mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, drfranklin said: As I am not native to Upstate SC, can someone please describe the 2000 Carolina Crusher scenario? Did the Greenville, SC area receive any significant snowfall? I could find online articles mentioning North Carolina totals only. It flurried here all day, as close as Spartanburg had 6-8”, we were too far NW! It blew up right off the NC coast, too far from us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Euro doesn't look great for Raleigh. I'd like to see those amounts move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Cold Rain in store... same ole, same ole.. Cold rain, warm up, cold rain.. More cold rain at 32.01 F Rather it be 50F + and Mullet/Trout fishing this Morning on aNW wind.. But It's colder than a Banker's Heart out ATM.. 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 GEFS still on our side #takeachillpill 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Canadian HATES oranges That’s impossible. Never happen. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3k NAM says if you live in the CAD areas you better watch Wednesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Snow on the 00z FV3 Pretty colors to look at. Reminds me of the 80’s metal song by Aldo Nova. “Fantasy”. If that comes close to verifying, lunch at The Varsity in Atlanta is one me for the entire board. So what if I have to drive eight hours to pay the debt. LOL Edit: The caveat is snow in Eastern NC/SC over 3”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Huge difference between the 00Z GEFS and the 06Z (much less favorable here)- going to be a while before we get any clarity. Even on the EPS there are only a bit under 50% of the members that have accumulations in Atlanta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 KAKQ NWS radar is down TFN due to some type of equipment failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Billypg70 said: Tight gradient in that storm. Downtown Greenville got flurries. West of GVL nothing. Taylors around 2 inches. Greer went from 2 inches to 6 inches. From east Greer to I 26 in Spartanburg 6 to close to a foot. East of 26 to 77 was the jackpot areas. Everyone in those areas got 16 inches to 2 feet. I remember Buffalo got over 2 feet. That's in Union county. Charlotte got 2 feet. CLT did not get 2 feet in that event, maybe 4-6". Foot line started around Marshville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 There's one member on the euro where the storm deepens to a category 2 hurricane strength just off VA Beach. Some insane individual members this morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 22 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: CLT did not get 2 feet in that event, maybe 4-6". Foot line started around Marshville. Sorry guys closing in on 50 and some of the years are running together. I got the Carolina Crusher confused with what must of been Carolina Crusher 2 looking at the snow map Feb 26 & 27 2004 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Pretty cool to see WPC jumping on the chance of this a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 3k NAM says if you live in the CAD areas you better watch Wednesday morning. So does the RGEM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, Billypg70 said: Sorry guys closing in on 50 and some of the years are running together. I got the Carolina Crusher confused with what must of been Carolina Crusher 2 looking at the snow map Feb 26 & 27 2004 No worries. That was one heck of a storm. I'll never forget Steve Crump reporting from the middle of Independence Blvd because it had been shut down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Cheeznado said: Huge difference between the 00Z GEFS and the 06Z (much less favorable here)- going to be a while before we get any clarity. Even on the EPS there are only a bit under 50% of the members that have accumulations in Atlanta. The GFS will squash southern waves like that at this range. It loves the northern stream and hates the southern stream. Taken literally based on the pattern the Op Euro is too far to the east with the track anyway. That system would probably track further west if it dug that much into the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 6z GFS spins the UL energy off into it's own semi-cutoff entity in the Gulf as it then loses connection with the northern branch.... then magically disappears into oblivion as it crosses Florida. GEM was much less consolidated with the UL energy......way more strung out. This *should* be a system more in the Euro's (and eventually UKMET's) wheelhouse. However, there is little chance of a piece of energy like this being modeled totally correctly from this range, obviously. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Noted: Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 1/21/19, 09:13 Euro Ensembles lining up grand planetary wave feature N Pole to 20 north similar to 1993 superstorm pattern, For an ensemble run given its many members pretty darn impressive below Day 8, 6-10 mean 500, day 7,8 surface Pattern is not boring, no one is snoring pic.twitter.com/xPzxN3uHFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 3k NAM says if you live in the CAD areas you better watch Wednesday morning. Yep, chances of light freezing rain (or sleet at first as gsp mentioned) have gone up. Considering the cold conditions, it won't take much to cause some slick spots on area roads tue night/wed am after this cold spell..especially in the western carolinas/extreme northern ga where temps should be below freezing or near freezing before any precip arrives. nam/3km nam is now keeping temps stuck in the 30s all day in cad areas as i expected the other day..and i wouldn't be surprised if they are still too warm since even the nam suite are showing 15 to 20 degree rise in dewpoints without much temp response. I would imagine there will be some dewpoint recovery even without precip due to southerly flow just off the surface, but it's probably a little overdone or at least not showing enough temp falls. (assuming there is enough precip). Actual lows and highs wednesday will depends on how much precip actually falls and if it will be enough to fully take advantage of the dry air/low wetbulbs. Assuming there are at least light showers around wed, i wouldn't be surprised to see it take to mid day or early afternoon to get above freezing in spots and then stay stuck in 33 to 35 range until the front passes in the heart of cad territory. Depending on model run/model, they have all hinted at an axis of heavier totals across far north ga into the upstate...on the order of 0.10 to 0.20 though mid to late morning when temps should still be below freezing. Considering the light nature of the precip which should promote freezing on elevated surfaces, could be some respectable light glazing and pretty scenes in those areas if comes to pass. 3 hours ago, Cheeznado said: Huge difference between the 00Z GEFS and the 06Z (much less favorable here)- going to be a while before we get any clarity. Even on the EPS there are only a bit under 50% of the members that have accumulations in Atlanta. I was a little surprised it was that many but in general those that have snow were big hits. But I remain highly skeptical though since we are dealing with a northern stream systems which a lot of times the models get wrong at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 46 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Noted: Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 1/21/19, 09:13 Euro Ensembles lining up grand planetary wave feature N Pole to 20 north similar to 1993 superstorm pattern, For an ensemble run given its many members pretty darn impressive below Day 8, 6-10 mean 500, day 7,8 surface Pattern is not boring, no one is snoring pic.twitter.com/xPzxN3uHFC 13/50 with at least a trace for me this close is starting to get me excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Wow. The 12Z RGEM shows 10 hours of freezing precipitation (freezing rain to sleet back to freezing rain) for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and it's still going at the end of its run: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Wow. The 12Z RGEM shows 10 hours of freezing precipitation (freezing rain to sleet back to freezing rain) for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and it's still going at the end of its run: talk about a skating rink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1037AM disco High pressure should continue to dominate on Saturday, and after a chilly start we should be up to normal temps in the 50s. Another area of low pressure will be approaching from the west on Sunday, but the models really begin to diverge at this point, so I have just gone with a blend of everything for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: talk about a skating rink Think the CMC was overdone with the last frozen event a few Saturdays back! It was constantly the coldest and most robust with frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Think the CMC was overdone with the last frozen event a few Saturdays back! It was constantly the coldest and most robust with frozen The RGEM was way overdone on cold and precip on the 12-13th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, jjwxman said: The RGEM was way overdone on cold and precip on the 12-13th event. Yeah, your right! I thought they were the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, jjwxman said: The RGEM was way overdone on cold and precip on the 12-13th event. That isnt really the same situation though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 12z GFS even hint at the icing, the early light precip, but frozen only in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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