FallsLake Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Where does one go to find this FV3 map? Tropical Tidbits is my favorite: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models Select Global models to see the FV3-GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Thor said: Haha Snow seems to follow you around this year. For us SE of Raleigh and the coastal plains we would love to see the suppression continue for about another 3 days. GEFS seems to be tightening some today If we actually get the cold the models have been advertising, I think suppression will happen and eastern snow will occur. Again, it's been some time since the Coastal Plain folks (especial south of Rocky Mount) have scored anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 31 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Yeah definitely not the classic case of a late bloomer. Just for all intensive purposes, at the surface it behaved like one. If the storm forms which is likely but not certain, and it's as strong as some models indicate in the Gulf I'd say the nw trend is inevitable. Maybe not much, but enough to put is in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Btw 18z GEFS was mountains only for this weekend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Btw 18z GEFS was mountains only for this weekend... It’s favored the mountains from the beginning, although means have been on a steady downward trend for them as well, but that’s what has made the multitude of eastern solutions from the OP’s more puzzling. I’d expect to at least see an eastern bullseye as well, depicting the potential for that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The temperatures for central NC look way too warm next weekend/Monday. Highs in 40s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 57 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: If the storm forms which is likely but not certain, and it's as strong as some models indicate in the Gulf I'd say the nw trend is inevitable. Maybe not much, but enough to put is in the game. As an average, you want to be about 250 miles MW of a "miller A" track. if it hugs the coast and is amped up, there will be a swath of heavy snow around that distance. That's just from all the winter storms I have witnessed in the past. In some of the the colder storms, I have seen the snow line much closer to the LP center. That's just a good rule of thumb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Sharp gradient Wednesday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 No way that temp chart verifies. 22 degree difference between Greensboro and Winston-Salem? No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: As an average, you want to be about 250 miles MW of a "miller A" track. if it hugs the coast and is amped up, there will be a swath of heavy snow around that distance. That's just from all the winter storms I have witnessed in the past. In some of the the colder storms, I have seen the snow line much closer to the LP center. That's just a good rule of thumb. RAH put out a good map that shows what kind of low and track do well for NC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Brick:” Carolina Crusher 2, electric bugaloo!” Darn skippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Regardless of what end result ends up being, GFS continues to trend further west with our piece of energy as it begins to dive into lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Resulted in too much stream separation. Wave gets strung out and left behind in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Regardless of what end result ends up being, GFS continues to trend further west with our piece of energy as it begins to dive into lower 48. Its flat as hell in the gulf. Won't amount to much this go either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: Resulted in too much stream separation. Wave gets strung out and left behind in the SW. I remember going through this the first half of last January. It's a lot to ask relying on a s/w entering in Canada and wanting it to drop in and produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: I remember going through this the first half of last January. It's a lot to ask relying on a s/w entering in Canada and wanting it to drop in and produce. Yep. Seems like heights fall in the west at the worst possible time, when we need the ridge to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 What the hell is going on with the h5 on the FV3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: No way that temp chart verifies. 22 degree difference between Greensboro and Winston-Salem? No way I've seen stranger things in Person County. If you think it's impossible think again. Hard fetch. I see two important details. There is a CAD although warm. And that's the artic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Winter Wx Advisory for parts of the area URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 347 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 ...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT MAY CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES FOR SOME AREAS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 85... .As a warm front develops tonight above cold air sitting over the Carolinas and northeast Georgia, precipitation will develop. In the parts of our area where surface temperatures fall below freezing tonight, this precipitation will occur as freezing rain. A light accumulation of ice may cause treacherous road conditions overnight into Wednesday morning. NCZ035>037-056-057-063>065-068>070-501>510-SCZ001>003-222100- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0004.190123T0500Z-190123T1700Z/ Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, and Cleveland 347 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Though less than a tenth of an inch of ice will accumulate, this will be enough to cause some roadways and sidewalks to become slick, creating hazardous travel conditions. * WHERE...Portions of northern Upstate South Carolina and the foothills and Piedmont of North Carolina, in areas generally northwest of I-85. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Wimberley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 GSP is being way too conservative with the freezing rain threat for tonight/wed morning. Not sure what models they are looking at. WWA should be extended down in the upstate. Roads along I85 are going to be a mess and they don't have that included in the advisory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I'm struck by how the 500mb pattern manages to be super suppressive with the backside waves diving into the trough, yet not overly cold at the same time 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Good news!-It looks to dry out some after this weeks deluge! Bad news- Snow threat looks minimal through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 What a morgue in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I would still take the 6z FV3 at face value. It has a small event (1-2") at day 7/8 and then a more significant event at the end of the run. Point is, these models don't have a clue. We're seeing big swings in the medium and LR, not just in the finer details but the overall pattern depiction. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 35 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I would still take the 6z FV3 at face value. It has a small event (1-2") at day 7/8 and then a more significant event at the end of the run. Point is, these models don't have a clue. We're seeing big swings in the medium and LR, not just in the finer details but the overall pattern depiction. Each 7-8 day threat is going poof or rain! Then the 8-10 day storm, poofs or rains, there’s a pattern, and it sucks for snowlovers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 19, dp 1 @ 930 am. See where we end up at 530 and if its clear enough to radiate back down before clouds roll in tonight. Raleigh nws has nada for my county. If it stays dry before 9 or 10 am wednesday good call, if not then watch out. Raleigh has a forecasted high of 52 tommorow at Greensboro. If it stays rainy all day, ill be shocked to see greensboro crack 40 mark,let alone 52 with insitu wedge. Taking the under on tommorows 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, griteater said: I'm struck by how the 500mb pattern manages to be super suppressive with the backside waves diving into the trough, yet not overly cold at the same time Just proves we really can always find new and improved ways to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 41 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I would still take the 6z FV3 at face value. It has a small event (1-2") at day 7/8 and then a more significant event at the end of the run. Point is, these models don't have a clue. We're seeing big swings in the medium and LR, not just in the finer details but the overall pattern depiction. Yep same old same old it's 7 or 8 days for snow then it's another 7or 8 days for snow then another, we're going to run out of winter if something doesn't pop soon. I can't believe we've gone the whole month of January and not had a decent storm to follow, or I should say we've had a couple to follow but they go poof. I would have bet money we would have a good snow storm at least one in January and now it's looking like thru February 8 is not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Today will mark the 10th day out of the last 13 Greensboro has been at or below normal. Big shift since January 9th. With the massive torch first 9 days of Jan, weve cut it down to +3 for january so far. Be pretty impresive if it ends up average or only +1 for month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, burrel2 said: GSP is being way too conservative with the freezing rain threat for tonight/wed morning. Not sure what models they are looking at. WWA should be extended down in the upstate. Roads along I85 are going to be a mess and they don't have that included in the advisory. I don’t know about your backyard, but down here, we are forecast to hit 43 or so today, and GSP says clouds roll in before dark, so almost no radiational cooling will be nil! With light rates, temp won’t wetbulb much, even with DPs in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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