Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Personally I think what screwed us most was the ENSO at the start of winter... went from a forecasted modiki/weak Nino to a weak moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Personally I think what screwed us most was the ENSO at the start of winter... went from a forecasted modiki/weak Nino to a weak moderate. If you go by the CPC classification we are not in an El Niño at all. They’ve basically had it as neutral for 6 weeks now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Each 7-8 day threat is going poof or rain! Then the 8-10 day storm, poofs or rains, there’s a pattern, and it sucks for snowlovers!This. All. Day. Long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 ^^I agree this has sucked. We just need to get one of these storms to stayed modeled within 5 days. In the past it was 7 days; heck we created threads 7/8 days out. But with how the models have been performing lately, it's 5 days max. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you go by the CPC classification we are not in an El Niño at all. They’ve basically had it as neutral for 6 weeks now Just wait til the El Niño kicks in and our storms really get juiced/wet. TW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 53 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Yep same old same old it's 7 or 8 days for snow then it's another 7or 8 days for snow then another, we're going to run out of winter if something doesn't pop soon. I can't believe we've gone the whole month of January and not had a decent storm to follow, or I should say we've had a couple to follow but they go poof. I would have bet money we would have a good snow storm at least one in January and now it's looking like thru February 8 is not looking good. Don't worry, the mountain folks will get their snow in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The NAM continues to show an ice potential for areas in NE Ga, up state, and western NC. Even has some light ice at RDU. Most likely there will only be Advisors, but this could become very significant because of the cold road surfaces. .15" of freezing rain with the current cold temps would be much worse the .25 (or even higher) with warmer ground temps (like our last event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Both, 12Z RGEM and 3KNAM both show freezing rain breaking out around midnight and lasting through 16Z in the immediate lee of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, calculus1 said: Both, 12Z RGEM and 3KNAM both show freezing rain breaking out around midnight and lasting through 16Z in the immediate lee of the Apps. Has higher totals there as well. Honestly if I was the NWS I would consider Winter Storm Watches. Cold surfaces with below freezing temps and occurring overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3K NAM high resolution forecast. Looks like 0.15 at the most. I'm not sure that qualifies for Winter Storm Watches, but the accretion should happen rather easily tonight due to the conditions you mentioned, Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 WWA for here in the morning. Could be our best shot at frozen precip in this awesome pattern....lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, calculus1 said: 3K NAM high resolution forecast. Looks like 0.15 at the most. I'm not sure that qualifies for Winter Storm Watches, but the accretion should happen rather easily tonight due to the conditions you mentioned, Falls. Right at the base of the mountains there's > .25". Even down into SC there's spots of .20". The above map would be bad for the morning commute. Again, I think this could be a perfectly timed event that puts out minimal precip but causes maximum affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 How accurately does the NAM account for virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 29 minutes ago, oconeexman said: WWA for here in the morning. Could be our best shot at frozen precip in this awesome pattern....lol Yep so much for this awesome pattern, all we can get is a little ice, mercy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, oconeexman said: WWA for here in the morning. Could be our best shot at frozen precip in this awesome pattern....lol 33/5 now! Pressure 30.66!! Just your average cold snap! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Grasping at straws here, but the 12z GFS looked a little better for the 28th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Grasping at straws here, but the 12z GFS looked a little better for the 28th... Thought it did too. Curious what the FV3 shows. Evidently it’s irrelevant from what I’ve read until the energy gets through the dumpster fire of the Pacific(Rex Block). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Grasping at straws here, but the 12z GFS looked a little better for the 28th... Still think models are having problems. Look at this ice issue for tonight and tomorrow am. Not a word about it until last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Still think models are having problems. Look at this ice issue for tonight and tomorrow am. Not a word about it until last evening. Because it is really hard to trust the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Southern Track said: Thought it did too. Curious what the FV3 shows. Evidently it’s irrelevant from what I’ve read until the energy gets through the dumpster fire of the Pacific(Rex Block). Right now it is only out to hr36, but that HP near Montana is a tick south and 1mb stronger compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Still think models are having problems. Look at this ice issue for tonight and tomorrow am. Not a word about it until last evening. That's why you wait 2-3 days to get excited about anything now days! Yea, its fun to track 7-10 days in advance...only to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Moonhowl said: Don't worry, the mountain folks will get their snow in April Unfortunately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 At least tomorrow is something to watch. It will be interesting to see if trends increase for a little frozen drizzle for RDU area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 h5 is a strung out, suppressed mess... But it does try to spin up a weak low over Jacksonville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I’ve only been doing this for 5-6 years but I swear, seeing a low suppressed to Miami while we stay warm is one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Looks like Ukmet might be bringing the funk to ENC if temps are right. Bombs going off Carolina Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 UKMET is too warm at the surface along the coast but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I would rather the models be wishy washy with the storms etc, 9/10 times if the models consistently run a storm for MBY for days and days in a row especially in the 5-10 day range once we get inside 2-3 days it goes to hell......but if they don't pick up on it good till inside 5 days they tend to actually pan out much better.....I am pretty confident there will be several legit threats for many places in the SE after mid next week...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, SnowDawg said: I’ve only been doing this for 5-6 years but I swear, seeing a low suppressed to Miami while we stay warm is one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen... Look at the HP placement on the FV3. Savannah is not good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I would rather the models be wishy washy with the storms etc, 9/10 times if the models consistently run a storm for MBY for days and days in a row especially in the 5-10 day range once we get inside 2-3 days it goes to hell......but if they don't pick up on it good till inside 5 days they tend to actually pan out much better.....I am pretty confident there will be several legit threats for many places in the SE after mid next week...... I agree the models has been doing horrible with this pattern change. The data changes more frequently with abnormal patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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