger like a wave of LP or an upper air disturbance to wring out any left over moisture. I'm not sold yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Here's the euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: Here's the euro: Brings around 2" to mby... I'll take it over the snow drought we've had since the December storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, CaryWx said: l Let's see if it's still there when the 12z rolls out The 12z Control has it again, can't see yet if its snow or rain, but another run of a storm around Feb 1st-2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: It's clear why this pattern sucks. West coast ridge is too far west and the war is forcing cutters. Next week I'd say is chasing unicorns with a piece of the PV over Chicago. Flat and suppressed and relying on fropa. Last image, don't pay attention to the colors. West ridge is further east, war is weaker and maybe more toward NAO domain. Maybe split flow? The first week of Feb looks the best to score imo. Or maybe in between your image 2 and 3 where the PV lobe over the Great Lakes moves into SE Canada and their is a window where a wave from the west could run into cold air that has yet to retreat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 49 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Here's the euro: For all the Athens to CLT folks (the newer guys anyway) this graphic is a perfect depiction of what happens when our precip has to come over the mountains. Imagine drawing a line from Raleigh to Macon- all things being equal, you would expect that snow line to be pretty consistent. Instead you have a 200 x 100 mile area with absolutely nothing (and especially the western upstate bubble ) due to the drying effects of down slopping winds off the mtns. Unless the cold is in place before the precipitation, this is how it will go down. It's easy to understand the frustration for people in the Athens to GSP to CLT line (and to a lesser extent the Midlands) who see this over and over again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 12z Euro Control Through Feb 6th 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I am getting more confident that the Atlanta area could see an impactful event next Tuesday now that the Euro has come on board- even if it only an inch- with the temps falling quickly into the 20s by evening that would create a nightmare road scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: I am getting more confident that the Atlanta area could see an impactful event next Tuesday now that the Euro has come in board- even if it only an inch- with the temps falling quickly into the 20s by evening that would create a nightmare road scenario. You see it time and time again. The heavy snows tend to take people off the roads before the event, but the quick light hitters with plummeting temps usually create an ice skating rink that jam up roads with stuck and wrecked cars. I hope that doesn't happen, but it's certainly on the table after looking at 12z modeling. Hopefully, if this look holds the news organizations will do a good job preparing drivers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 29 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 12z Control has it again, can't see yet if its snow or rain, but another run of a storm around Feb 1st-2nd OP Euro was close to a phasing event over the western Gulf on the 12z run for the same time period. Northern stream was still just a bit too fast for the full phase, so it ended up just being a brief interaction. But you can see the precip start to blossom in the AR/LA region. Last nights control was a great example of the potential, if we can just get the timing right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 From RAH : The next chance of any precipitation will arrive on Tuesday, in association with the re-newed strong height falls accompanying the negatively-tilted trough and attendant Arctic cold front that will move through the area late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Models have trended faster, more progressive with this system, sweeping it well out into the Atlantic waters Tuesday night. Given the faster, more progressive timing with this system, the potential of seeing any significant accumulations from a rain to snow change-over, before the precipitation ends is becoming less and less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 32 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: For all the Athens to CLT folks (the newer guys anyway) this graphic is a perfect depiction of what happens when our precip has to come over the mountains. Imagine drawing a line from Raleigh to Macon- all things being equal, you would expect that snow line to be pretty consistent. Instead you have a 200 x 100 mile area with absolutely nothing (and especially the western upstate bubble ) due to the drying effects of down slopping winds off the mtns. Unless the cold is in place before the precipitation, this is how it will go down. It's easy to understand the frustration for people in the Athens to GSP to CLT line (and to a lesser extent the Midlands) who see this over and over again. There are 19, yes 19 peaks in the Great Smoky mtns over 6,000 feet. Look where that is and its easy to see why especially Mack and Lookout suffer so much. Bad enough where we are downwind of SW VA and WVA on W/ NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Control Run for next weekend 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Still snowing after that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Better yet the EPS as a whole supports precipitation coming out of the gulf in that time period. Obviously, probably not every member is snow at this point. But just seeing support build for a gulf system is enticing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Not a great look for RDU (2.5"). Couple that with progressive arctic front on Tuesday and we are limited. Realizing of course the 2/3 storm could change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Not a great look for RDU (2.5"). Couple that with progressive arctic front on Tuesday and we are limited. Realizing of course the 2/3 storm could change On the control? Just wondering because I see 11.2 for NW durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Remember guys, even if a storm is showing up 8-10 days out, most of the time we think it's to far out... the early December storm was detected by models 8+ days out and kept it right on through... let's see if this holds or trends better... aren't u glad we at least have something to track? Frontal snow and possible a big one. 2 threats within 9-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The cold is coming no doubt... man if some of these numbers next week are even close... brrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 27 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Control Run for next weekend Thats a nice looking control run for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z Euro Control Through Feb 6th Thank god the EPS saved my rear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: There are 19, yes 19 peaks in the Great Smoky mtns over 6,000 feet. Look where that is and its easy to see why especially Mack and Lookout suffer so much. Bad enough where we are downwind of SW VA and WVA on W/ NW flow. Exactly, and whole lot more area above 5000. I actually accidentally wrapped this into my previous post, but the area in question is negatively affected in two ways by those same mountains. In this set up it's the drying of moisture. In many cases it's the blocking of cold air and the warming due to the winds. In either case, the same area is often left with a brown yard. Beyond that though, it still looks like there'll be a at least a couple chances in the next couple weeks, really all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gfs shifted west again and now the fv3 has precip almost on the coast, not ready to throw in the towel for eastern NC quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Hard to ignore this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Disco Lemonade said: Hard to ignore this NW trend... We might get saved after all if the cold holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: NW trend... We might get saved after all if the cold holds serve Always bank on it. It’s almost as consistent as New England getting help to win a super bowl... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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