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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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Just now, drfranklin said:

As I am not native to Upstate SC, can someone please describe the 2000 Carolina Crusher scenario? Did the Greenville, SC area receive any significant snowfall? I could find online articles mentioning North Carolina totals only.

It flurried here all day, as close as Spartanburg had 6-8”, we were too far NW! It blew up right off the NC coast, too far from us 

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Snow on the 00z FV3

8kcqpvV.gif&key=d0827da14ddea527d3c62f609baeea10016ce4af620dcef33db62d8135884c85

Pretty colors to look at. Reminds me of the 80’s metal song by Aldo Nova. “Fantasy”. If that comes close to verifying, lunch at The Varsity in Atlanta is one me for the entire board. So what if I have to drive eight hours to pay the debt. LOL

 

Edit: The caveat is snow in Eastern NC/SC over 3”.

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Just now, Billypg70 said:

Tight gradient in that storm. 

Downtown Greenville got flurries.

West of GVL nothing. Taylors around 2 inches. Greer went from 2 inches to 6 inches.

From east Greer to I 26 in Spartanburg 6 to close to a foot.

East of 26 to 77 was the jackpot areas.

Everyone in those areas got 16 inches to 2 feet.

I remember Buffalo got over 2 feet.

That's in Union county.

Charlotte got 2 feet.

CLT did not get 2 feet in that event, maybe 4-6". Foot line started around Marshville. 

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22 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

CLT did not get 2 feet in that event, maybe 4-6". Foot line started around Marshville. 

Sorry guys closing in on 50 and some of the years are running together. 

I got the Carolina Crusher confused with what must of been Carolina Crusher 2 looking at the snow map

Feb 26 & 27 2004

 

Screenshot_20190121-092620_Chrome.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Billypg70 said:

Sorry guys closing in on 50 and some of the years are running together. 

I got the Carolina Crusher confused with what must of been Carolina Crusher 2 looking at the snow map

Feb 26 & 27 2004

 

Screenshot_20190121-092620_Chrome.jpg

No worries. That was one heck of a storm. I'll never forget Steve Crump reporting from the middle of Independence Blvd because it had been shut down. 

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1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

Huge difference between the 00Z GEFS and the 06Z (much less favorable here)- going to be a while before we get any clarity. Even on the EPS there are only a bit under 50% of the members that have accumulations in Atlanta.

The GFS will squash southern waves like that at this range.  It loves the northern stream and hates the southern stream.  Taken literally based on the pattern the Op Euro is too far to the east with the track anyway.  That system would probably track further west if it dug that much into the Gulf 

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6z GFS spins the UL energy off into it's own semi-cutoff entity in the Gulf as it then loses connection with the northern branch.... then magically disappears into oblivion as it crosses Florida.

GEM was much less consolidated with the UL energy......way more strung out. 

This *should* be a system more in the Euro's (and eventually UKMET's) wheelhouse. However, there is little chance of a piece of energy like this being modeled totally correctly from this range, obviously. 

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Noted:

Joe Bastardi (‪@BigJoeBastardi‬)

1/21/19, 09:13

 

Euro Ensembles lining up grand planetary wave feature N Pole to 20 north similar to 1993 superstorm pattern, For an ensemble run given its many members pretty darn impressive below Day 8, 6-10 mean 500, day 7,8 surface Pattern is not boring, no one is snoring pic.twitter.com/xPzxN3uHFC

 

6C7DC655-FAEE-49D7-B5F1-EAB4E53CDC9C.png

A7E7CF96-9C8F-461A-833A-A09CA5E42280.png

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3 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

3k NAM says if you live in the CAD areas you better watch Wednesday morning. 

Yep, chances of light freezing rain (or sleet at first as gsp mentioned) have gone up. Considering the cold conditions, it won't take much to cause some slick spots on area roads tue night/wed am after this cold spell..especially in the western carolinas/extreme northern ga where temps should be below freezing or near freezing before any precip arrives. nam/3km nam is now keeping temps stuck in the 30s all day in cad areas as i expected the other day..and i wouldn't be surprised if they are still too warm since even the nam suite are showing 15 to 20 degree rise in dewpoints without much temp response. I would imagine there will be some dewpoint recovery even without precip due to southerly flow just off the surface, but it's probably a little overdone or at least not showing enough temp falls. (assuming there is enough precip). 

Actual lows and highs wednesday will  depends on how much precip actually falls and if it will be enough to fully take advantage of the dry air/low wetbulbs. Assuming there are at least light showers around wed, i wouldn't be surprised to see it take to mid day or early afternoon to get above freezing in spots and then stay stuck in 33 to 35 range until the front passes in the heart of cad territory. 

Depending on model run/model, they have all hinted at an axis of heavier totals across far north ga into the upstate...on the order of 0.10 to 0.20 though mid to late morning when temps should still be below freezing. Considering the light nature of the precip which should promote freezing on elevated surfaces, could be some respectable light glazing and pretty scenes in those areas if comes to pass. 

3 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

Huge difference between the 00Z GEFS and the 06Z (much less favorable here)- going to be a while before we get any clarity. Even on the EPS there are only a bit under 50% of the members that have accumulations in Atlanta.

I was a little surprised  it was that many  but in general those that have snow were big hits.   But I remain highly skeptical though since we are dealing with a northern stream systems which a lot of times the models get wrong at this range. 

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46 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Noted:

Joe Bastardi (‪@BigJoeBastardi‬)

1/21/19, 09:13

 

Euro Ensembles lining up grand planetary wave feature N Pole to 20 north similar to 1993 superstorm pattern, For an ensemble run given its many members pretty darn impressive below Day 8, 6-10 mean 500, day 7,8 surface Pattern is not boring, no one is snoring pic.twitter.com/xPzxN3uHFC

 

6C7DC655-FAEE-49D7-B5F1-EAB4E53CDC9C.png

A7E7CF96-9C8F-461A-833A-A09CA5E42280.png

13/50 with at least a trace for me this close is starting to get me excited 

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